La escuela de los momios

SC Freiburg v Aston Villa

Inicio: 2026-05-20 19:00 UTC

Final: SC Freiburg 0–3 Aston Villa

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

SC Freiburg (Local)

Predicción 16.44%6.08momio equitativo
EV +5.21%
Ventaja +0.814%
Kelly +0.965%
Crecimiento +0.050%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
15.38%16.46%16.42%17.84%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
5.305.805.756.4018.87%17.23%17.39%15.63%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Aston Villa (Visitante)

Predicción 59.50%1.68momio equitativo
EV -1.83%
Ventaja -1.11%
Kelly -2.82%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.65

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
58.22%59.50%59.52%60.82%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.541.591.601.6564.94%62.82%62.50%60.61%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 24.06%4.16momio equitativo
EV +1.07%
Ventaja +0.254%
Kelly +0.334%
Crecimiento +0.004%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.06%24.04%24.06%25.20%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.703.903.904.2027.03%25.61%25.64%23.81%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (NL)6.40I 15.63%NM 15.38%EV +5.21%E +0.814%K +0.965%G +0.050%1.64I 60.98%NM 60.02%EV -2.42%E -1.48%K -3.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.61%EV -3.74%E -0.936%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.6%2026-05-20 18:50
Unibet (SE)6.40I 15.63%NM 15.38%EV +5.21%E +0.814%K +0.965%G +0.050%1.64I 60.98%NM 60.02%EV -2.42%E -1.48%K -3.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.61%EV -3.74%E -0.936%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.6%2026-05-20 18:50
ATG (SE)6.40I 15.63%NM 15.38%EV +5.21%E +0.814%K +0.965%G +0.050%1.64I 60.98%NM 60.02%EV -2.42%E -1.48%K -3.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.61%EV -3.74%E -0.936%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.6%2026-05-20 18:50
Svenska Spel6.40I 15.63%NM 15.38%EV +5.21%E +0.814%K +0.965%G +0.050%1.64I 60.98%NM 60.02%EV -2.42%E -1.48%K -3.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.61%EV -3.74%E -0.936%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.6%2026-05-20 18:50
LowVig.ag6.25I 16.00%NM 15.47%EV +2.74%E +0.439%K +0.523%G +0.014%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.82%EV -5.40%E -3.40%K -9.15%G +0.000%4.08I 24.51%NM 23.70%EV -1.82%E -0.446%K -0.591%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-20 18:50
PMU (FR)6.25I 16.00%NM 15.46%EV +2.74%E +0.439%K +0.523%G +0.014%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.39%EV -4.80%E -3.00%K -8.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.15%EV -3.74%E -0.936%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-20 18:50
Pinnacle6.15I 16.26%NM 15.79%EV +1.10%E +0.179%K +0.214%G +0.002%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.94%EV -3.61%E -2.23%K -5.83%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.27%EV -3.74%E -0.936%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-20 18:40
BetOnline.ag6.15I 16.26%NM 15.72%EV +1.10%E +0.179%K +0.214%G +0.002%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.41%EV -4.80%E -3.00%K -8.01%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.87%EV -2.54%E -0.627%K -0.833%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-20 18:50
NordicBet6.10I 16.39%NM 15.83%EV +0.278%E +0.046%K +0.055%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.34%EV -4.80%E -3.00%K -8.01%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.84%EV -2.54%E -0.627%K -0.833%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-20 18:50
Betsson6.10I 16.39%NM 15.83%EV +0.278%E +0.046%K +0.055%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.34%EV -4.80%E -3.00%K -8.01%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.84%EV -2.54%E -0.627%K -0.833%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-20 18:50
BetUS6.10I 16.39%NM 15.62%EV +0.278%E +0.046%K +0.055%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.94%EV -5.40%E -3.40%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.44%EV -6.15%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-20 18:50
DraftKings6.00I 16.67%NM 16.01%EV -1.37%E -0.228%K -0.273%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.67%EV -4.21%E -2.61%K -6.90%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.32%EV -4.95%E -1.25%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-20 18:39
Betclic (FR)6.00I 16.67%NM 16.00%EV -1.37%E -0.228%K -0.273%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -4.80%E -3.00%K -8.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.00%EV -3.74%E -0.936%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-20 18:38
Unibet (FR)6.00I 16.67%NM 16.00%EV -1.37%E -0.228%K -0.273%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -4.80%E -3.00%K -8.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.00%EV -3.74%E -0.936%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-20 18:50
Unibet6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -1.37%E -0.228%K -0.273%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.44%EV -4.80%E -3.00%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.70%EV -7.35%E -1.91%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-20 18:50
Grosvenor6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -1.37%E -0.228%K -0.273%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.44%EV -4.80%E -3.00%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.70%EV -7.35%E -1.91%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-20 18:50
Casumo6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -1.37%E -0.228%K -0.273%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.44%EV -4.80%E -3.00%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.70%EV -7.35%E -1.91%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-20 18:50
betPARX6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -1.37%E -0.228%K -0.273%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.44%EV -4.80%E -3.00%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.70%EV -7.35%E -1.91%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-20 18:50
Bally Bet6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -1.37%E -0.228%K -0.273%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.44%EV -4.80%E -3.00%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.70%EV -7.35%E -1.91%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-20 18:50
Suprabets6.00I 16.67%NM 15.79%EV -1.37%E -0.228%K -0.273%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.60%EV -5.40%E -3.40%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.61%EV -7.35%E -1.91%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-20 18:49
betfred_uk6.00I 16.67%NM 15.75%EV -1.37%E -0.228%K -0.273%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.06%EV -4.80%E -3.00%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.20%EV -9.76%E -2.60%K -3.55%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-20 18:49
Everygame6.00I 16.67%NM 15.72%EV -1.37%E -0.228%K -0.273%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.09%EV -6.59%E -4.20%K -11.56%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.19%EV -6.15%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-20 18:50
Marathon Bet5.95I 16.81%NM 16.42%EV -2.19%E -0.368%K -0.442%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 60.31%EV -3.61%E -2.23%K -5.83%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.26%EV +1.07%E +0.254%K +0.334%G +0.004%2.3%2026-05-20 18:50
FanDuel5.90I 16.95%NM 15.95%EV -3.01%E -0.510%K -0.614%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.93%EV -6.59%E -4.20%K -11.56%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -6.15%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-20 18:40
Coolbet5.85I 17.09%NM 16.54%EV -3.83%E -0.655%K -0.790%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.65%EV -1.83%E -1.11%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.81%EV -6.15%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-20 18:49
Betway5.75I 17.39%NM 16.58%EV -5.48%E -0.952%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.59%EV -4.80%E -3.00%K -8.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.83%EV -3.74%E -0.936%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-20 18:50
theScore Bet5.75I 17.39%NM 16.52%EV -5.48%E -0.952%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.74%EV -5.40%E -3.40%K -9.15%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.75%EV -3.74%E -0.936%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-20 18:40
Fanatics5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -5.48%E -0.952%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.04%EV -6.59%E -4.20%K -11.56%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -3.74%E -0.936%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-20 18:50
Bet Victor5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -5.48%E -0.952%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.68%EV -6.59%E -4.20%K -11.56%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.02%EV -6.15%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-20 18:48
Bovada5.75I 17.39%NM 16.24%EV -5.48%E -0.952%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.49%EV -6.59%E -4.20%K -11.56%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.26%EV -7.35%E -1.91%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-20 18:50
Virgin Bet5.75I 17.39%NM 15.90%EV -5.48%E -0.952%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 59.38%EV -8.37%E -5.44%K -15.51%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.72%EV -10.96%E -2.96%K -4.06%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-20 18:50
LiveScore Bet5.75I 17.39%NM 15.90%EV -5.48%E -0.952%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 59.38%EV -8.37%E -5.44%K -15.51%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.72%EV -10.96%E -2.96%K -4.06%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-20 18:50
NetBet (FR)5.70I 17.54%NM 16.48%EV -6.30%E -1.10%K -1.34%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.44%EV -5.99%E -3.79%K -10.34%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.08%EV -6.15%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-20 18:49
1xBet5.64I 17.73%NM 17.20%EV -7.28%E -1.29%K -1.57%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 59.14%EV -2.42%E -1.48%K -3.79%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.66%EV -1.34%E -0.326%K -0.432%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-20 18:50
Codere (IT)5.60I 17.86%NM 17.02%EV -7.94%E -1.42%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.84%EV -3.61%E -2.23%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.13%EV -4.95%E -1.25%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-20 18:40
BetRivers5.60I 17.86%NM 16.43%EV -7.94%E -1.42%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.36%EV -7.78%E -5.02%K -14.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.21%EV -8.56%E -2.25%K -3.06%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-20 18:44
TABtouch5.60I 17.86%NM 16.38%EV -7.94%E -1.42%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 58.82%EV -7.18%E -4.61%K -12.83%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -10.96%E -2.96%K -4.06%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-20 18:50
LeoVegas (SE)5.60I 17.86%NM 16.38%EV -7.94%E -1.42%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 58.82%EV -7.18%E -4.61%K -12.83%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -10.96%E -2.96%K -4.06%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-20 18:50
