Language:English
Rafael Jodar v Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Rafael Jodar (Local)
Prediction 78.72%1.27fair odd
EV -3.17%
Edge -2.58%
Kelly -13.79%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.23
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.70%78.71%78.79%81.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.121.201.201.2389.29%83.41%83.33%81.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli (Visit)
Prediction 21.28%4.70fair odd
EV +8.73%
Edge +1.71%
Kelly +2.12%
Growth +0.185%
assuming max odds 5.11
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.92%21.29%21.21%24.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.384.405.1126.32%22.82%22.73%19.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rafael Jodar (Local): 78.72%; Camilo Ugo Carabelli (Visit): 21.28%. For Camilo Ugo Carabelli (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.70. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.11, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.73%.
Sportsbook Odds (63 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 80.85%EV -4.75%E -3.92%K -22.60%G +0.000% | 5.11I 19.57%NM 19.15%EV +8.73%E +1.71%K +2.12%G +0.185% | 2.2% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.36%EV -6.32%E -5.31%K -33.27%G +0.000% | 4.87I 20.53%NM 19.64%EV +3.62%E +0.744%K +0.936%G +0.034% | 4.6% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.87%EV -4.75%E -3.92%K -22.60%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.13%EV +2.13%E +0.445%K +0.562%G +0.012% | 3.5% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.00%EV -5.53%E -4.61%K -27.67%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.00%EV +2.13%E +0.445%K +0.562%G +0.012% | 4.2% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 81.08%EV -11.83%E -10.56%K -98.60%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.92%EV +2.13%E +0.445%K +0.562%G +0.012% | 10.1% | 2026-04-15 14:06 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.03%EV -6.32%E -5.31%K -33.27%G +0.000% | 4.77I 20.96%NM 19.97%EV +1.50%E +0.314%K +0.397%G +0.006% | 5.0% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 79.56%EV -3.96%E -3.25%K -18.00%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.44%EV +1.07%E +0.225%K +0.286%G +0.003% | 3.0% | 2026-04-15 13:59 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -5.53%E -4.61%K -27.67%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV +0.007%E +0.001%K +0.002%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-15 14:09 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -5.53%E -4.61%K -27.67%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -2.12%E -0.461%K -0.589%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-15 13:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.72%EV -7.90%E -6.75%K -46.44%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -2.12%E -0.461%K -0.589%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.13%EV -5.53%E -4.61%K -27.67%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.87%EV -3.18%E -0.700%K -0.897%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-15 14:07 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -3.96%E -3.25%K -18.00%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -4.25%E -0.944%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-15 14:09 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -4.75%E -3.92%K -22.60%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -4.25%E -0.944%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-15 14:09 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -4.75%E -3.92%K -22.60%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -4.25%E -0.944%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.53%E -4.61%K -27.67%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -4.25%E -0.944%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.53%E -4.61%K -27.67%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -4.25%E -0.944%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-15 14:09 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.53%E -4.61%K -27.67%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -4.25%E -0.944%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-15 14:08 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.09%EV -6.32%E -5.31%K -33.27%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -4.25%E -0.944%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-15 14:01 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -7.11%E -6.02%K -39.49%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -4.25%E -0.944%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -7.90%E -6.75%K -46.44%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -4.25%E -0.944%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-15 14:09 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.51%EV -8.68%E -7.48%K -54.27%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -4.25%E -0.944%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-15 13:59 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.76%EV -5.53%E -4.61%K -27.67%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.24%EV -5.31%E -1.19%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -4.75%E -3.92%K -22.60%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -6.38%E -1.45%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -4.75%E -3.92%K -22.60%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -6.38%E -1.45%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -4.75%E -3.92%K -22.60%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -6.38%E -1.45%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-15 14:09 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -4.75%E -3.92%K -22.60%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -6.38%E -1.45%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-15 14:09 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -4.75%E -3.92%K -22.60%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -6.38%E -1.45%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -4.75%E -3.92%K -22.60%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -6.38%E -1.45%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -4.75%E -3.92%K -22.60%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -6.38%E -1.45%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -5.53%E -4.61%K -27.67%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -6.38%E -1.45%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.71%EV -6.32%E -5.31%K -33.27%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.29%EV -6.38%E -1.45%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -7.11%E -6.02%K -39.49%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -6.38%E -1.45%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-15 14:09 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.24%EV -4.75%E -3.92%K -22.60%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%EV -7.44%E -1.71%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-15 13:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.66%EV -7.11%E -6.02%K -39.49%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.34%EV -7.44%E -1.71%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-15 14:09 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.66%EV -7.11%E -6.02%K -39.49%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.34%EV -7.44%E -1.71%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-15 14:09 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.80%EV -7.90%E -6.75%K -46.44%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.20%EV -7.44%E -1.71%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -5.53%E -4.61%K -27.67%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -7.87%E -1.82%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -5.53%E -4.61%K -27.67%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -7.87%E -1.82%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.04%EV -4.75%E -3.92%K -22.60%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -8.50%E -1.98%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.04%EV -4.75%E -3.92%K -22.60%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -8.50%E -1.98%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.64%EV -3.17%E -2.58%K -13.79%G +0.000% | 4.27I 23.42%NM 22.36%EV -9.14%E -2.14%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.64%EV -3.17%E -2.58%K -13.79%G +0.000% | 4.27I 23.42%NM 22.36%EV -9.14%E -2.14%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.84%EV -4.75%E -3.92%K -22.60%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.16%EV -9.57%E -2.25%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.84%EV -4.75%E -3.92%K -22.60%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.16%EV -9.57%E -2.25%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-15 14:09 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.13%EV -6.32%E -5.31%K -33.27%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.88%EV -9.57%E -2.25%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.13%EV -6.32%E -5.31%K -33.27%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.88%EV -9.57%E -2.25%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -3.96%E -3.25%K -18.00%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -10.63%E -2.53%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -3.96%E -3.25%K -18.00%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -10.63%E -2.53%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-15 13:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -3.96%E -3.25%K -18.00%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -10.63%E -2.53%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -3.96%E -3.25%K -18.00%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -10.63%E -2.53%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-15 13:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -3.96%E -3.25%K -18.00%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -10.63%E -2.53%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-15 13:59 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -5.53%E -4.61%K -27.67%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -10.63%E -2.53%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -5.53%E -4.61%K -27.67%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -10.63%E -2.53%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -5.53%E -4.61%K -27.67%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -10.63%E -2.53%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 77.92%EV -6.32%E -5.31%K -33.27%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.08%EV -10.63%E -2.53%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-15 13:59 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 77.92%EV -6.32%E -5.31%K -33.27%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.08%EV -10.63%E -2.53%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.07%EV -7.11%E -6.02%K -39.49%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -10.63%E -2.53%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-15 14:09 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 77.65%EV -7.11%E -6.02%K -39.49%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.35%EV -12.76%E -3.11%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-15 14:09 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -3.96%E -3.25%K -18.00%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -14.89%E -3.72%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -5.53%E -4.61%K -27.67%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -14.89%E -3.72%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-15 14:08 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 77.22%EV -7.11%E -6.02%K -39.49%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -14.89%E -3.72%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-04-15 14:09 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 77.52%EV -8.68%E -7.48%K -54.27%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.48%EV -14.89%E -3.72%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-04-15 14:09 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.70%EV -3.96%E -3.25%K -18.00%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -19.14%E -5.04%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.24I 80.65%NM 80.44% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.56% | 0.3% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.24I 80.65%NM 80.44% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.56% | 0.3% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.51% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 20.49% | 0.6% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.24I 80.65%NM 79.80% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.20% | 1.1% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.26% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.74% | 1.3% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| Novig◎ | 1.24I 80.65%NM 79.50% | 4.81I 20.79%NM 20.50% | 1.4% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.22I 81.97%NM 79.73% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.27% | 2.8% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |