Language:English
Aleksandar Kovacevic v Nuno Borges
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Aleksandar Kovacevic (Local)
Prediction 33.90%2.95fair odd
EV +5.08%
Edge +1.64%
Kelly +2.42%
Growth +0.123%
assuming max odds 3.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.49%33.81%33.73%35.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.882.873.1039.22%34.76%34.90%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Nuno Borges (Visit)
Prediction 66.10%1.51fair odd
EV -1.51%
Edge -1.01%
Kelly -3.07%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.49
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.20%66.19%66.27%69.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.351.411.401.4974.07%71.10%71.43%67.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Aleksandar Kovacevic (Local): 33.90%; Nuno Borges (Visit): 66.10%. For Aleksandar Kovacevic (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.95. 21 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.08%.
Sportsbook Odds (64 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV +5.08%E +1.64%K +2.42%G +0.123% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -9.44%E -6.89%K -25.51%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-02 15:04 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV +5.08%E +1.64%K +2.42%G +0.123% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -9.44%E -6.89%K -25.51%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-02 15:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +5.08%E +1.64%K +2.42%G +0.123% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -10.10%E -7.43%K -28.05%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-02 15:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +5.08%E +1.64%K +2.42%G +0.123% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -10.10%E -7.43%K -28.05%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-02 15:04 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +5.08%E +1.64%K +2.42%G +0.123% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -10.10%E -7.43%K -28.05%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-02 15:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +5.08%E +1.64%K +2.42%G +0.123% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -10.10%E -7.43%K -28.05%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-02 15:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +5.08%E +1.64%K +2.42%G +0.123% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -10.10%E -7.43%K -28.05%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-02 15:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +5.08%E +1.64%K +2.42%G +0.123% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -10.10%E -7.43%K -28.05%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-02 15:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +5.08%E +1.64%K +2.42%G +0.123% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -10.10%E -7.43%K -28.05%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-02 15:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +5.08%E +1.64%K +2.42%G +0.123% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -10.10%E -7.43%K -28.05%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-02 15:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +5.08%E +1.64%K +2.42%G +0.123% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -10.10%E -7.43%K -28.05%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-02 15:04 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +5.08%E +1.64%K +2.42%G +0.123% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -10.10%E -7.43%K -28.05%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-02 15:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +5.08%E +1.64%K +2.42%G +0.123% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -10.10%E -7.43%K -28.05%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-02 15:04 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +5.08%E +1.64%K +2.42%G +0.123% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -10.10%E -7.43%K -28.05%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-02 15:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +5.08%E +1.64%K +2.42%G +0.123% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -10.10%E -7.43%K -28.05%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-02 15:05 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +5.08%E +1.64%K +2.42%G +0.123% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -10.10%E -7.43%K -28.05%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-02 15:03 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.43%EV +1.69%E +0.563%K +0.845%G +0.014% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 67.57%EV -4.81%E -3.34%K -10.94%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-08-02 15:04 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.43%EV +1.69%E +0.563%K +0.845%G +0.014% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 67.57%EV -4.81%E -3.34%K -10.94%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-08-02 13:25 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV +1.69%E +0.563%K +0.845%G +0.014% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -6.13%E -4.32%K -14.60%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-02 12:24 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV +1.69%E +0.563%K +0.845%G +0.014% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -7.46%E -5.33%K -18.64%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-02 15:04 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV +1.69%E +0.563%K +0.845%G +0.014% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -7.46%E -5.33%K -18.64%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-02 14:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -0.004%E -0.001%K -0.002%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -6.13%E -4.32%K -14.60%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-02 14:54 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.40%EV -0.004%E -0.001%K -0.002%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.60%EV -10.76%E -7.97%K -30.74%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-02 13:49 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.93I 34.13%NM 32.80%EV -0.682%E -0.233%K -0.354%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.20%EV -5.47%E -3.83%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-02 12:14 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.93I 34.13%NM 32.80%EV -0.682%E -0.233%K -0.354%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.20%EV -5.47%E -3.83%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-02 12:14 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.93I 34.13%NM 32.49%EV -0.682%E -0.233%K -0.354%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.51%EV -6.79%E -4.82%K -16.57%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-02 13:19 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.56%EV -1.02%E -0.350%K -0.532%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.44%EV -6.79%E -4.82%K -16.57%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-02 14:54 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -1.70%E -0.586%K -0.894%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -6.13%E -4.32%K -14.60%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-02 14:09 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.89I 34.60%NM 33.26%EV -2.04%E -0.705%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.74%EV -4.81%E -3.34%K -10.94%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-02 13:24 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -2.38%E -0.825%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -7.46%E -5.33%K -18.64%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-02 14:54 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -2.38%E -0.825%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -7.46%E -5.33%K -18.64%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-02 14:54 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -2.38%E -0.825%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -7.46%E -5.33%K -18.64%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-02 13:54 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -3.39%E -1.19%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.47%E -3.83%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-02 12:53 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -3.39%E -1.19%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -6.13%E -4.32%K -14.60%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-02 15:04 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.30%EV -3.39%E -1.19%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.70%EV -10.10%E -7.43%K -28.05%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-02 14:14 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.30%EV -3.39%E -1.19%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.70%EV -10.10%E -7.43%K -28.05%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-02 15:05 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -5.09%E -1.82%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -6.13%E -4.32%K -14.60%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-02 15:05 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -5.09%E -1.82%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -6.13%E -4.32%K -14.60%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-02 13:54 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -5.09%E -1.82%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -7.46%E -5.33%K -18.64%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-02 15:05 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -5.09%E -1.82%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -7.46%E -5.33%K -18.64%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-02 14:35 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.78I 35.97%NM 34.12%EV -5.77%E -2.07%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.88%EV -4.81%E -3.34%K -10.94%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-02 14:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 35.14%EV -6.78%E -2.47%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.86%EV -1.51%E -1.01%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-02 15:04 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.78%E -2.47%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.15%E -2.86%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-02 14:59 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.78%E -2.47%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.81%E -3.34%K -10.94%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-02 14:53 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.78%E -2.47%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.81%E -3.34%K -10.94%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-02 14:50 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -6.78%E -2.47%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -6.13%E -4.32%K -14.60%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-02 14:09 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -6.78%E -2.47%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.46%E -5.33%K -18.64%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-02 14:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -6.78%E -2.47%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.46%E -5.33%K -18.64%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-02 15:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -6.78%E -2.47%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.46%E -5.33%K -18.64%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-02 15:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -6.78%E -2.47%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.46%E -5.33%K -18.64%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-02 15:05 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -6.78%E -2.47%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.46%E -5.33%K -18.64%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-02 13:40 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -6.78%E -2.47%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.46%E -5.33%K -18.64%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-02 14:03 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -6.78%E -2.47%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.46%E -5.33%K -18.64%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-02 15:04 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -8.48%E -3.14%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -2.83%E -1.92%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-02 14:59 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -8.48%E -3.14%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -4.81%E -3.34%K -10.94%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-02 13:19 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -8.48%E -3.14%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -4.81%E -3.34%K -10.94%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-02 14:15 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -10.17%E -3.84%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -2.83%E -1.92%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-02 15:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -10.17%E -3.84%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -2.83%E -1.92%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-02 15:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -10.17%E -3.84%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.48%EV -3.49%E -2.39%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-02 15:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -10.17%E -3.84%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -4.81%E -3.34%K -10.94%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-02 15:04 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.05%EV -10.17%E -3.84%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.95%EV -5.47%E -3.83%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-02 15:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -11.87%E -4.56%K -7.42%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -4.15%E -2.86%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-02 14:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -11.87%E -4.56%K -7.42%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -4.15%E -2.86%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-02 15:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.77%EV -13.56%E -5.32%K -8.75%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 64.23%EV -6.13%E -4.32%K -14.60%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-02 15:04 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.52% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.48% | 0.8% | 2026-08-02 15:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.52% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.48% | 0.8% | 2026-08-02 15:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.52% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.48% | 0.8% | 2026-08-02 15:05 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.04% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 66.96% | 0.9% | 2026-08-02 15:05 |
| Novig◎ | 3.03I 33.00%NM 32.67% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.33% | 1.0% | 2026-08-02 15:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.37% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 67.63% | 1.3% | 2026-08-02 15:05 |
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