La escuela de los momios

Fiorentina v Crystal Palace

Inicio: 2026-04-16 19:00 UTC

Final: Fiorentina 2–1 Crystal Palace

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

40 corredores (15 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Fiorentina (Local)

Predicción 27.97%3.58momio equitativo
EV -0.702%
Ventaja -0.198%
Kelly -0.275%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.55

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.24%28.10%28.00%30.78%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.333.303.5533.33%30.04%30.30%28.17%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Crystal Palace (Visitante)

Predicción 44.60%2.24momio equitativo
EV -1.88%
Ventaja -0.853%
Kelly -1.56%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
43.40%44.65%44.53%45.65%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.002.102.102.2050.00%47.59%47.62%45.45%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 27.43%3.65momio equitativo
EV +2.85%
Ventaja +0.760%
Kelly +1.04%
Crecimiento +0.030%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.54%27.25%27.47%28.83%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.153.453.403.7531.75%29.01%29.41%26.67%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (40 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
Betsson3.20I 31.25%NM 29.92%EV -10.49%E -3.28%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.54%EV -4.11%E -1.91%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.54%EV +2.85%E +0.760%K +1.04%G +0.030%4.4%2026-04-16 18:55
NordicBet3.20I 31.25%NM 29.92%EV -10.49%E -3.28%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.54%EV -4.11%E -1.91%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.54%EV +2.85%E +0.760%K +1.04%G +0.030%4.4%2026-04-16 18:55
Pinnacle3.50I 28.57%NM 27.62%EV -2.10%E -0.600%K -0.840%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.60%EV -5.44%E -2.57%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 26.78%EV -0.988%E -0.274%K -0.379%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-16 18:45
Unibet (FR)3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -7.70%E -2.33%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.05%EV -6.34%E -3.02%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -1.26%E -0.351%K -0.485%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-16 18:15
betfred_uk3.25I 30.77%NM 28.98%EV -9.09%E -2.80%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.85%EV -6.34%E -3.02%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -1.26%E -0.351%K -0.485%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-16 18:25
FanDuel3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -7.70%E -2.33%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -8.57%E -4.18%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -1.26%E -0.351%K -0.485%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-16 18:55
SportsBet3.25I 30.77%NM 28.67%EV -9.09%E -2.80%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.45%EV -8.57%E -4.18%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -1.26%E -0.351%K -0.485%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-16 18:55
PlayUp3.00I 33.33%NM 30.78%EV -16.09%E -5.36%K -8.04%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.56%EV -5.44%E -2.57%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -1.26%E -0.351%K -0.485%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-16 18:55
LowVig.ag3.55I 28.17%NM 27.24%EV -0.702%E -0.198%K -0.275%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.61%EV -5.44%E -2.57%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 27.16%EV -2.36%E -0.663%K -0.922%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-16 18:35
BetOnline.ag3.55I 28.17%NM 27.24%EV -0.702%E -0.198%K -0.275%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.61%EV -5.44%E -2.57%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 27.16%EV -2.36%E -0.663%K -0.922%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-16 18:35
Marathon Bet3.45I 28.99%NM 28.08%EV -3.50%E -1.01%K -1.43%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.64%EV -3.21%E -1.48%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.29%EV -2.63%E -0.742%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-16 18:55
Suprabets3.40I 29.41%NM 27.90%EV -4.90%E -1.44%K -2.04%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 45.38%EV -6.78%E -3.25%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.72%EV -2.63%E -0.742%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-16 18:37
Coolbet3.45I 28.99%NM 28.07%EV -3.50%E -1.01%K -1.43%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.42%EV -2.77%E -1.27%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.51%EV -3.46%E -0.982%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-16 18:25
1xBet3.41I 29.33%NM 27.81%EV -4.62%E -1.35%K -1.92%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.16%EV -6.34%E -3.02%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 27.02%EV -3.73%E -1.06%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-16 18:55
ReBet3.46I 28.90%NM 27.79%EV -3.22%E -0.931%K -1.31%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -4.11%E -1.91%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.48%EV -4.00%E -1.14%K -1.60%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-16 18:50
Everygame3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -4.90%E -1.44%K -2.04%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.09%EV -6.34%E -3.02%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -4.00%E -1.14%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-16 18:35
Bet Right3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -10.49%E -3.28%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -6.34%E -3.02%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -4.00%E -1.14%K -1.60%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-16 18:25
DraftKings3.30I 30.30%NM 28.93%EV -7.70%E -2.33%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.40%EV -1.88%E -0.853%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -5.38%E -1.56%K -2.19%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-16 18:30
Betclic (FR)3.40I 29.41%NM 28.04%EV -4.90%E -1.44%K -2.04%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.34%EV -4.11%E -1.91%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.63%EV -5.38%E -1.56%K -2.19%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-16 18:51
