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Rafael Jodar v Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Коэффициенты закрытия — вероятности и ожидаемая ценность, рассчитанные выбранной моделью по последним коэффициентам, зарегистрированным до начала матча. Матч уже начался, поэтому это не текущие показатели. Оценить надёжность вероятностных прогнозов каждой модели по результатам всех завершённых матчей →
Победитель встречи
Rafael Jodar (Хозяева)
Прогноз 78.72%1.27справедливый коэффициент
EV -3.17%
Преимущество -2.58%
Kelly -13.79%
Рост +0.000%
при максимальном коэффициенте 1.23
Распределение прогнозов букмекерских контор
75.70%78.71%78.79%81.08%МИН.СРЕДНЕЕМЕДИАНАМАКС.
Распределение коэффициентов
1.121.201.201.2389.29%83.41%83.33%81.30%МИН.СРЕДНЕЕМЕДИАНАМАКС.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli (Гости)
Прогноз 21.28%4.70справедливый коэффициент
EV +8.73%
Преимущество +1.71%
Kelly +2.12%
Рост +0.185%
при максимальном коэффициенте 5.11
Распределение прогнозов букмекерских контор
18.92%21.29%21.21%24.30%МИН.СРЕДНЕЕМЕДИАНАМАКС.
Распределение коэффициентов
3.804.384.405.1126.32%22.82%22.73%19.57%МИН.СРЕДНЕЕМЕДИАНАМАКС.
По последним коэффициентам перед началом модель Межквартильное среднее (Отобранный список) оценивала рынок «Победитель встречи» так: Rafael Jodar (Хозяева): 78.72%; Camilo Ugo Carabelli (Гости): 21.28%. Для исхода «Camilo Ugo Carabelli (Гости)» эта оценка соответствовала справедливому десятичному коэффициенту 4.70. 8 букмекеров предлагали итоговые коэффициенты выше этого уровня; лучший составлял 5.11, что соответствовало положительному математическому ожиданию +8.73%.
Коэффициенты букмекерских контор (63 букмекерские конторы)
Мы не связаны ни с одной букмекерской конторой и ничего не зарабатываем на действиях, совершаемых у них.
| Букмекерская контора | Хозяева | Гости ▼ | Маржа | Обновлено |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 80.85%EV -4.75%E -3.92%K -22.60%G +0.000% | 5.11I 19.57%NM 19.15%EV +8.73%E +1.71%K +2.12%G +0.185% | 2.2% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.36%EV -6.32%E -5.31%K -33.27%G +0.000% | 4.87I 20.53%NM 19.64%EV +3.62%E +0.744%K +0.936%G +0.034% | 4.6% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.87%EV -4.75%E -3.92%K -22.60%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.13%EV +2.13%E +0.445%K +0.562%G +0.012% | 3.5% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.00%EV -5.53%E -4.61%K -27.67%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.00%EV +2.13%E +0.445%K +0.562%G +0.012% | 4.2% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 81.08%EV -11.83%E -10.56%K -98.60%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.92%EV +2.13%E +0.445%K +0.562%G +0.012% | 10.1% | 2026-04-15 14:06 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.03%EV -6.32%E -5.31%K -33.27%G +0.000% | 4.77I 20.96%NM 19.97%EV +1.50%E +0.314%K +0.397%G +0.006% | 5.0% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 79.56%EV -3.96%E -3.25%K -18.00%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.44%EV +1.07%E +0.225%K +0.286%G +0.003% | 3.0% | 2026-04-15 13:59 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -5.53%E -4.61%K -27.67%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV +0.007%E +0.001%K +0.002%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-15 14:09 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -5.53%E -4.61%K -27.67%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -2.12%E -0.461%K -0.589%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-15 13:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.72%EV -7.90%E -6.75%K -46.44%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -2.12%E -0.461%K -0.589%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.13%EV -5.53%E -4.61%K -27.67%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.87%EV -3.18%E -0.700%K -0.897%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-15 14:07 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -3.96%E -3.25%K -18.00%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -4.25%E -0.944%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-15 14:09 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -4.75%E -3.92%K -22.60%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -4.25%E -0.944%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-15 14:09 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -4.75%E -3.92%K -22.60%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -4.25%E -0.944%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.53%E -4.61%K -27.67%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -4.25%E -0.944%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.53%E -4.61%K -27.67%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -4.25%E -0.944%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-15 14:09 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.53%E -4.61%K -27.67%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -4.25%E -0.944%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-15 14:08 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.09%EV -6.32%E -5.31%K -33.27%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -4.25%E -0.944%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-15 14:01 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -7.11%E -6.02%K -39.49%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -4.25%E -0.944%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -7.90%E -6.75%K -46.44%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -4.25%E -0.944%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-15 14:09 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.51%EV -8.68%E -7.48%K -54.27%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -4.25%E -0.944%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-15 13:59 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.76%EV -5.53%E -4.61%K -27.67%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.24%EV -5.31%E -1.19%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -4.75%E -3.92%K -22.60%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -6.38%E -1.45%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -4.75%E -3.92%K -22.60%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -6.38%E -1.45%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -4.75%E -3.92%K -22.60%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -6.38%E -1.45%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-15 14:09 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -4.75%E -3.92%K -22.60%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -6.38%E -1.45%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-15 14:09 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -4.75%E -3.92%K -22.60%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -6.38%E -1.45%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -4.75%E -3.92%K -22.60%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -6.38%E -1.45%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -4.75%E -3.92%K -22.60%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -6.38%E -1.45%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -5.53%E -4.61%K -27.67%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -6.38%E -1.45%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.71%EV -6.32%E -5.31%K -33.27%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.29%EV -6.38%E -1.45%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -7.11%E -6.02%K -39.49%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -6.38%E -1.45%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-15 14:09 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.24%EV -4.75%E -3.92%K -22.60%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%EV -7.44%E -1.71%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-15 13:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.66%EV -7.11%E -6.02%K -39.49%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.34%EV -7.44%E -1.71%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-15 14:09 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.66%EV -7.11%E -6.02%K -39.49%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.34%EV -7.44%E -1.71%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-15 14:09 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.80%EV -7.90%E -6.75%K -46.44%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.20%EV -7.44%E -1.71%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -5.53%E -4.61%K -27.67%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -7.87%E -1.82%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -5.53%E -4.61%K -27.67%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -7.87%E -1.82%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.04%EV -4.75%E -3.92%K -22.60%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -8.50%E -1.98%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.04%EV -4.75%E -3.92%K -22.60%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -8.50%E -1.98%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.64%EV -3.17%E -2.58%K -13.79%G +0.000% | 4.27I 23.42%NM 22.36%EV -9.14%E -2.14%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.64%EV -3.17%E -2.58%K -13.79%G +0.000% | 4.27I 23.42%NM 22.36%EV -9.14%E -2.14%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.84%EV -4.75%E -3.92%K -22.60%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.16%EV -9.57%E -2.25%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.84%EV -4.75%E -3.92%K -22.60%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.16%EV -9.57%E -2.25%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-15 14:09 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.13%EV -6.32%E -5.31%K -33.27%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.88%EV -9.57%E -2.25%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.13%EV -6.32%E -5.31%K -33.27%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.88%EV -9.57%E -2.25%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -3.96%E -3.25%K -18.00%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -10.63%E -2.53%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -3.96%E -3.25%K -18.00%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -10.63%E -2.53%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-15 13:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -3.96%E -3.25%K -18.00%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -10.63%E -2.53%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -3.96%E -3.25%K -18.00%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -10.63%E -2.53%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-15 13:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -3.96%E -3.25%K -18.00%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -10.63%E -2.53%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-15 13:59 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -5.53%E -4.61%K -27.67%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -10.63%E -2.53%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -5.53%E -4.61%K -27.67%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -10.63%E -2.53%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -5.53%E -4.61%K -27.67%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -10.63%E -2.53%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 77.92%EV -6.32%E -5.31%K -33.27%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.08%EV -10.63%E -2.53%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-15 13:59 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 77.92%EV -6.32%E -5.31%K -33.27%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.08%EV -10.63%E -2.53%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.07%EV -7.11%E -6.02%K -39.49%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -10.63%E -2.53%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-15 14:09 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 77.65%EV -7.11%E -6.02%K -39.49%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.35%EV -12.76%E -3.11%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-15 14:09 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -3.96%E -3.25%K -18.00%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -14.89%E -3.72%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -5.53%E -4.61%K -27.67%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -14.89%E -3.72%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-15 14:08 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 77.22%EV -7.11%E -6.02%K -39.49%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -14.89%E -3.72%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-04-15 14:09 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 77.52%EV -8.68%E -7.48%K -54.27%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.48%EV -14.89%E -3.72%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-04-15 14:09 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.70%EV -3.96%E -3.25%K -18.00%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -19.14%E -5.04%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
Маржа = Маржа · I = Подразумеваемая вероятность · NM = Вероятность без маржи · EV = Ожидаемая ценность · E = Преимущество · K = Критерий Келли · G = Рост капитала
Обновлено — время последнего изменения коэффициента каждой букмекерской конторой. Более раннее время означает лишь, что коэффициент не менялся, а не что он устарел. Конторы, от которых около 15 минут не поступали данные, обычно исключаются; последние зарегистрированные коэффициенты показываются только тогда, когда перестаёт обновляться весь поток данных по рынку.
Биржи ставок (7)
| Букмекерская контора | Хозяева | Гости | Маржа ▲ | Обновлено |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.24I 80.65%NM 80.44% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.56% | 0.3% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.24I 80.65%NM 80.44% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.56% | 0.3% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.51% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 20.49% | 0.6% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.24I 80.65%NM 79.80% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.20% | 1.1% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.26% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.74% | 1.3% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| Novig◎ | 1.24I 80.65%NM 79.50% | 4.81I 20.79%NM 20.50% | 1.4% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.22I 81.97%NM 79.73% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.27% | 2.8% | 2026-04-15 14:10 |