Language:English
AZ Alkmaar v FC Noah
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
AZ Alkmaar (Local)
Prediction 74.69%1.34fair odd
EV -3.64%
Edge -2.83%
Kelly -12.57%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.29
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.93%74.70%74.69%76.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.181.251.251.2984.75%80.17%80.00%77.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
FC Noah (Visit)
Prediction 9.35%10.69fair odd
EV +7.58%
Edge +0.659%
Kelly +0.722%
Growth +0.055%
assuming max odds 11.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.31%9.35%9.42%10.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.0010.0610.0011.5011.11%9.94%10.00%8.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 15.95%6.27fair odd
EV +4.32%
Edge +0.661%
Kelly +0.780%
Growth +0.034%
assuming max odds 6.54
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.47%15.95%15.89%17.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.505.875.906.5418.18%17.05%16.95%15.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: AZ Alkmaar (Local): 74.69%; FC Noah (Visit): 9.35%; Draw: 15.95%. For FC Noah (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.69. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 11.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.58%.
Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.41%EV -6.63%E -5.31%K -26.53%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.31%EV +7.58%E +0.659%K +0.722%G +0.055% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.28%EV -0.303%E -0.049%K -0.058%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.82%EV -7.38%E -5.95%K -30.75%G +0.000% | 11.27I 8.87%NM 8.45%EV +5.43%E +0.481%K +0.528%G +0.029% | 6.47I 15.46%NM 14.72%EV +3.21%E +0.496%K +0.586%G +0.019% | 5.0% | 2026-02-26 19:49 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.12%EV -6.63%E -5.31%K -26.53%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.65%EV +2.90%E +0.264%K +0.290%G +0.008% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.22%EV -0.303%E -0.049%K -0.058%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-26 19:34 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.50%EV -5.89%E -4.67%K -22.64%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.65%EV +2.90%E +0.264%K +0.290%G +0.008% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -4.29%E -0.715%K -0.858%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-26 19:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.99%EV -7.38%E -5.95%K -30.75%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.57%EV +2.90%E +0.264%K +0.290%G +0.008% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.45%EV -2.70%E -0.442%K -0.529%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-02-26 19:45 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.13%EV -6.63%E -5.31%K -26.53%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV +2.90%E +0.264%K +0.290%G +0.008% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.33%EV -8.28%E -1.44%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-02-26 16:35 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -8.87%E -7.27%K -40.33%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV +2.90%E +0.264%K +0.290%G +0.008% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -4.29%E -0.715%K -0.858%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-02-26 19:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 76.24%EV -9.62%E -7.95%K -45.81%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.39%EV +2.90%E +0.264%K +0.290%G +0.008% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.37%EV -4.29%E -0.715%K -0.858%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-02-26 19:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 76.24%EV -9.62%E -7.95%K -45.81%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.39%EV +2.90%E +0.264%K +0.290%G +0.008% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.37%EV -4.29%E -0.715%K -0.858%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.53%EV -5.14%E -4.05%K -19.03%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV -1.78%E -0.169%K -0.187%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.46%EV -8.28%E -1.44%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-02-26 19:55 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.83%EV -6.63%E -5.31%K -26.53%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.91%EV -1.78%E -0.169%K -0.187%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV -8.28%E -1.44%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-02-26 19:48 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.29%EV -7.38%E -5.95%K -30.75%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.89%EV -1.78%E -0.169%K -0.187%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.82%EV -5.89%E -0.998%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-02-26 19:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.29%EV -7.38%E -5.95%K -30.75%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.89%EV -1.78%E -0.169%K -0.187%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.82%EV -5.89%E -0.998%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-02-26 19:35 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.10%EV -5.14%E -4.05%K -19.03%G +0.000% | 10.15I 9.85%NM 9.40%EV -5.05%E -0.498%K -0.552%G +0.000% | 6.15I 16.26%NM 15.51%EV -1.90%E -0.309%K -0.369%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-02-26 18:11 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.10%EV -5.14%E -4.05%K -19.03%G +0.000% | 10.15I 9.85%NM 9.40%EV -5.05%E -0.498%K -0.552%G +0.000% | 6.15I 16.26%NM 15.51%EV -1.90%E -0.309%K -0.369%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-02-26 18:10 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.36%EV -5.14%E -4.05%K -19.03%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.57%EV -6.45%E -0.645%K -0.717%G +0.000% | 6.35I 15.75%NM 15.07%EV +1.29%E +0.203%K +0.241%G +0.003% | 4.5% | 2026-02-26 17:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -4.39%E -3.43%K -15.68%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.54%EV -6.45%E -0.645%K -0.717%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.90%EV -4.29%E -0.715%K -0.858%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-02-26 19:49 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -4.39%E -3.43%K -15.68%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.48%EV -6.45%E -0.645%K -0.717%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.48%EV -8.28%E -1.44%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-02-26 19:49 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.34%EV -3.64%E -2.83%K -12.57%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.46%EV -6.45%E -0.645%K -0.717%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.20%EV -12.27%E -2.23%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-02-26 19:49 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.30%EV -8.13%E -6.61%K -35.33%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -6.45%E -0.645%K -0.717%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.44%EV -4.29%E -0.715%K -0.858%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-02-26 19:35 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -8.87%E -7.27%K -40.33%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -6.45%E -0.645%K -0.717%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -4.29%E -0.715%K -0.858%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-02-26 19:35 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 75.60%EV -9.62%E -7.95%K -45.81%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.15%EV -6.45%E -0.645%K -0.717%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.25%EV -4.29%E -0.715%K -0.858%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-02-26 19:45 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 75.26%EV -11.86%E -10.05%K -65.89%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.88%EV -6.45%E -0.645%K -0.717%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 15.86%EV -10.67%E -1.91%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.16%EV -5.89%E -4.67%K -22.64%G +0.000% | 9.75I 10.26%NM 9.58%EV -8.79%E -0.902%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.25%EV -8.28%E -1.44%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-02-26 19:35 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.52%EV -8.13%E -6.61%K -35.33%G +0.000% | 9.75I 10.26%NM 9.40%EV -8.79%E -0.902%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.08%EV -9.08%E -1.59%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-02-26 19:55 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.30%EV -8.13%E -6.61%K -35.33%G +0.000% | 9.60I 10.42%NM 9.52%EV -10.20%E -1.06%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 5.65I 17.70%NM 16.18%EV -9.87%E -1.75%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-02-26 19:54 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.59%EV -6.63%E -5.31%K -26.53%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.68%EV -11.13%E -1.17%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -12.27%E -2.23%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-02-26 19:49 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.59%EV -6.63%E -5.31%K -26.53%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.68%EV -11.13%E -1.17%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -12.27%E -2.23%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-02-26 19:41 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.59%EV -6.63%E -5.31%K -26.53%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.68%EV -11.13%E -1.17%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -12.27%E -2.23%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-02-26 19:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.59%EV -6.63%E -5.31%K -26.53%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.68%EV -11.13%E -1.17%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -12.27%E -2.23%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-02-26 19:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.59%EV -6.63%E -5.31%K -26.53%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.68%EV -11.13%E -1.17%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -12.27%E -2.23%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-02-26 19:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.93%EV -4.39%E -3.43%K -15.68%G +0.000% | 9.25I 10.81%NM 10.09%EV -13.47%E -1.46%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.97%EV -12.27%E -2.23%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-02-26 19:49 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.93%EV -4.39%E -3.43%K -15.68%G +0.000% | 9.25I 10.81%NM 10.09%EV -13.47%E -1.46%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.97%EV -12.27%E -2.23%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-02-26 19:49 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.05%EV -5.89%E -4.67%K -22.64%G +0.000% | 9.20I 10.87%NM 10.14%EV -13.94%E -1.52%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.81%EV -5.89%E -0.998%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-02-26 19:41 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.12%EV -5.89%E -4.67%K -22.64%G +0.000% | 9.10I 10.99%NM 10.40%EV -14.87%E -1.63%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 6.54I 15.29%NM 14.47%EV +4.32%E +0.661%K +0.780%G +0.034% | 5.6% | 2026-02-26 19:49 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.42%EV -5.14%E -4.05%K -19.03%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -15.81%E -1.76%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.22%EV -8.28%E -1.44%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-02-26 16:10 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -6.63%E -5.31%K -26.53%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.31%EV -15.81%E -1.76%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.46%EV -4.29%E -0.715%K -0.858%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-02-26 19:55 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 73.99%EV -10.37%E -8.64%K -51.84%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.87%EV -15.81%E -1.76%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -12.27%E -2.23%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.72% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.65% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.63% | 0.5% | 2026-02-26 19:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.72% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.65% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.63% | 0.5% | 2026-02-26 19:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.72% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.65% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.63% | 0.5% | 2026-02-26 19:55 |