StandardmodellInterkvartilmedelvärde (Kurerad lista)

Tomas Machac v Sebastian Baez

Matchstart: 2026-04-14 13:40 UTC

Slutodds — de beräknade sannolikheterna och väntevärdet från de sista odds som registrerades före matchstart, enligt den valda modellen. Matchen har börjat, så siffrorna är inte aktuella realtidsvärden. Bedöm tillförlitligheten hos varje modells sannolikhetsprognoser mot utfallen i samtliga avgjorda matcher →

Matchresultat

63 spelbolag (22 i analysen )

Beräknad sannolikhet för varje utfall enligt modellen: Interkvartilmedelvärde (Kurerad lista)

Tomas Machac (Hemma)

Prognos 58.39%1.71rättvist odds
EV -1.90%
Fördel -1.13%
Kelly -2.79%
Tillväxt +0.000%

med antagandet om högsta odds 1.68

Fördelning av spelbolagens sannolikhetsprognoser
56.85%58.33%58.43%59.74%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.
Oddsfördelning
1.551.621.621.6864.52%61.63%61.73%59.52%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.

Sebastian Baez (Borta)

Prognos 41.61%2.40rättvist odds
EV -2.22%
Fördel -0.946%
Kelly -1.65%
Tillväxt +0.000%

med antagandet om högsta odds 2.35

Fördelning av spelbolagens sannolikhetsprognoser
40.26%41.67%41.57%43.15%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.
Oddsfördelning
2.202.272.282.3545.45%44.06%43.86%42.55%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.

Vid de sista oddsen före start uppskattade Interkvartilmedelvärde (Kurerad lista) för Matchresultat: Tomas Machac (Hemma): 58.39%; Sebastian Baez (Borta): 41.61%. För Tomas Machac (Hemma) motsvarade uppskattningen ett rättvist decimalodds på 1.71. Inget kvalificerat spelbolag erbjöd slutodds över den nivån: bästa odds var 1.68, med väntevärdet -1.90%; det gav inget positivt väntevärde.

Spelbolagsodds (63 spelbolag)

Vi är inte knutna till något spelbolag och får ingen ersättning för transaktioner som genomförs hos dem.

