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Pablo Carreno Busta v Valentin Royer
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Pablo Carreno Busta (Local)
Prediction 66.52%1.50fair odd
EV -1.55%
Edge -1.05%
Kelly -3.22%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.48
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.59%66.46%66.55%68.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.371.441.441.4872.99%69.66%69.44%67.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Valentin Royer (Visit)
Prediction 33.48%2.99fair odd
EV +0.433%
Edge +0.144%
Kelly +0.217%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 3.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.82%33.54%33.45%35.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.632.792.753.0038.02%35.83%36.36%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Pablo Carreno Busta (Local): 66.52%; Valentin Royer (Visit): 33.48%. For Valentin Royer (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.99. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.433%.
Sportsbook Odds (66 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovada🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -6.87%E -4.91%K -17.17%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV +0.433%E +0.144%K +0.217%G +0.001% | 4.8% | 2026-08-04 16:49 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -6.87%E -4.91%K -17.17%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV +0.433%E +0.144%K +0.217%G +0.001% | 4.8% | 2026-08-04 16:49 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -6.87%E -4.91%K -17.17%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV +0.433%E +0.144%K +0.217%G +0.001% | 4.8% | 2026-08-04 14:25 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.88%EV -6.20%E -4.40%K -15.13%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 32.12%EV -0.237%E -0.079%K -0.119%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-04 14:24 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.96%EV -6.87%E -4.91%K -17.17%G +0.000% | 2.97I 33.67%NM 32.04%EV -0.571%E -0.192%K -0.290%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-04 14:25 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 67.20%EV -4.21%E -2.92%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.80%EV -1.24%E -0.421%K -0.636%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-08-04 16:45 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 66.51%EV -2.88%E -1.97%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.49%EV -2.91%E -1.01%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-08-04 16:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.82%EV -4.21%E -2.92%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.18%EV -2.91%E -1.01%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-04 16:45 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -4.87%E -3.41%K -11.33%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -2.91%E -1.01%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-04 16:44 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -5.54%E -3.90%K -13.19%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -2.91%E -1.01%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-04 15:15 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.87%E -4.91%K -17.17%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -2.91%E -1.01%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-04 14:30 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.67%EV -4.21%E -2.92%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.33%EV -3.58%E -1.24%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-04 14:29 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -5.54%E -3.90%K -13.19%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -3.58%E -1.24%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-04 14:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -6.87%E -4.91%K -17.17%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -3.58%E -1.24%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-04 11:04 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -6.87%E -4.91%K -17.17%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -3.58%E -1.24%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-04 14:24 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 66.13%EV -2.21%E -1.50%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 33.87%EV -3.92%E -1.37%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-08-04 16:35 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -4.87%E -3.41%K -11.33%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -4.59%E -1.61%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-04 14:24 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -5.54%E -3.90%K -13.19%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -4.59%E -1.61%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-04 16:45 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -5.54%E -3.90%K -13.19%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -4.59%E -1.61%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-04 14:24 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -5.54%E -3.90%K -13.19%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -4.59%E -1.61%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-04 16:45 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -5.54%E -3.90%K -13.19%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -4.59%E -1.61%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-04 16:44 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -6.87%E -4.91%K -17.17%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -4.59%E -1.61%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-04 14:30 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.54%EV -8.86%E -6.47%K -23.96%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.46%EV -4.59%E -1.61%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-04 14:43 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.42%EV -1.55%E -1.05%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.58%EV -6.26%E -2.24%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-08-04 16:35 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.42%EV -1.55%E -1.05%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.58%EV -6.26%E -2.24%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-08-04 16:35 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -3.54%E -2.44%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -6.26%E -2.24%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-04 16:44 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -4.87%E -3.41%K -11.33%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -6.26%E -2.24%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 08:10 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -5.54%E -3.90%K -13.19%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -6.26%E -2.24%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-04 16:45 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.51%EV -6.20%E -4.40%K -15.13%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.49%EV -6.26%E -2.24%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-04 16:44 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.71%EV -4.21%E -2.92%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 2.76I 36.23%NM 34.29%EV -7.60%E -2.75%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-04 16:44 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -3.54%E -2.44%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -7.94%E -2.89%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 16:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.21%E -2.92%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.94%E -2.89%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-04 08:09 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.21%E -2.92%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.94%E -2.89%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-04 08:09 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.21%E -2.92%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.94%E -2.89%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-04 08:10 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.21%E -2.92%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.94%E -2.89%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-04 16:19 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.21%E -2.92%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.94%E -2.89%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-04 08:09 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -4.87%E -3.41%K -11.33%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -7.94%E -2.89%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-04 16:50 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -5.54%E -3.90%K -13.19%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -7.94%E -2.89%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-02 19:15 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.11%EV -6.20%E -4.40%K -15.13%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.89%EV -7.94%E -2.89%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-04 16:45 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.87%E -4.91%K -17.17%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -7.94%E -2.89%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-04 16:50 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.87%E -4.91%K -17.17%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -7.94%E -2.89%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-04 11:53 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.87%E -4.91%K -17.17%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -7.94%E -2.89%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-04 11:49 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.87%E -4.91%K -17.17%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -7.94%E -2.89%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-04 08:04 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.87%E -4.91%K -17.17%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -7.94%E -2.89%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-04 08:05 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.59%EV -8.20%E -5.94%K -21.58%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.41%EV -7.94%E -2.89%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-04 16:48 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -1.55%E -1.05%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -9.61%E -3.56%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-04 14:45 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -1.55%E -1.05%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -9.61%E -3.56%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-04 16:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -2.21%E -1.50%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -9.61%E -3.56%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-04 14:44 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -2.21%E -1.50%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -9.61%E -3.56%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-04 14:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -2.21%E -1.50%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -9.61%E -3.56%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-04 14:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -2.21%E -1.50%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -9.61%E -3.56%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-04 14:45 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -2.21%E -1.50%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -9.61%E -3.56%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-04 14:45 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -2.21%E -1.50%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -9.61%E -3.56%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-04 14:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -2.21%E -1.50%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -9.61%E -3.56%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-04 14:44 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -2.21%E -1.50%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -9.61%E -3.56%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-04 14:45 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -2.21%E -1.50%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -9.61%E -3.56%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-04 14:45 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -2.21%E -1.50%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -9.61%E -3.56%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-04 14:45 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -2.21%E -1.50%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -9.61%E -3.56%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-04 14:44 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -2.21%E -1.50%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -9.61%E -3.56%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-04 14:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -2.21%E -1.50%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -9.61%E -3.56%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-04 14:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -2.21%E -1.50%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -9.61%E -3.56%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-04 14:45 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -3.54%E -2.44%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -9.61%E -3.56%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-04 08:04 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -3.54%E -2.44%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -9.61%E -3.56%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-04 14:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -3.54%E -2.44%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -9.61%E -3.56%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-04 08:10 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -5.54%E -3.90%K -13.19%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -9.61%E -3.56%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-04 16:50 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.78%EV -4.87%E -3.41%K -11.33%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.22%EV -11.95%E -4.55%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-04 14:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.48I 67.57%NM 67.33% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.67% | 0.4% | 2026-08-04 16:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.48I 67.57%NM 67.33% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.67% | 0.4% | 2026-08-04 16:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.48I 67.57%NM 67.33% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.67% | 0.4% | 2026-08-04 16:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.48I 67.57%NM 66.96% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.04% | 0.9% | 2026-08-04 16:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.48I 67.57%NM 66.96% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.04% | 0.9% | 2026-08-04 16:35 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.48I 67.57%NM 66.82% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 33.18% | 1.1% | 2026-08-04 16:35 |
| Novig◎ | 1.46I 68.49%NM 66.82% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.18% | 2.5% | 2026-08-04 16:50 |
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