Language:English
Pedro Martinez v Lorenzo Sonego
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Pedro Martinez (Local)
Prediction 63.12%1.58fair odd
EV -2.80%
Edge -1.82%
Kelly -5.19%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.54
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.31%63.09%63.29%65.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.491.501.5469.44%66.94%66.67%64.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Lorenzo Sonego (Visit)
Prediction 36.88%2.71fair odd
EV +2.17%
Edge +0.782%
Kelly +1.22%
Growth +0.027%
assuming max odds 2.77
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.52%36.91%36.71%38.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.582.602.7741.67%38.80%38.46%36.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Pedro Martinez (Local): 63.12%; Lorenzo Sonego (Visit): 36.88%. For Lorenzo Sonego (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.71. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.77, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.17%.
Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.48%EV -7.85%E -5.38%K -17.06%G +0.000% | 2.77I 36.10%NM 34.52%EV +2.17%E +0.782%K +1.22%G +0.027% | 4.6% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -8.48%E -5.85%K -18.85%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -0.415%E -0.154%K -0.244%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-14 08:59 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.10%EV -5.96%E -4.00%K -12.16%G +0.000% | 2.66I 37.59%NM 35.90%EV -1.89%E -0.711%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 63.07%EV -2.80%E -1.82%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.93%EV -3.00%E -1.14%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-04-14 08:59 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -5.33%E -3.55%K -10.65%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -3.00%E -1.14%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.46%EV -8.48%E -5.85%K -18.85%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.54%EV -3.00%E -1.14%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.13%EV -3.43%E -2.24%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.87%EV -3.37%E -1.28%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.13%EV -3.43%E -2.24%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.87%EV -3.37%E -1.28%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -5.33%E -3.55%K -10.65%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -3.37%E -1.28%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -9.11%E -6.33%K -20.71%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -3.37%E -1.28%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -9.11%E -6.33%K -20.71%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -3.37%E -1.28%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -9.11%E -6.33%K -20.71%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -3.37%E -1.28%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.80%EV -2.80%E -1.82%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.20%EV -4.10%E -1.58%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -3.43%E -2.24%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -4.10%E -1.58%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-14 08:59 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -4.69%E -3.11%K -9.20%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -4.10%E -1.58%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.33%E -3.55%K -10.65%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.10%E -1.58%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.33%E -3.55%K -10.65%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.10%E -1.58%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.33%E -3.55%K -10.65%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.10%E -1.58%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.33%E -3.55%K -10.65%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.10%E -1.58%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.33%E -3.55%K -10.65%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.10%E -1.58%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.33%E -3.55%K -10.65%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.10%E -1.58%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.33%E -3.55%K -10.65%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.10%E -1.58%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.33%E -3.55%K -10.65%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.10%E -1.58%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.33%E -3.55%K -10.65%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.10%E -1.58%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-14 08:59 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.33%E -3.55%K -10.65%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.10%E -1.58%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.33%E -3.55%K -10.65%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.10%E -1.58%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-14 08:59 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.33%E -3.55%K -10.65%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.10%E -1.58%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.33%E -3.55%K -10.65%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.10%E -1.58%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.33%E -3.55%K -10.65%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.10%E -1.58%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.33%E -3.55%K -10.65%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.10%E -1.58%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-14 08:59 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.33%E -3.55%K -10.65%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.10%E -1.58%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.33%E -3.55%K -10.65%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.10%E -1.58%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.33%E -3.55%K -10.65%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.10%E -1.58%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-14 08:59 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.33%E -3.55%K -10.65%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.10%E -1.58%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.33%E -3.55%K -10.65%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.10%E -1.58%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-14 08:59 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.57%EV -5.96%E -4.00%K -12.16%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.43%EV -4.10%E -1.58%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -6.59%E -4.45%K -13.72%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -4.10%E -1.58%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-14 08:59 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -9.11%E -6.33%K -20.71%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -4.10%E -1.58%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -9.11%E -6.33%K -20.71%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -4.10%E -1.58%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.08%EV -4.69%E -3.11%K -9.20%G +0.000% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 36.92%EV -4.84%E -1.88%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.33%E -3.55%K -10.65%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.95%E -2.33%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -5.96%E -4.00%K -12.16%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -5.95%E -2.33%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.43%EV -7.22%E -4.91%K -15.36%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.57%EV -5.95%E -2.33%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.48%EV -8.48%E -5.85%K -18.85%G +0.000% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 36.52%EV -7.05%E -2.80%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.43%E -2.24%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.79%E -3.12%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.43%E -2.24%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.79%E -3.12%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.33%E -3.55%K -10.65%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.79%E -3.12%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.33%E -3.55%K -10.65%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.79%E -3.12%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.33%E -3.55%K -10.65%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.79%E -3.12%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.33%E -3.55%K -10.65%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.79%E -3.12%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.33%E -3.55%K -10.65%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.79%E -3.12%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.66%EV -5.96%E -4.00%K -12.16%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -7.79%E -3.12%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.66%EV -5.96%E -4.00%K -12.16%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -7.79%E -3.12%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.97%EV -7.22%E -4.91%K -15.36%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.03%EV -7.79%E -3.12%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%EV -8.48%E -5.85%K -18.85%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -7.79%E -3.12%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-14 08:58 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.81%EV -4.06%E -2.67%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.19%EV -9.27%E -3.77%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.31%EV -2.80%E -1.82%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 38.69%EV -10.00%E -4.10%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -5.33%E -3.55%K -10.65%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -11.48%E -4.78%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-14 08:58 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.60I 62.50%NM 62.44% | 2.66I 37.59%NM 37.56% | 0.1% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.76% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 37.24% | 0.2% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.60I 62.50%NM 62.26% | 2.64I 37.88%NM 37.74% | 0.4% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.60I 62.50%NM 62.09% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 37.91% | 0.7% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.60I 62.50%NM 62.09% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 37.91% | 0.7% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 62.35% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.65% | 2.2% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| Novig◎ | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.55% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.45% | 3.5% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |