Language:English
Martin Damm Jr. v Stefanos Tsitsipas
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Martin Damm Jr. (Local)
Prediction 35.96%2.78fair odd
EV -0.385%
Edge -0.139%
Kelly -0.218%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.77
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.52%36.15%35.93%38.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.612.632.7741.67%38.26%38.02%36.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Stefanos Tsitsipas (Visit)
Prediction 64.04%1.56fair odd
EV -2.02%
Edge -1.32%
Kelly -3.82%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.53
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.07%63.85%64.07%65.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.421.481.481.5370.42%67.50%67.57%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Martin Damm Jr. (Local): 35.96%; Stefanos Tsitsipas (Visit): 64.04%. For Martin Damm Jr. (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.78. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.77, with an expected value of -0.385%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (65 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.77I 36.10%NM 34.52%EV -0.385%E -0.139%K -0.218%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.48%EV -6.50%E -4.46%K -14.14%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-04 14:54 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.76I 36.23%NM 35.21%EV -0.745%E -0.270%K -0.423%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.79%EV -3.94%E -2.63%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-08-04 14:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 35.29%EV -1.10%E -0.402%K -0.631%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.71%EV -3.94%E -2.63%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-08-04 14:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -2.90%E -1.07%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -3.94%E -2.63%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-04 15:00 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -2.90%E -1.07%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -3.94%E -2.63%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-04 13:14 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -2.90%E -1.07%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -7.15%E -4.93%K -15.88%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-04 14:49 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.68I 37.31%NM 35.73%EV -3.62%E -1.35%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.27%EV -4.58%E -3.08%K -9.35%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-04 14:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.68I 37.31%NM 35.27%EV -3.62%E -1.35%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.73%EV -6.50%E -4.46%K -14.14%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-04 15:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.66I 37.59%NM 35.75%EV -4.34%E -1.63%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.25%EV -5.22%E -3.53%K -10.88%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-04 14:54 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -4.70%E -1.77%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -3.94%E -2.63%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-04 13:14 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.99%EV -4.70%E -1.77%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.01%EV -4.58%E -3.08%K -9.35%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-04 14:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.99%EV -4.70%E -1.77%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.01%EV -4.58%E -3.08%K -9.35%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-04 15:00 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.99%EV -4.70%E -1.77%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.01%EV -4.58%E -3.08%K -9.35%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-04 14:04 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.70%E -1.77%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.22%E -3.53%K -10.88%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 14:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.70%E -1.77%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.22%E -3.53%K -10.88%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 15:00 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -4.70%E -1.77%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -5.86%E -3.99%K -12.48%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-04 14:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%EV -4.70%E -1.77%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11%EV -9.07%E -6.38%K -21.59%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-04 13:59 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.78%EV -5.42%E -2.06%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.22%EV -2.02%E -1.32%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-04 14:45 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.78%EV -5.42%E -2.06%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.22%EV -2.02%E -1.32%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-04 14:45 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -5.42%E -2.06%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -3.94%E -2.63%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-04 14:25 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -5.42%E -2.06%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -3.94%E -2.63%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-04 14:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.01%EV -5.42%E -2.06%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.99%EV -5.22%E -3.53%K -10.88%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 13:59 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.01%EV -5.42%E -2.06%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.99%EV -5.22%E -3.53%K -10.88%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 14:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.01%EV -5.42%E -2.06%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.99%EV -5.22%E -3.53%K -10.88%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 14:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.01%EV -5.42%E -2.06%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.99%EV -5.22%E -3.53%K -10.88%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 13:59 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.01%EV -5.42%E -2.06%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.99%EV -5.22%E -3.53%K -10.88%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 13:59 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.01%EV -5.42%E -2.06%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.99%EV -5.22%E -3.53%K -10.88%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 13:59 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.01%EV -5.42%E -2.06%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.99%EV -5.22%E -3.53%K -10.88%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 13:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.01%EV -5.42%E -2.06%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.99%EV -5.22%E -3.53%K -10.88%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 14:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.01%EV -5.42%E -2.06%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.99%EV -5.22%E -3.53%K -10.88%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 14:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.01%EV -5.42%E -2.06%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.99%EV -5.22%E -3.53%K -10.88%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 14:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.01%EV -5.42%E -2.06%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.99%EV -5.22%E -3.53%K -10.88%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 13:59 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.01%EV -5.42%E -2.06%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.99%EV -5.22%E -3.53%K -10.88%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 14:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.01%EV -5.42%E -2.06%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.99%EV -5.22%E -3.53%K -10.88%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 14:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.01%EV -5.42%E -2.06%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.99%EV -5.22%E -3.53%K -10.88%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 14:00 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -5.78%E -2.21%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -3.94%E -2.63%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-04 11:29 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.63%EV -5.78%E -2.21%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.37%EV -7.15%E -4.93%K -15.88%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-04 14:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -5.78%E -2.21%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -7.79%E -5.41%K -17.69%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-04 14:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -5.78%E -2.21%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -7.79%E -5.41%K -17.69%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-04 14:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -5.78%E -2.21%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -7.79%E -5.41%K -17.69%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-04 14:50 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -6.50%E -2.50%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -2.02%E -1.32%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-04 12:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.50%E -2.50%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.94%E -2.63%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-04 13:59 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.50%E -2.50%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.94%E -2.63%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-04 14:49 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -6.50%E -2.50%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.22%E -3.53%K -10.88%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-04 13:59 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -6.50%E -2.50%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.22%E -3.53%K -10.88%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-04 14:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -6.50%E -2.50%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.22%E -3.53%K -10.88%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-04 14:24 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -6.50%E -2.50%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.22%E -3.53%K -10.88%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-04 14:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -6.50%E -2.50%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -5.86%E -3.99%K -12.48%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-04 15:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -6.50%E -2.50%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -5.86%E -3.99%K -12.48%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-04 15:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -6.50%E -2.50%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.04%EV -6.50%E -4.46%K -14.14%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-04 14:25 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -6.50%E -2.50%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -7.15%E -4.93%K -15.88%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-04 14:54 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -6.50%E -2.50%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -7.15%E -4.93%K -15.88%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-04 14:54 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.57I 38.91%NM 36.70%EV -7.58%E -2.95%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.30%EV -4.58%E -3.08%K -9.35%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-04 14:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -8.30%E -3.25%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -3.94%E -2.63%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-04 15:04 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -8.30%E -3.25%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -5.22%E -3.53%K -10.88%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-04 14:50 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -8.30%E -3.25%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -7.15%E -4.93%K -15.88%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-04 13:59 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -8.30%E -3.25%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -7.15%E -4.93%K -15.88%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-04 15:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.93%EV -8.30%E -3.25%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.07%EV -8.43%E -5.89%K -19.59%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-04 15:04 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -10.09%E -4.04%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -2.02%E -1.32%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-03 10:05 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -10.09%E -4.04%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -3.94%E -2.63%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-04 15:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -10.09%E -4.04%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -3.94%E -2.63%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-04 15:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -10.09%E -4.04%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -3.94%E -2.63%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-04 14:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -10.09%E -4.04%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -3.94%E -2.63%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-04 14:59 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.50%EV -11.89%E -4.85%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.50%EV -5.86%E -3.99%K -12.48%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-04 15:03 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -13.69%E -5.70%K -9.78%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -2.02%E -1.32%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-03 21:04 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.85% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 65.15% | 0.3% | 2026-08-04 15:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.85% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 65.15% | 0.3% | 2026-08-04 15:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.85% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 65.15% | 0.3% | 2026-08-04 15:00 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.82I 35.46%NM 35.17% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 64.83% | 0.8% | 2026-08-04 15:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.80I 35.71%NM 35.33% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 64.67% | 1.1% | 2026-08-04 15:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.82I 35.46%NM 34.72% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 65.28% | 2.1% | 2026-08-04 14:55 |
| Novig◎ | 2.78I 35.97%NM 34.74% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.26% | 3.5% | 2026-08-04 15:00 |
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