Language:English
Spain v Croatia
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Spain (Local)
Prediction 77.25%1.29fair odd
EV -3.44%
Edge -2.75%
Kelly -13.77%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.47%77.14%77.08%79.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.171.221.221.2585.47%82.07%81.97%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Croatia (Visit)
Prediction 8.64%11.57fair odd
EV +8.04%
Edge +0.643%
Kelly +0.699%
Growth +0.056%
assuming max odds 12.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.53%8.71%8.60%10.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.7510.5110.5012.5011.43%9.52%9.52%8.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 14.11%7.09fair odd
EV +12.90%
Edge +1.61%
Kelly +1.84%
Growth +0.238%
assuming max odds 8.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.66%14.15%14.32%16.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.706.666.508.0017.54%15.02%15.38%12.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Spain (Local): 77.25%; Croatia (Visit): 8.64%; Draw: 14.11%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.09. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +12.90%.
Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.02%EV -8.85%E -7.50%K -49.17%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -13.57%E -1.36%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV +12.90%E +1.61%K +1.84%G +0.238% | 7.2% | 2026-09-29 18:35 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.79%EV -5.76%E -4.72%K -26.19%G +0.000% | 11.20I 8.93%NM 8.58%EV -3.20%E -0.286%K -0.314%G +0.000% | 7.61I 13.14%NM 12.63%EV +7.39%E +0.971%K +1.12%G +0.083% | 4.0% | 2026-09-29 18:35 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 78.96%EV -4.99%E -4.06%K -21.69%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.09%EV +3.72%E +0.310%K +0.338%G +0.013% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.95%EV +5.84%E +0.779%K +0.898%G +0.052% | 3.0% | 2026-09-29 18:31 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 78.05%EV -4.22%E -3.40%K -17.57%G +0.000% | 11.25I 8.89%NM 8.60%EV -2.77%E -0.246%K -0.270%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 13.35%EV +2.31%E +0.319%K +0.370%G +0.009% | 3.3% | 2026-09-29 18:35 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.74%EV -8.85%E -7.50%K -49.17%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.45%EV -4.93%E -0.448%K -0.493%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.82%EV +2.31%E +0.319%K +0.370%G +0.009% | 7.6% | 2026-09-29 18:39 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 77.06%EV -3.44%E -2.75%K -13.77%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.17%EV -9.25%E -0.881%K -0.974%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.76%EV -1.22%E -0.174%K -0.203%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-29 18:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 77.06%EV -3.44%E -2.75%K -13.77%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.17%EV -9.25%E -0.881%K -0.974%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.76%EV -1.22%E -0.174%K -0.203%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-29 18:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 77.06%EV -3.44%E -2.75%K -13.77%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.17%EV -9.25%E -0.881%K -0.974%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.76%EV -1.22%E -0.174%K -0.203%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-29 18:40 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.81%EV -5.76%E -4.72%K -26.19%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.63%EV -4.93%E -0.448%K -0.493%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.56%EV -1.22%E -0.174%K -0.203%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-29 18:38 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.65%EV -7.31%E -6.09%K -36.53%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.87%EV +3.72%E +0.310%K +0.338%G +0.013% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -1.22%E -0.174%K -0.203%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-29 18:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.14%EV -5.76%E -4.72%K -26.19%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.41%EV -13.57%E -1.36%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV -1.22%E -0.174%K -0.203%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-29 18:39 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.24%EV -8.08%E -6.79%K -42.52%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.46%EV -4.93%E -0.448%K -0.493%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -1.22%E -0.174%K -0.203%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-29 18:24 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.38%EV -8.85%E -7.50%K -49.17%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV -4.93%E -0.448%K -0.493%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.21%EV -1.22%E -0.174%K -0.203%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-29 18:40 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.06%EV -7.31%E -6.09%K -36.53%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.73%EV -17.89%E -1.88%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.21%EV -1.22%E -0.174%K -0.203%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-29 18:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.21%EV -9.62%E -8.23%K -56.61%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.72%EV -9.25%E -0.881%K -0.974%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.07%EV -1.22%E -0.174%K -0.203%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-29 18:39 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.11%EV -5.76%E -4.72%K -26.19%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.96%EV -9.25%E -0.881%K -0.974%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.94%EV -4.74%E -0.703%K -0.825%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-29 18:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.11%EV -5.76%E -4.72%K -26.19%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.96%EV -9.25%E -0.881%K -0.974%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.94%EV -4.74%E -0.703%K -0.825%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-29 18:39 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.11%EV -5.76%E -4.72%K -26.19%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.96%EV -9.25%E -0.881%K -0.974%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.94%EV -4.74%E -0.703%K -0.825%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-29 18:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.76%EV -5.76%E -4.72%K -26.19%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.36%EV -13.57%E -1.36%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.87%EV -4.74%E -0.703%K -0.825%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-29 18:40 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.68%EV -7.31%E -6.09%K -36.53%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.69%EV -17.89%E -1.88%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.63%EV -4.74%E -0.703%K -0.825%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-29 18:39 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 77.64%EV -3.44%E -2.75%K -13.77%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.76%EV +8.04%E +0.643%K +0.699%G +0.056% | 6.65I 15.04%NM 14.59%EV -6.16%E -0.926%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-09-29 18:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.56%EV -5.76%E -4.72%K -26.19%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.89%EV +3.72%E +0.310%K +0.338%G +0.013% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.56%EV -8.27%E -1.27%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-29 18:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.86%EV -4.99%E -4.06%K -21.69%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.59%EV -4.93%E -0.448%K -0.493%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.54%EV -8.27%E -1.27%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-29 18:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.54%EV -3.44%E -2.75%K -13.77%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -17.89%E -1.88%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -8.27%E -1.27%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-29 18:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.54%EV -3.44%E -2.75%K -13.77%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -17.89%E -1.88%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -8.27%E -1.27%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-29 18:40 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.29%EV -5.76%E -4.72%K -26.19%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.20%EV -0.606%E -0.053%K -0.058%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.51%EV -8.27%E -1.27%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-29 18:33 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.01%EV -5.76%E -4.72%K -26.19%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -4.93%E -0.448%K -0.493%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -8.27%E -1.27%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-29 18:40 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.84%EV -7.31%E -6.09%K -36.53%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV +3.72%E +0.310%K +0.338%G +0.013% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -8.27%E -1.27%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-29 18:39 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.35%EV -5.76%E -4.72%K -26.19%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -13.57%E -1.36%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.33%EV -8.27%E -1.27%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-29 18:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.35%EV -5.76%E -4.72%K -26.19%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -13.57%E -1.36%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.33%EV -8.27%E -1.27%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-29 18:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.35%EV -5.76%E -4.72%K -26.19%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -13.57%E -1.36%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.33%EV -8.27%E -1.27%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-29 18:39 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 76.84%EV -6.53%E -5.40%K -31.11%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.85%EV -9.25%E -0.881%K -0.974%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.30%EV -8.27%E -1.27%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-29 18:40 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 77.74%EV -9.62%E -8.23%K -56.61%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.27%EV -4.93%E -0.448%K -0.493%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.99%EV -8.27%E -1.27%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-29 18:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.16%EV -3.44%E -2.75%K -13.77%G +0.000% | 9.25I 10.81%NM 10.16%EV -20.05%E -2.17%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.68%EV -9.68%E -1.51%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-29 18:39 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.16%EV -3.44%E -2.75%K -13.77%G +0.000% | 9.25I 10.81%NM 10.16%EV -20.05%E -2.17%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.68%EV -9.68%E -1.51%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-29 18:39 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 76.33%EV -6.53%E -5.40%K -31.11%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV -13.57%E -1.36%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.43%EV -9.68%E -1.51%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-29 18:37 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 76.33%EV -6.53%E -5.40%K -31.11%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV -13.57%E -1.36%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.43%EV -9.68%E -1.51%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-29 18:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 76.33%EV -6.53%E -5.40%K -31.11%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV -13.57%E -1.36%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.43%EV -9.68%E -1.51%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-29 18:40 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.08%EV -5.76%E -4.72%K -26.19%G +0.000% | 10.10I 9.90%NM 9.19%EV -12.71%E -1.26%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 6.30I 15.87%NM 14.73%EV -11.09%E -1.76%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-29 18:34 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.47%EV -3.44%E -2.75%K -13.77%G +0.000% | 8.75I 11.43%NM 10.64%EV -24.37%E -2.79%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.89%EV -11.80%E -1.89%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-29 18:39 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.55%EV -5.76%E -4.72%K -26.19%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.70%EV -17.89%E -1.88%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.75%EV -11.80%E -1.89%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-29 18:35 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 75.70%EV -6.53%E -5.40%K -31.11%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.64%EV -17.89%E -1.88%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.66%EV -11.80%E -1.89%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-29 18:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 75.85%EV -7.31%E -6.09%K -36.53%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.58%EV -17.89%E -1.88%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.56%EV -11.80%E -1.89%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-29 18:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 75.85%EV -7.31%E -6.09%K -36.53%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.58%EV -17.89%E -1.88%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.56%EV -11.80%E -1.89%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-29 18:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -5.76%E -4.72%K -26.19%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -13.57%E -1.36%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -15.33%E -2.55%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-29 18:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.94%EV -4.22%E -3.40%K -17.57%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.53%EV +8.04%E +0.643%K +0.699%G +0.056% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.52%EV -19.56%E -3.43%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-29 18:38 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.94%EV -4.22%E -3.40%K -17.57%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.53%EV +8.04%E +0.643%K +0.699%G +0.056% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.52%EV -19.56%E -3.43%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-29 18:39 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.24I 80.65%NM 80.20% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.37% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.43% | 0.6% | 2026-09-29 18:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.24I 80.65%NM 80.20% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.37% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.43% | 0.6% | 2026-09-29 18:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.24I 80.65%NM 80.20% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.37% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.43% | 0.6% | 2026-09-29 18:40 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.24I 80.65%NM 80.20% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.37% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.43% | 0.6% | 2026-09-29 18:40 |