Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 6.40
assuming max odds 1.65
assuming max odds 4.20
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: SC Freiburg (Local): 16.44%; Aston Villa (Visit): 59.50%; Draw: 24.06%. For SC Freiburg (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.08. 11 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.21%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.38%EV +5.21%E +0.814%K +0.965%G +0.050% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.02%EV -2.42%E -1.48%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.61%EV -3.74%E -0.936%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 1.6% | 2026-05-20 18:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.38%EV +5.21%E +0.814%K +0.965%G +0.050% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.02%EV -2.42%E -1.48%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.61%EV -3.74%E -0.936%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 1.6% | 2026-05-20 18:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.38%EV +5.21%E +0.814%K +0.965%G +0.050% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.02%EV -2.42%E -1.48%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.61%EV -3.74%E -0.936%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 1.6% | 2026-05-20 18:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.38%EV +5.21%E +0.814%K +0.965%G +0.050% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.02%EV -2.42%E -1.48%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.61%EV -3.74%E -0.936%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 1.6% | 2026-05-20 18:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.47%EV +2.74%E +0.439%K +0.523%G +0.014% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.82%EV -5.40%E -3.40%K -9.15%G +0.000% | 4.08I 24.51%NM 23.70%EV -1.82%E -0.446%K -0.591%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-05-20 18:50 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.46%EV +2.74%E +0.439%K +0.523%G +0.014% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.39%EV -4.80%E -3.00%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.15%EV -3.74%E -0.936%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-05-20 18:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 6.15I 16.26%NM 15.79%EV +1.10%E +0.179%K +0.214%G +0.002% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.94%EV -3.61%E -2.23%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.27%EV -3.74%E -0.936%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-05-20 18:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 6.15I 16.26%NM 15.72%EV +1.10%E +0.179%K +0.214%G +0.002% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.41%EV -4.80%E -3.00%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.87%EV -2.54%E -0.627%K -0.833%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-05-20 18:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.83%EV +0.278%E +0.046%K +0.055%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.34%EV -4.80%E -3.00%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.84%EV -2.54%E -0.627%K -0.833%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-05-20 18:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.83%EV +0.278%E +0.046%K +0.055%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.34%EV -4.80%E -3.00%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.84%EV -2.54%E -0.627%K -0.833%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-05-20 18:50 |
| BetUS🎯 | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.62%EV +0.278%E +0.046%K +0.055%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.94%EV -5.40%E -3.40%K -9.15%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.44%EV -6.15%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-20 18:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.01%EV -1.37%E -0.228%K -0.273%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.67%EV -4.21%E -2.61%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.32%EV -4.95%E -1.25%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-20 18:39 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.00%EV -1.37%E -0.228%K -0.273%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -4.80%E -3.00%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.00%EV -3.74%E -0.936%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-20 18:38 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.00%EV -1.37%E -0.228%K -0.273%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -4.80%E -3.00%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.00%EV -3.74%E -0.936%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-20 18:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -1.37%E -0.228%K -0.273%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.44%EV -4.80%E -3.00%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.70%EV -7.35%E -1.91%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-20 18:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -1.37%E -0.228%K -0.273%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.44%EV -4.80%E -3.00%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.70%EV -7.35%E -1.91%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-20 18:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -1.37%E -0.228%K -0.273%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.44%EV -4.80%E -3.00%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.70%EV -7.35%E -1.91%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-20 18:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -1.37%E -0.228%K -0.273%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.44%EV -4.80%E -3.00%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.70%EV -7.35%E -1.91%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-20 18:50 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -1.37%E -0.228%K -0.273%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.44%EV -4.80%E -3.00%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.70%EV -7.35%E -1.91%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-20 18:50 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.79%EV -1.37%E -0.228%K -0.273%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.60%EV -5.40%E -3.40%K -9.15%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.61%EV -7.35%E -1.91%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-20 18:49 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.75%EV -1.37%E -0.228%K -0.273%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.06%EV -4.80%E -3.00%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.20%EV -9.76%E -2.60%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-20 18:49 |
| Everygame🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.72%EV -1.37%E -0.228%K -0.273%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.09%EV -6.59%E -4.20%K -11.56%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.19%EV -6.15%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-20 18:50 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 5.95I 16.81%NM 16.42%EV -2.19%E -0.368%K -0.442%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 60.31%EV -3.61%E -2.23%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.26%EV +1.07%E +0.254%K +0.334%G +0.004% | 2.3% | 2026-05-20 18:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.95%EV -3.01%E -0.510%K -0.614%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.93%EV -6.59%E -4.20%K -11.56%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -6.15%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-20 18:40 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 5.85I 17.09%NM 16.54%EV -3.83%E -0.655%K -0.790%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.65%EV -1.83%E -1.11%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.81%EV -6.15%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-05-20 18:49 |
| Betway🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.58%EV -5.48%E -0.952%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.59%EV -4.80%E -3.00%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.83%EV -3.74%E -0.936%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-20 18:50 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.52%EV -5.48%E -0.952%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.74%EV -5.40%E -3.40%K -9.15%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.75%EV -3.74%E -0.936%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-20 18:40 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -5.48%E -0.952%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.04%EV -6.59%E -4.20%K -11.56%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -3.74%E -0.936%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-20 18:50 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -5.48%E -0.952%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.68%EV -6.59%E -4.20%K -11.56%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.02%EV -6.15%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-20 18:48 |
