Language:English
Ignacio Buse v Cameron Norrie
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Ignacio Buse (Local)
Prediction 31.71%3.15fair odd
EV -0.100%
Edge -0.032%
Kelly -0.047%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.49%31.72%31.82%33.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.952.953.1535.71%33.85%33.90%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Cameron Norrie (Visit)
Prediction 68.29%1.46fair odd
EV -3.03%
Edge -2.14%
Kelly -7.22%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.42
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.35%68.28%68.18%69.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.351.391.401.4274.07%71.75%71.43%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ignacio Buse (Local): 31.71%; Cameron Norrie (Visit): 68.29%. For Ignacio Buse (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.153. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.150, with an expected value of -0.100%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (66 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.77%EV -0.100%E -0.032%K -0.047%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 69.23%EV -4.40%E -3.14%K -11.00%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-05 16:45 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.11I 32.15%NM 31.19%EV -1.37%E -0.440%K -0.649%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.81%EV -3.72%E -2.64%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-08-05 17:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.11I 32.15%NM 30.58%EV -1.37%E -0.440%K -0.649%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.42%EV -6.45%E -4.71%K -17.43%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-05 15:49 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -1.69%E -0.544%K -0.803%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -5.77%E -4.18%K -15.17%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-05 15:49 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -1.69%E -0.544%K -0.803%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -7.13%E -5.24%K -19.81%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-05 15:50 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.61%EV -3.27%E -1.07%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.39%EV -3.72%E -2.64%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-05 15:45 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.04I 32.89%NM 31.69%EV -3.59%E -1.18%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.31%EV -3.72%E -2.64%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-05 15:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.04I 32.89%NM 31.69%EV -3.59%E -1.18%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.31%EV -3.72%E -2.64%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-05 15:50 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.04I 32.89%NM 31.22%EV -3.59%E -1.18%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.78%EV -5.77%E -4.18%K -15.17%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-05 16:55 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.02I 33.11%NM 31.83%EV -4.22%E -1.40%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.17%EV -3.72%E -2.64%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-05 15:50 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.86%E -1.62%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.40%E -3.14%K -11.00%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-05 15:45 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.86%E -1.62%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.40%E -3.14%K -11.00%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-05 15:45 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.86%E -1.62%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.40%E -3.14%K -11.00%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-05 15:44 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.86%E -1.62%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.40%E -3.14%K -11.00%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-05 15:48 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.86%E -1.62%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.40%E -3.14%K -11.00%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-05 15:45 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.86%E -1.62%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.40%E -3.14%K -11.00%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-05 15:45 |
| ReBet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.86%E -1.62%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.40%E -3.14%K -11.00%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-05 15:45 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.86%E -1.62%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.40%E -3.14%K -11.00%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-05 15:45 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.86%E -1.62%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.40%E -3.14%K -11.00%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-05 15:45 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.86%E -1.62%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.40%E -3.14%K -11.00%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-05 15:50 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.86%E -1.62%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.40%E -3.14%K -11.00%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-05 16:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -4.86%E -1.62%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.77%E -4.18%K -15.17%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-05 16:45 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.35%EV -4.86%E -1.62%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -6.45%E -4.71%K -17.43%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-05 16:48 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -4.86%E -1.62%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.13%E -5.24%K -19.81%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-05 16:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -4.86%E -1.62%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.13%E -5.24%K -19.81%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-05 15:45 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -4.86%E -1.62%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.13%E -5.24%K -19.81%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-05 15:45 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -4.86%E -1.62%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.13%E -5.24%K -19.81%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-05 15:49 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -4.86%E -1.62%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -7.81%E -5.79%K -22.33%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-05 15:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -4.86%E -1.62%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -7.81%E -5.79%K -22.33%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-05 15:55 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.97I 33.67%NM 31.57%EV -5.81%E -1.96%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.43%EV -6.45%E -4.71%K -17.43%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-05 15:50 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -6.44%E -2.18%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.40%E -3.14%K -11.00%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 15:45 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -6.44%E -2.18%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -5.77%E -4.18%K -15.17%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-05 15:45 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -6.44%E -2.18%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.29%EV -6.45%E -4.71%K -17.43%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-05 15:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.40%EV -6.44%E -2.18%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.60%EV -7.81%E -5.79%K -22.33%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-05 15:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.94I 34.01%NM 32.41%EV -6.76%E -2.30%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.59%EV -3.72%E -2.64%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-05 13:39 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -8.03%E -2.77%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -3.03%E -2.14%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -8.03%E -2.77%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -3.72%E -2.64%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -8.03%E -2.77%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -3.72%E -2.64%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -8.03%E -2.77%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -3.72%E -2.64%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -8.03%E -2.77%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -3.72%E -2.64%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -8.03%E -2.77%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -3.72%E -2.64%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -8.03%E -2.77%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -3.72%E -2.64%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -8.03%E -2.77%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -3.72%E -2.64%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -8.03%E -2.77%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -3.72%E -2.64%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -8.03%E -2.77%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -3.72%E -2.64%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -8.03%E -2.77%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -3.72%E -2.64%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -8.03%E -2.77%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -3.72%E -2.64%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -8.03%E -2.77%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -3.72%E -2.64%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -8.03%E -2.77%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -3.72%E -2.64%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -8.03%E -2.77%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -3.72%E -2.64%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -8.03%E -2.77%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.40%E -3.14%K -11.00%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-05 15:45 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -8.03%E -2.77%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.40%E -3.14%K -11.00%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-05 15:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -8.03%E -2.77%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.40%E -3.14%K -11.00%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-05 15:45 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -8.03%E -2.77%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.40%E -3.14%K -11.00%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-05 15:45 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -8.03%E -2.77%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.40%E -3.14%K -11.00%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-05 15:45 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -8.03%E -2.77%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.40%E -3.14%K -11.00%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-05 15:45 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -8.03%E -2.77%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -5.77%E -4.18%K -15.17%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-05 15:49 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -8.03%E -2.77%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -5.77%E -4.18%K -15.17%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-05 15:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -8.66%E -3.01%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -4.40%E -3.14%K -11.00%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-05 16:35 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -8.66%E -3.01%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -7.13%E -5.24%K -19.81%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-05 16:30 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -8.66%E -3.01%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -7.13%E -5.24%K -19.81%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-05 16:30 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.87I 34.84%NM 33.10%EV -8.98%E -3.13%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.90%EV -3.03%E -2.14%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 13:39 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -9.61%E -3.37%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -3.03%E -2.14%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-05 16:55 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -9.61%E -3.37%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.38%EV -5.77%E -4.18%K -15.17%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-05 13:45 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -11.20%E -4.00%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -3.03%E -2.14%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-05 16:55 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -11.20%E -4.00%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -4.40%E -3.14%K -11.00%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-05 15:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.18% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.82% | 0.2% | 2026-08-05 17:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.97% | 0.7% | 2026-08-05 16:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.97% | 0.7% | 2026-08-05 16:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.48% | 0.7% | 2026-08-05 17:00 |
| Novig◎ | 3.13I 31.95%NM 31.66% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.34% | 0.9% | 2026-08-05 16:55 |
| ProphetX◎ | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.37% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.63% | 1.2% | 2026-08-05 16:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.42% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 68.58% | 2.7% | 2026-08-05 17:00 |