Coral3.40I 29.41%NM 27.92%EV -4.90%E -1.44%K -2.04%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.11%E -1.91%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.92%EV -6.75%E -1.98%K -2.81%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-16 18:40
Fanatics3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -7.70%E -2.33%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -4.11%E -1.91%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -6.75%E -1.98%K -2.81%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-16 18:15
theScore Bet3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -4.90%E -1.44%K -2.04%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -6.34%E -3.02%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -6.75%E -1.98%K -2.81%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-16 18:50
Ladbrokes (AU)3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -7.70%E -2.33%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -6.34%E -3.02%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -6.75%E -1.98%K -2.81%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-16 18:40
Neds3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -7.70%E -2.33%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -6.34%E -3.02%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -6.75%E -1.98%K -2.81%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-16 18:40
Ladbrokes (UK)3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -7.70%E -2.33%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -6.34%E -3.02%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -6.75%E -1.98%K -2.81%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-16 18:40
Bet Victor3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -4.90%E -1.44%K -2.04%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -8.57%E -4.18%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -6.75%E -1.98%K -2.81%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-16 18:50
NetBet (FR)3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -7.70%E -2.33%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.72%EV -7.67%E -3.71%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.23%EV -6.75%E -1.98%K -2.81%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-16 18:50
Bovada3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -7.70%E -2.33%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.08%EV -9.01%E -4.42%K -8.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.05%EV -6.75%E -1.98%K -2.81%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-16 18:46
Sky Bet3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -13.29%E -4.29%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%EV -10.80%E -5.40%K -10.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -6.75%E -1.98%K -2.81%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-16 18:55
Unibet (NL)3.50I 28.57%NM 27.51%EV -2.10%E -0.600%K -0.840%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.76%EV -1.88%E -0.853%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.74%EV -8.12%E -2.42%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-16 18:50
Fliff3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -9.09%E -2.80%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.20%EV -10.80%E -5.40%K -10.80%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.98%EV -8.12%E -2.42%K -3.45%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-16 18:55
Unibet3.40I 29.41%NM 27.80%EV -4.90%E -1.44%K -2.04%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.56%EV -3.21%E -1.48%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV -9.49%E -2.88%K -4.13%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-16 18:45
Betway3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -7.70%E -2.33%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -6.34%E -3.02%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -9.49%E -2.88%K -4.13%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-16 18:18
888sport3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -7.70%E -2.33%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -8.57%E -4.18%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -9.49%E -2.88%K -4.13%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-16 18:50
Mr Green (SE)3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -7.70%E -2.33%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -8.57%E -4.18%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -9.49%E -2.88%K -4.13%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-16 18:55
888sport (SE)3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -7.70%E -2.33%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -8.57%E -4.18%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -9.49%E -2.88%K -4.13%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-16 18:50
William Hill3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -7.70%E -2.33%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -8.57%E -4.18%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -9.49%E -2.88%K -4.13%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-16 18:50
BetMGM3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -9.09%E -2.80%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -8.57%E -4.18%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -9.49%E -2.88%K -4.13%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-16 18:40
LiveScore Bet3.30I 30.30%NM 27.52%EV -7.70%E -2.33%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.66%EV -7.23%E -3.48%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.83%EV -13.60%E -4.32%K -6.33%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-16 18:45
Virgin Bet3.30I 30.30%NM 27.52%EV -7.70%E -2.33%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.66%EV -7.23%E -3.48%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.83%EV -13.60%E -4.32%K -6.33%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-16 18:45
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (3)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.55I 28.17%NM 28.05%2.16I 46.30%NM 46.09%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.86%0.4%2026-04-16 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.55I 28.17%NM 28.05%2.16I 46.30%NM 46.09%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.86%0.4%2026-04-16 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.55I 28.17%NM 27.83%2.14I 46.73%NM 46.17%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.00%1.2%2026-04-16 18:55