Language:English
Fiorentina v Crystal Palace
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Fiorentina (Local)
Prediction 27.97%3.58fair odd
EV -0.702%
Edge -0.198%
Kelly -0.275%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.55
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.24%28.10%28.00%30.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.333.303.5533.33%30.04%30.30%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Crystal Palace (Visit)
Prediction 44.60%2.24fair odd
EV -1.88%
Edge -0.853%
Kelly -1.56%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.40%44.65%44.53%45.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.102.102.2050.00%47.59%47.62%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 27.43%3.65fair odd
EV +2.85%
Edge +0.760%
Kelly +1.04%
Growth +0.030%
assuming max odds 3.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.54%27.25%27.47%28.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.453.403.7531.75%29.01%29.41%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fiorentina (Local): 27.97%; Crystal Palace (Visit): 44.60%; Draw: 27.43%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.65. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.85%.
Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betsson🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.92%EV -10.49%E -3.28%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.54%EV -4.11%E -1.91%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.54%EV +2.85%E +0.760%K +1.04%G +0.030% | 4.4% | 2026-04-16 18:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.92%EV -10.49%E -3.28%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.54%EV -4.11%E -1.91%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.54%EV +2.85%E +0.760%K +1.04%G +0.030% | 4.4% | 2026-04-16 18:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.62%EV -2.10%E -0.600%K -0.840%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.60%EV -5.44%E -2.57%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 3.61I 27.70%NM 26.78%EV -0.988%E -0.274%K -0.379%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-04-16 18:45 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -7.70%E -2.33%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.05%EV -6.34%E -3.02%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -1.26%E -0.351%K -0.485%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-16 18:15 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.98%EV -9.09%E -2.80%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.85%EV -6.34%E -3.02%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -1.26%E -0.351%K -0.485%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-16 18:25 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -7.70%E -2.33%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -8.57%E -4.18%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -1.26%E -0.351%K -0.485%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-16 18:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.67%EV -9.09%E -2.80%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.45%EV -8.57%E -4.18%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -1.26%E -0.351%K -0.485%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-16 18:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.78%EV -16.09%E -5.36%K -8.04%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.56%EV -5.44%E -2.57%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -1.26%E -0.351%K -0.485%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-16 18:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.24%EV -0.702%E -0.198%K -0.275%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.61%EV -5.44%E -2.57%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 3.56I 28.09%NM 27.16%EV -2.36%E -0.663%K -0.922%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-04-16 18:35 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.24%EV -0.702%E -0.198%K -0.275%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.61%EV -5.44%E -2.57%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 3.56I 28.09%NM 27.16%EV -2.36%E -0.663%K -0.922%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-04-16 18:35 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.08%EV -3.50%E -1.01%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 44.64%EV -3.21%E -1.48%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.29%EV -2.63%E -0.742%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-04-16 18:55 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.90%EV -4.90%E -1.44%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 2.09I 47.85%NM 45.38%EV -6.78%E -3.25%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.72%EV -2.63%E -0.742%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-16 18:37 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.07%EV -3.50%E -1.01%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.42%EV -2.77%E -1.27%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 3.52I 28.41%NM 27.51%EV -3.46%E -0.982%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-04-16 18:25 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.41I 29.33%NM 27.81%EV -4.62%E -1.35%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.16%EV -6.34%E -3.02%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 3.51I 28.49%NM 27.02%EV -3.73%E -1.06%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-16 18:55 |
| ReBet🎯 | 3.46I 28.90%NM 27.79%EV -3.22%E -0.931%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -4.11%E -1.91%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.48%EV -4.00%E -1.14%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-04-16 18:50 |
| Everygame🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -4.90%E -1.44%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.09%EV -6.34%E -3.02%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -4.00%E -1.14%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-16 18:35 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -10.49%E -3.28%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -6.34%E -3.02%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -4.00%E -1.14%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-16 18:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.93%EV -7.70%E -2.33%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.40%EV -1.88%E -0.853%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -5.38%E -1.56%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-16 18:30 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.04%EV -4.90%E -1.44%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.34%EV -4.11%E -1.91%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.63%EV -5.38%E -1.56%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-16 18:51 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.92%EV -4.90%E -1.44%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.11%E -1.91%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.92%EV -6.75%E -1.98%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-16 18:40 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -7.70%E -2.33%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -4.11%E -1.91%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -6.75%E -1.98%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-16 18:15 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -4.90%E -1.44%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -6.34%E -3.02%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -6.75%E -1.98%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-16 18:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -7.70%E -2.33%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -6.34%E -3.02%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -6.75%E -1.98%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-16 18:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -7.70%E -2.33%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -6.34%E -3.02%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -6.75%E -1.98%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-16 18:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -7.70%E -2.33%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -6.34%E -3.02%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -6.75%E -1.98%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-16 18:40 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -4.90%E -1.44%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -8.57%E -4.18%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -6.75%E -1.98%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-16 18:50 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -7.70%E -2.33%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 44.72%EV -7.67%E -3.71%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.23%EV -6.75%E -1.98%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-16 18:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -7.70%E -2.33%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.08%EV -9.01%E -4.42%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.05%EV -6.75%E -1.98%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-16 18:46 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -13.29%E -4.29%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%EV -10.80%E -5.40%K -10.80%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -6.75%E -1.98%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-04-16 18:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.51%EV -2.10%E -0.600%K -0.840%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.76%EV -1.88%E -0.853%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.74%EV -8.12%E -2.42%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-04-16 18:50 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -9.09%E -2.80%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.20%EV -10.80%E -5.40%K -10.80%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.98%EV -8.12%E -2.42%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-04-16 18:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.80%EV -4.90%E -1.44%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.56%EV -3.21%E -1.48%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV -9.49%E -2.88%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-16 18:45 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -7.70%E -2.33%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -6.34%E -3.02%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -9.49%E -2.88%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-16 18:18 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -7.70%E -2.33%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -8.57%E -4.18%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -9.49%E -2.88%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-04-16 18:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -7.70%E -2.33%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -8.57%E -4.18%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -9.49%E -2.88%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-04-16 18:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -7.70%E -2.33%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -8.57%E -4.18%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -9.49%E -2.88%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-04-16 18:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -7.70%E -2.33%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -8.57%E -4.18%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -9.49%E -2.88%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-04-16 18:50 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -9.09%E -2.80%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -8.57%E -4.18%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -9.49%E -2.88%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-16 18:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.52%EV -7.70%E -2.33%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.66%EV -7.23%E -3.48%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.83%EV -13.60%E -4.32%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-04-16 18:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.52%EV -7.70%E -2.33%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.66%EV -7.23%E -3.48%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.83%EV -13.60%E -4.32%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-04-16 18:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.55I 28.17%NM 28.05% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 46.09% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.86% | 0.4% | 2026-04-16 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.55I 28.17%NM 28.05% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 46.09% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.86% | 0.4% | 2026-04-16 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.83% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 46.17% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.00% | 1.2% | 2026-04-16 18:55 |