| Bovada🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.24%EV -5.48%E -0.952%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.49%EV -6.59%E -4.20%K -11.56%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.26%EV -7.35%E -1.91%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-20 18:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.90%EV -5.48%E -0.952%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 59.38%EV -8.37%E -5.44%K -15.51%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.72%EV -10.96%E -2.96%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-20 18:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.90%EV -5.48%E -0.952%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 59.38%EV -8.37%E -5.44%K -15.51%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.72%EV -10.96%E -2.96%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-20 18:50 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.48%EV -6.30%E -1.10%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.44%EV -5.99%E -3.79%K -10.34%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.08%EV -6.15%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-20 18:49 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 5.64I 17.73%NM 17.20%EV -7.28%E -1.29%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 59.14%EV -2.42%E -1.48%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.66%EV -1.34%E -0.326%K -0.432%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-05-20 18:50 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.02%EV -7.94%E -1.42%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.84%EV -3.61%E -2.23%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.13%EV -4.95%E -1.25%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-20 18:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.43%EV -7.94%E -1.42%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.36%EV -7.78%E -5.02%K -14.14%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.21%EV -8.56%E -2.25%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-20 18:44 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.38%EV -7.94%E -1.42%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.82%EV -7.18%E -4.61%K -12.83%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -10.96%E -2.96%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-20 18:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.38%EV -7.94%E -1.42%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.82%EV -7.18%E -4.61%K -12.83%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -10.96%E -2.96%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-20 18:50 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.16%EV -9.59%E -1.74%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.63%EV -4.21%E -2.61%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.20%EV -6.15%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-20 18:49 |
| Coral🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.10%EV -9.59%E -1.74%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.78%EV -4.80%E -3.00%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -6.15%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-20 18:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.10%EV -9.59%E -1.74%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.78%EV -4.80%E -3.00%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -6.15%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-20 18:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.05%EV -9.59%E -1.74%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.60%EV -4.80%E -3.00%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.35%EV -7.35%E -1.91%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-20 18:40 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.01%EV -9.59%E -1.74%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.60%EV -6.59%E -4.20%K -11.56%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -3.74%E -0.936%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-20 18:50 |
| TAB🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.99%EV -9.59%E -1.74%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.41%EV -4.80%E -3.00%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -8.56%E -2.25%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-20 18:40 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.94%EV -9.59%E -1.74%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.22%EV -4.80%E -3.00%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.84%EV -9.76%E -2.60%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-20 18:40 |
| Caesars🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.93%EV -9.59%E -1.74%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 58.56%EV -5.40%E -3.40%K -9.15%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.50%EV -8.56%E -2.25%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-20 18:47 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.91%EV -9.59%E -1.74%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.24%EV -6.59%E -4.20%K -11.56%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -6.15%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-20 18:40 |
| 888sport🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -9.59%E -1.74%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.87%EV -6.59%E -4.20%K -11.56%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -8.56%E -2.25%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-20 18:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -9.59%E -1.74%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.87%EV -6.59%E -4.20%K -11.56%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -8.56%E -2.25%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-20 18:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -9.59%E -1.74%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.87%EV -6.59%E -4.20%K -11.56%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -8.56%E -2.25%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-20 18:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -9.59%E -1.74%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.87%EV -6.59%E -4.20%K -11.56%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -8.56%E -2.25%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-20 18:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -9.59%E -1.74%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.87%EV -6.59%E -4.20%K -11.56%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -8.56%E -2.25%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-20 18:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -9.59%E -1.74%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.87%EV -6.59%E -4.20%K -11.56%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -8.56%E -2.25%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-20 18:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.68%EV -9.59%E -1.74%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.18%EV -7.78%E -5.02%K -14.14%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.14%EV -8.56%E -2.25%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-20 18:40 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.84%EV -12.87%E -2.43%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.10%EV -4.80%E -3.00%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.06%EV -1.34%E -0.326%K -0.432%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-20 18:40 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.61%EV -12.87%E -2.43%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.06%EV -5.99%E -3.79%K -10.34%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -3.74%E -0.936%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-20 18:40 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.56% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.73% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.71% | 0.4% | 2026-05-20 18:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.56% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.73% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.71% | 0.4% | 2026-05-20 18:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.50% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.87% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.62% | 0.8% | 2026-05-20 18:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.41% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.52% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.06% | 1.4% | 2026-05-20 18:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.41% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.52% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.06% | 1.4% | 2026-05-20 18:50 |
| Kalshi◎ | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.69% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 59.79% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.52% | 2.0% | 2026-05-20 18:50 |