BetMGM5.50I 18.18%NM 17.16%EV -9.59%E -1.74%K -2.13%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.63%EV -4.21%E -2.61%K -6.90%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.20%EV -6.15%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-20 18:49
Coral5.50I 18.18%NM 17.10%EV -9.59%E -1.74%K -2.13%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.78%EV -4.80%E -3.00%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -6.15%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-20 18:50
Ladbrokes (UK)5.50I 18.18%NM 17.10%EV -9.59%E -1.74%K -2.13%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.78%EV -4.80%E -3.00%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -6.15%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-20 18:50
PlayUp5.50I 18.18%NM 17.05%EV -9.59%E -1.74%K -2.13%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.60%EV -4.80%E -3.00%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.35%EV -7.35%E -1.91%K -2.58%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-20 18:40
Sky Bet5.50I 18.18%NM 17.01%EV -9.59%E -1.74%K -2.13%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.60%EV -6.59%E -4.20%K -11.56%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -3.74%E -0.936%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-20 18:50
TAB5.50I 18.18%NM 16.99%EV -9.59%E -1.74%K -2.13%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.41%EV -4.80%E -3.00%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -8.56%E -2.25%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-20 18:40
Bet Right5.50I 18.18%NM 16.94%EV -9.59%E -1.74%K -2.13%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.22%EV -4.80%E -3.00%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.84%EV -9.76%E -2.60%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-20 18:40
Caesars5.50I 18.18%NM 16.93%EV -9.59%E -1.74%K -2.13%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 58.56%EV -5.40%E -3.40%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.50%EV -8.56%E -2.25%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-20 18:47
SportsBet5.50I 18.18%NM 16.91%EV -9.59%E -1.74%K -2.13%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.24%EV -6.59%E -4.20%K -11.56%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -6.15%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-20 18:40
888sport5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -9.59%E -1.74%K -2.13%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.87%EV -6.59%E -4.20%K -11.56%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -8.56%E -2.25%K -3.06%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-20 18:50
William Hill5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -9.59%E -1.74%K -2.13%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.87%EV -6.59%E -4.20%K -11.56%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -8.56%E -2.25%K -3.06%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-20 18:50
BoyleSports5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -9.59%E -1.74%K -2.13%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.87%EV -6.59%E -4.20%K -11.56%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -8.56%E -2.25%K -3.06%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-20 18:50
Mr Green (SE)5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -9.59%E -1.74%K -2.13%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.87%EV -6.59%E -4.20%K -11.56%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -8.56%E -2.25%K -3.06%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-20 18:50
888sport (SE)5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -9.59%E -1.74%K -2.13%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.87%EV -6.59%E -4.20%K -11.56%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -8.56%E -2.25%K -3.06%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-20 18:50
Paddy Power5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -9.59%E -1.74%K -2.13%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.87%EV -6.59%E -4.20%K -11.56%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -8.56%E -2.25%K -3.06%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-20 18:40
Betr (AU)5.50I 18.18%NM 16.68%EV -9.59%E -1.74%K -2.13%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.18%EV -7.78%E -5.02%K -14.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.14%EV -8.56%E -2.25%K -3.06%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-20 18:40
Winamax (DE)5.30I 18.87%NM 17.84%EV -12.87%E -2.43%K -2.99%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.10%EV -4.80%E -3.00%K -8.01%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.06%EV -1.34%E -0.326%K -0.432%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-20 18:40
Winamax (FR)5.30I 18.87%NM 17.61%EV -12.87%E -2.43%K -2.99%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.06%EV -5.99%E -3.79%K -10.34%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -3.74%E -0.936%K -1.25%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-20 18:40
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)6.40I 15.63%NM 15.56%1.64I 60.98%NM 60.73%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.71%0.4%2026-05-20 18:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)6.40I 15.63%NM 15.56%1.64I 60.98%NM 60.73%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.71%0.4%2026-05-20 18:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)6.40I 15.63%NM 15.50%1.63I 61.35%NM 60.87%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.62%0.8%2026-05-20 18:50
Smarkets6.40I 15.63%NM 15.41%1.63I 61.35%NM 60.52%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.06%1.4%2026-05-20 18:50
Matchbook6.40I 15.63%NM 15.41%1.63I 61.35%NM 60.52%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.06%1.4%2026-05-20 18:50
Kalshi6.25I 16.00%NM 15.69%1.64I 60.98%NM 59.79%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.52%2.0%2026-05-20 18:50