SpelbolagHemma ▼BortaMarginalUppdaterat
Pinnacle🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.89%EV -1.90%E -1.13%K -2.79%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 42.11%EV -3.89%E -1.68%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.8%2026-04-14 13:25
LowVig.ag🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -2.48%E -1.49%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-14 13:24
BetOnline.ag🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -2.48%E -1.49%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-14 13:25
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -2.48%E -1.49%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -6.38%E -2.84%K -5.11%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-14 13:25
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.48%E -1.49%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -8.46%E -3.85%K -7.05%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-14 13:25
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.48%E -1.49%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -8.46%E -3.85%K -7.05%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-14 13:24
Caesars🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.48%E -1.49%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -8.46%E -3.85%K -7.05%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-14 13:24
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.48%E -1.49%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -8.46%E -3.85%K -7.05%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-14 13:25
888sport (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.48%E -1.49%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -8.46%E -3.85%K -7.05%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-14 13:25
1xBet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -3.07%E -1.85%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -7.22%E -3.24%K -5.87%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-14 13:24
Bovada🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.65%E -2.21%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-14 13:25
Coolbet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.65%E -2.21%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.38%E -2.84%K -5.11%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-14 13:25
Winamax (DE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.90%EV -4.24%E -2.58%K -6.62%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.10%EV -2.22%E -0.946%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-14 13:25
Betclic (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.69%EV -4.24%E -2.58%K -6.62%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.31%EV -3.06%E -1.31%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-14 13:22
Bet Right🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.95%EV -4.24%E -2.58%K -6.62%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.05%EV -5.97%E -2.64%K -4.74%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-14 13:24
DraftKings🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.42%EV -4.82%E -2.96%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 41.58%EV -4.72%E -2.06%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-14 13:25
Marathon Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.21%EV -4.82%E -2.96%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.79%EV -5.55%E -2.45%K -4.37%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-14 13:24
Unibet (FR)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -4.82%E -2.96%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -6.38%E -2.84%K -5.11%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-14 13:25
Betr (AU)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -4.82%E -2.96%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -6.38%E -2.84%K -5.11%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-14 13:25
PlayUp🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -4.82%E -2.96%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -6.38%E -2.84%K -5.11%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-14 13:24
Fanatics🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -5.40%E -3.34%K -8.72%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -2.22%E -0.946%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-14 13:24
FanDuel🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -5.40%E -3.34%K -8.72%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -3.47%E -1.50%K -2.63%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-14 13:25
Unibet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.40%E -3.34%K -8.72%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-14 13:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.40%E -3.34%K -8.72%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-14 13:25
Unibet (NL)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.40%E -3.34%K -8.72%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-14 13:25
TABtouch🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.40%E -3.34%K -8.72%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-14 13:25
LeoVegas🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.40%E -3.34%K -8.72%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-14 13:25
Grosvenor🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.40%E -3.34%K -8.72%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-14 13:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.40%E -3.34%K -8.72%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-14 13:24
Casumo🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.40%E -3.34%K -8.72%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-14 13:25
BetUS🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.40%E -3.34%K -8.72%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-14 13:25
BetRivers🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.40%E -3.34%K -8.72%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-14 13:24
ATG (SE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.40%E -3.34%K -8.72%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-14 13:25
Bally Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.40%E -3.34%K -8.72%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-14 13:25
betPARX🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.40%E -3.34%K -8.72%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-14 13:24
Svenska Spel🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.40%E -3.34%K -8.72%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-14 13:25
theScore Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.40%E -3.34%K -8.72%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-14 13:25
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.40%E -3.34%K -8.72%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-14 13:24
ReBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.40%E -3.34%K -8.72%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-14 13:25
BetMGM🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.40%E -3.34%K -8.72%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.38%E -2.84%K -5.11%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-14 13:25
Sky Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.40%E -3.34%K -8.72%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.38%E -2.84%K -5.11%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-14 13:24
TAB🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -5.40%E -3.34%K -8.72%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -8.46%E -3.85%K -7.05%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-14 13:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -5.40%E -3.34%K -8.72%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -8.46%E -3.85%K -7.05%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-14 13:25
Neds🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -5.40%E -3.34%K -8.72%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -8.46%E -3.85%K -7.05%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-14 13:25
GTbets🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -5.99%E -3.72%K -9.82%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -3.06%E -1.31%K -2.30%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-14 13:24
Betway🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -5.99%E -3.72%K -9.82%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-14 13:25
NordicBet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.61%EV -5.99%E -3.72%K -9.82%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.39%EV -5.14%E -2.25%K -4.01%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-14 13:25
Betsson🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.61%EV -5.99%E -3.72%K -9.82%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.39%EV -5.14%E -2.25%K -4.01%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-14 13:25
Codere (IT)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.61%EV -5.99%E -3.72%K -9.82%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.39%EV -5.14%E -2.25%K -4.01%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-14 13:24
LiveScore Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.76%EV -6.57%E -4.11%K -10.95%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.24%EV -5.14%E -2.25%K -4.01%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-14 13:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.76%EV -6.57%E -4.11%K -10.95%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.24%EV -5.14%E -2.25%K -4.01%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-14 13:25
Winamax (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -6.57%E -4.11%K -10.95%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -6.38%E -2.84%K -5.11%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-14 13:25
Coral🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.57%E -4.11%K -10.95%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -8.46%E -3.85%K -7.05%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-14 13:24
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.57%E -4.11%K -10.95%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -8.46%E -3.85%K -7.05%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-14 13:25
Bet Victor🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.57%E -4.11%K -10.95%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -8.46%E -3.85%K -7.05%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-14 13:22
Everygame🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.57%E -4.11%K -10.95%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -8.46%E -3.85%K -7.05%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-14 13:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -7.16%E -4.50%K -12.13%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-14 13:25
Fliff🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.59%EV -7.16%E -4.50%K -12.13%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.41%EV -6.38%E -2.84%K -5.11%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-14 13:25
SportsBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.96%EV -7.74%E -4.90%K -13.34%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.04%EV -5.55%E -2.45%K -4.37%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-14 13:25
NetBet (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.42%EV -7.74%E -4.90%K -13.34%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.58%EV -7.63%E -3.44%K -6.26%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-14 13:25
PMU (FR)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -8.32%E -5.30%K -14.60%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -6.38%E -2.84%K -5.11%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-14 13:25
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -8.32%E -5.30%K -14.60%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -6.38%E -2.84%K -5.11%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-14 13:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -9.49%E -6.12%K -17.26%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-14 13:25
Marginal = Marginal · I = Implicit sannolikhet · NM = Marginalrensad sannolikhet · EV = Väntevärde · E = Fördel · K = Kelly-kriteriet · G = Spelkapitalets tillväxt

Uppdaterat anger när respektive spelbolag senast ändrade sitt odds. En äldre tidpunkt betyder därför att oddset inte har rört sig, inte att det är inaktuellt. Spelbolag som inte har observerats under de senaste cirka 15 minuterna utesluts normalt; endast om dataflödet för en hel marknad tystnar visas i stället de senast registrerade oddsen.

Spelbörser (7)

SpelbolagHemmaBortaMarginal ▲Uppdaterat
ProphetX1.74I 57.47%NM 57.35%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.65%0.2%2026-04-14 13:25
Matchbook1.73I 57.80%NM 57.49%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.51%0.5%2026-04-14 13:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 57.49%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.51%0.5%2026-04-14 13:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.73I 57.80%NM 57.49%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.51%0.5%2026-04-14 13:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.73I 57.80%NM 57.49%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.51%0.5%2026-04-14 13:25
Novig1.69I 59.17%NM 58.68%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.32%0.8%2026-04-14 13:25
Smarkets1.70I 58.82%NM 57.71%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.29%1.9%2026-04-14 13:25