Language:English
Mariano Navone v Andrey Rublev
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Mariano Navone (Local)
Prediction 42.76%2.34fair odd
EV +1.78%
Edge +0.748%
Kelly +1.29%
Growth +0.023%
assuming max odds 2.38
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.50%42.71%42.77%44.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.242.242.3847.62%44.67%44.74%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Andrey Rublev (Visit)
Prediction 57.24%1.75fair odd
EV -2.13%
Edge -1.24%
Kelly -3.00%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.71
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.50%57.29%57.23%59.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.561.641.651.7164.10%60.91%60.79%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mariano Navone (Local): 42.76%; Andrey Rublev (Visit): 57.24%. For Mariano Navone (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.34. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.38, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.78%.
Sportsbook Odds (62 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.50%EV +1.78%E +0.748%K +1.29%G +0.023% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.50%EV -7.28%E -4.49%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-04-14 15:35 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.91%EV +0.068%E +0.029%K +0.051%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.09%EV -7.28%E -4.49%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-14 15:34 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -0.787%E -0.339%K -0.596%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -7.28%E -4.49%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-14 15:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -0.787%E -0.339%K -0.596%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -7.28%E -4.49%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-14 15:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -0.787%E -0.339%K -0.596%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -7.28%E -4.49%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-14 15:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -0.787%E -0.339%K -0.596%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -7.28%E -4.49%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-14 15:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -0.787%E -0.339%K -0.596%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -7.28%E -4.49%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-14 15:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -0.787%E -0.339%K -0.596%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -7.28%E -4.49%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-14 15:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -0.787%E -0.339%K -0.596%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -7.28%E -4.49%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-14 15:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -0.787%E -0.339%K -0.596%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -7.28%E -4.49%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-14 15:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -0.787%E -0.339%K -0.596%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -7.28%E -4.49%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-14 15:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -0.787%E -0.339%K -0.596%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -7.28%E -4.49%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-14 15:20 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -0.787%E -0.339%K -0.596%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -7.28%E -4.49%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-14 15:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -0.787%E -0.339%K -0.596%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -7.28%E -4.49%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-14 15:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -0.787%E -0.339%K -0.596%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -7.28%E -4.49%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-14 15:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -1.64%E -0.714%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -4.42%E -2.64%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-04-14 15:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -1.64%E -0.714%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -4.42%E -2.64%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-04-14 15:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.92%EV -1.64%E -0.714%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 58.08%EV -4.99%E -3.01%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-04-14 15:20 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -1.64%E -0.714%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -7.28%E -4.49%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-14 15:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.29I 43.67%NM 40.83%EV -2.07%E -0.904%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.17%EV -9.57%E -6.06%K -16.50%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-14 15:35 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.93%EV -2.50%E -1.10%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.07%EV -9.57%E -6.06%K -16.50%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-14 15:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.93%EV -2.50%E -1.10%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.07%EV -9.57%E -6.06%K -16.50%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-14 15:20 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.27I 44.05%NM 41.65%EV -2.93%E -1.29%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.35%EV -7.28%E -4.49%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-14 15:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.26I 44.25%NM 43.07%EV -3.35%E -1.48%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.93%EV -2.13%E -1.24%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-04-14 15:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -3.78%E -1.68%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.42%E -2.64%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-14 15:40 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -3.78%E -1.68%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.42%E -2.64%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-14 15:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -3.78%E -1.68%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.42%E -2.64%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-14 15:13 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -3.78%E -1.68%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -10.14%E -6.46%K -17.79%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-14 15:35 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -3.78%E -1.68%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.06%EV -10.71%E -6.87%K -19.13%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-14 15:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.24I 44.64%NM 42.56%EV -4.21%E -1.88%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.44%EV -4.99%E -3.01%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-14 15:20 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.24I 44.64%NM 42.42%EV -4.21%E -1.88%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.58%EV -5.56%E -3.37%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-14 15:40 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -4.64%E -2.08%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -4.99%E -3.01%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-14 15:34 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.23%EV -4.64%E -2.08%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.77%EV -6.71%E -4.11%K -10.64%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-14 15:35 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.21I 45.25%NM 43.04%EV -5.49%E -2.48%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.96%EV -4.42%E -2.64%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-14 15:19 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.21I 45.25%NM 42.89%EV -5.49%E -2.48%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.11%EV -4.99%E -3.01%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-14 15:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.92%E -2.69%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.42%E -2.64%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-14 15:19 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.92%E -2.69%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.42%E -2.64%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-14 15:20 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.92%E -2.69%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.42%E -2.64%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-14 15:20 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.92%E -2.69%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.42%E -2.64%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-14 15:20 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.92%E -2.69%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.42%E -2.64%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-14 15:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.92%E -2.69%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.42%E -2.64%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-14 15:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.92%E -2.69%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.42%E -2.64%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-14 15:20 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.92%E -2.69%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.42%E -2.64%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-14 15:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.92%E -2.69%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.56%E -3.37%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-14 15:25 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -5.92%E -2.69%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -6.13%E -3.74%K -9.58%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-14 15:35 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -5.92%E -2.69%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -7.28%E -4.49%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-14 15:20 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -5.92%E -2.69%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -7.28%E -4.49%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-14 15:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -5.92%E -2.69%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -7.85%E -4.88%K -12.87%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-14 15:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -5.92%E -2.69%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -8.42%E -5.26%K -14.04%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-14 15:20 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.19I 45.66%NM 43.41%EV -6.35%E -2.90%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.59%EV -3.84%E -2.29%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-14 15:20 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.19I 45.66%NM 43.12%EV -6.35%E -2.90%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.88%EV -4.99%E -3.01%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-14 15:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -8.06%E -3.75%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -2.70%E -1.59%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-14 15:19 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -8.06%E -3.75%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -3.84%E -2.29%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-14 15:20 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.57%EV -8.06%E -3.75%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.43%EV -4.99%E -3.01%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-14 15:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -8.06%E -3.75%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -5.56%E -3.37%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-14 15:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -8.06%E -3.75%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -5.56%E -3.37%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-14 15:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.27%EV -8.06%E -3.75%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.73%EV -6.13%E -3.74%K -9.58%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-14 15:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.27%EV -8.06%E -3.75%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.73%EV -6.13%E -3.74%K -9.58%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-14 15:25 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -8.06%E -3.75%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -7.28%E -4.49%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-14 15:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -9.34%E -4.41%K -8.34%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -2.70%E -1.59%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-14 15:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -9.34%E -4.41%K -8.34%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -2.70%E -1.59%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-14 15:20 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -10.19%E -4.85%K -9.27%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -5.56%E -3.37%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-14 15:19 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.36I 42.37%NM 42.30% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 57.70% | 0.2% | 2026-04-14 15:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.51% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 57.49% | 0.5% | 2026-04-14 15:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.51% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 57.49% | 0.5% | 2026-04-14 15:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.51% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 57.49% | 0.5% | 2026-04-14 15:40 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.22% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 57.78% | 1.2% | 2026-04-14 15:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.29% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 57.71% | 1.9% | 2026-04-14 15:40 |
| Novig◎ | 2.31I 43.29%NM 42.39% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 57.61% | 2.1% | 2026-04-14 15:35 |