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AZ Alkmaar v FC Noah
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
AZ Alkmaar (Local)
Predicción 74.69%1.34momio equitativo
EV -3.64%
Ventaja -2.83%
Kelly -12.57%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.29
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
72.93%74.70%74.69%76.82%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.181.251.251.2984.75%80.17%80.00%77.52%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
FC Noah (Visitante)
Predicción 9.35%10.69momio equitativo
EV +7.58%
Ventaja +0.659%
Kelly +0.722%
Crecimiento +0.055%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 11.50
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
8.31%9.35%9.42%10.40%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
9.0010.0610.0011.5011.11%9.94%10.00%8.70%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 15.95%6.27momio equitativo
EV +4.32%
Ventaja +0.661%
Kelly +0.780%
Crecimiento +0.034%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.54
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
14.47%15.95%15.89%17.20%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
5.505.875.906.5418.18%17.05%16.95%15.29%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: AZ Alkmaar (Local): 74.69%; FC Noah (Visitante): 9.35%; Empate: 15.95%. Para FC Noah (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 10.69. 9 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 11.50, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +7.58%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (38 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.41%EV -6.63%E -5.31%K -26.53%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.31%EV +7.58%E +0.659%K +0.722%G +0.055% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.28%EV -0.303%E -0.049%K -0.058%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.82%EV -7.38%E -5.95%K -30.75%G +0.000% | 11.27I 8.87%NM 8.45%EV +5.43%E +0.481%K +0.528%G +0.029% | 6.47I 15.46%NM 14.72%EV +3.21%E +0.496%K +0.586%G +0.019% | 5.0% | 2026-02-26 19:49 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.12%EV -6.63%E -5.31%K -26.53%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.65%EV +2.90%E +0.264%K +0.290%G +0.008% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.22%EV -0.303%E -0.049%K -0.058%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-26 19:34 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.50%EV -5.89%E -4.67%K -22.64%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.65%EV +2.90%E +0.264%K +0.290%G +0.008% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -4.29%E -0.715%K -0.858%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-26 19:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.99%EV -7.38%E -5.95%K -30.75%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.57%EV +2.90%E +0.264%K +0.290%G +0.008% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.45%EV -2.70%E -0.442%K -0.529%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-02-26 19:45 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.13%EV -6.63%E -5.31%K -26.53%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV +2.90%E +0.264%K +0.290%G +0.008% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.33%EV -8.28%E -1.44%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-02-26 16:35 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -8.87%E -7.27%K -40.33%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV +2.90%E +0.264%K +0.290%G +0.008% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -4.29%E -0.715%K -0.858%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-02-26 19:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 76.24%EV -9.62%E -7.95%K -45.81%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.39%EV +2.90%E +0.264%K +0.290%G +0.008% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.37%EV -4.29%E -0.715%K -0.858%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-02-26 19:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 76.24%EV -9.62%E -7.95%K -45.81%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.39%EV +2.90%E +0.264%K +0.290%G +0.008% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.37%EV -4.29%E -0.715%K -0.858%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.53%EV -5.14%E -4.05%K -19.03%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV -1.78%E -0.169%K -0.187%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.46%EV -8.28%E -1.44%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-02-26 19:55 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.83%EV -6.63%E -5.31%K -26.53%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.91%EV -1.78%E -0.169%K -0.187%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV -8.28%E -1.44%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-02-26 19:48 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.29%EV -7.38%E -5.95%K -30.75%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.89%EV -1.78%E -0.169%K -0.187%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.82%EV -5.89%E -0.998%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-02-26 19:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.29%EV -7.38%E -5.95%K -30.75%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.89%EV -1.78%E -0.169%K -0.187%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.82%EV -5.89%E -0.998%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-02-26 19:35 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.10%EV -5.14%E -4.05%K -19.03%G +0.000% | 10.15I 9.85%NM 9.40%EV -5.05%E -0.498%K -0.552%G +0.000% | 6.15I 16.26%NM 15.51%EV -1.90%E -0.309%K -0.369%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-02-26 18:11 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.10%EV -5.14%E -4.05%K -19.03%G +0.000% | 10.15I 9.85%NM 9.40%EV -5.05%E -0.498%K -0.552%G +0.000% | 6.15I 16.26%NM 15.51%EV -1.90%E -0.309%K -0.369%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-02-26 18:10 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.36%EV -5.14%E -4.05%K -19.03%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.57%EV -6.45%E -0.645%K -0.717%G +0.000% | 6.35I 15.75%NM 15.07%EV +1.29%E +0.203%K +0.241%G +0.003% | 4.5% | 2026-02-26 17:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -4.39%E -3.43%K -15.68%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.54%EV -6.45%E -0.645%K -0.717%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.90%EV -4.29%E -0.715%K -0.858%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-02-26 19:49 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -4.39%E -3.43%K -15.68%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.48%EV -6.45%E -0.645%K -0.717%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.48%EV -8.28%E -1.44%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-02-26 19:49 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.34%EV -3.64%E -2.83%K -12.57%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.46%EV -6.45%E -0.645%K -0.717%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.20%EV -12.27%E -2.23%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-02-26 19:49 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.30%EV -8.13%E -6.61%K -35.33%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -6.45%E -0.645%K -0.717%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.44%EV -4.29%E -0.715%K -0.858%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-02-26 19:35 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -8.87%E -7.27%K -40.33%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -6.45%E -0.645%K -0.717%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -4.29%E -0.715%K -0.858%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-02-26 19:35 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 75.60%EV -9.62%E -7.95%K -45.81%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.15%EV -6.45%E -0.645%K -0.717%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.25%EV -4.29%E -0.715%K -0.858%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-02-26 19:45 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 75.26%EV -11.86%E -10.05%K -65.89%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.88%EV -6.45%E -0.645%K -0.717%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 15.86%EV -10.67%E -1.91%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.16%EV -5.89%E -4.67%K -22.64%G +0.000% | 9.75I 10.26%NM 9.58%EV -8.79%E -0.902%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.25%EV -8.28%E -1.44%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-02-26 19:35 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.52%EV -8.13%E -6.61%K -35.33%G +0.000% | 9.75I 10.26%NM 9.40%EV -8.79%E -0.902%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.08%EV -9.08%E -1.59%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-02-26 19:55 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.30%EV -8.13%E -6.61%K -35.33%G +0.000% | 9.60I 10.42%NM 9.52%EV -10.20%E -1.06%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 5.65I 17.70%NM 16.18%EV -9.87%E -1.75%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-02-26 19:54 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.59%EV -6.63%E -5.31%K -26.53%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.68%EV -11.13%E -1.17%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -12.27%E -2.23%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-02-26 19:49 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.59%EV -6.63%E -5.31%K -26.53%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.68%EV -11.13%E -1.17%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -12.27%E -2.23%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-02-26 19:41 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.59%EV -6.63%E -5.31%K -26.53%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.68%EV -11.13%E -1.17%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -12.27%E -2.23%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-02-26 19:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.59%EV -6.63%E -5.31%K -26.53%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.68%EV -11.13%E -1.17%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -12.27%E -2.23%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-02-26 19:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.59%EV -6.63%E -5.31%K -26.53%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.68%EV -11.13%E -1.17%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -12.27%E -2.23%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-02-26 19:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.93%EV -4.39%E -3.43%K -15.68%G +0.000% | 9.25I 10.81%NM 10.09%EV -13.47%E -1.46%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.97%EV -12.27%E -2.23%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-02-26 19:49 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.93%EV -4.39%E -3.43%K -15.68%G +0.000% | 9.25I 10.81%NM 10.09%EV -13.47%E -1.46%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.97%EV -12.27%E -2.23%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-02-26 19:49 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.05%EV -5.89%E -4.67%K -22.64%G +0.000% | 9.20I 10.87%NM 10.14%EV -13.94%E -1.52%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.81%EV -5.89%E -0.998%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-02-26 19:41 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.12%EV -5.89%E -4.67%K -22.64%G +0.000% | 9.10I 10.99%NM 10.40%EV -14.87%E -1.63%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 6.54I 15.29%NM 14.47%EV +4.32%E +0.661%K +0.780%G +0.034% | 5.6% | 2026-02-26 19:49 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.42%EV -5.14%E -4.05%K -19.03%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -15.81%E -1.76%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.22%EV -8.28%E -1.44%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-02-26 16:10 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -6.63%E -5.31%K -26.53%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.31%EV -15.81%E -1.76%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.46%EV -4.29%E -0.715%K -0.858%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-02-26 19:55 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 73.99%EV -10.37%E -8.64%K -51.84%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.87%EV -15.81%E -1.76%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -12.27%E -2.23%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (3)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.72% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.65% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.63% | 0.5% | 2026-02-26 19:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.72% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.65% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.63% | 0.5% | 2026-02-26 19:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.72% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.65% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.63% | 0.5% | 2026-02-26 19:55 |