Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Thun v FC Lugano

Kickoff: 2026-04-25 18:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Thun (Local)

Prediction 48.88%2.05fair odd
EV -5.18%
Edge -2.67%
Kelly -5.51%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.94

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.21%48.94%48.84%50.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.781.881.901.9456.18%53.13%52.63%51.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Lugano (Visit)

Prediction 26.86%3.72fair odd
EV -1.16%
Edge -0.316%
Kelly -0.434%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.66%26.80%26.89%27.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.413.453.6832.26%29.30%28.99%27.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.27%4.12fair odd
EV -2.94%
Edge -0.734%
Kelly -0.979%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.10%24.26%24.27%26.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.703.604.0030.30%27.02%27.78%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Thun (Local): 48.88%; FC Lugano (Visit): 26.86%; Draw: 24.27%. For FC Lugano (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.72. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.68, with an expected value of -1.16%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.96%EV -5.18%E -2.67%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.68%EV -4.39%E -1.23%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.36%EV -5.36%E -1.38%K -1.85%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-22 19:05
BetUS🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.36%EV -5.67%E -2.94%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.67I 27.25%NM 25.96%EV -1.43%E -0.390%K -0.536%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 24.68%EV -6.33%E -1.64%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-23 07:34
Coolbet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.17%EV -5.67%E -2.94%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -6.00%E -1.71%K -2.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.72%EV -2.94%E -0.734%K -0.979%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-23 06:24
LowVig.ag🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.37%EV -5.67%E -2.94%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -7.34%E -2.13%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -7.79%E -2.05%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-22 22:35
BetOnline.ag🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.37%EV -5.67%E -2.94%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -7.34%E -2.13%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -7.79%E -2.05%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-22 22:35
1xBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.78%EV -6.16%E -3.21%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.24%EV -4.12%E -1.15%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.98%EV -9.00%E -2.40%K -3.27%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-22 19:05
LeoVegas🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.85%EV -6.16%E -3.21%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -7.34%E -2.13%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -12.64%E -3.51%K -4.86%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-18 18:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.85%EV -6.16%E -3.21%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -7.34%E -2.13%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -12.64%E -3.51%K -4.86%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-18 18:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.85%EV -6.16%E -3.21%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -7.34%E -2.13%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -12.64%E -3.51%K -4.86%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-18 18:50
Casumo🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.85%EV -6.16%E -3.21%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -7.34%E -2.13%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -12.64%E -3.51%K -4.86%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-18 18:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.85%EV -6.16%E -3.21%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -7.34%E -2.13%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -12.64%E -3.51%K -4.86%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-18 18:50
Unibet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.85%EV -6.16%E -3.21%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -7.34%E -2.13%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -12.64%E -3.51%K -4.86%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-18 18:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.85%EV -6.16%E -3.21%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -7.34%E -2.13%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -12.64%E -3.51%K -4.86%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-18 18:50
TABtouch🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.85%EV -6.16%E -3.21%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -7.34%E -2.13%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -12.64%E -3.51%K -4.86%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-18 18:50
Grosvenor🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.85%EV -6.16%E -3.21%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -7.34%E -2.13%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -12.64%E -3.51%K -4.86%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-18 18:50
BetRivers🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.85%EV -6.16%E -3.21%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -7.34%E -2.13%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -12.64%E -3.51%K -4.86%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-18 18:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.85%EV -6.16%E -3.21%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -7.34%E -2.13%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -12.64%E -3.51%K -4.86%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-18 18:50
betPARX🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.85%EV -6.16%E -3.21%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -7.34%E -2.13%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -12.64%E -3.51%K -4.86%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-18 18:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.85%EV -6.16%E -3.21%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -7.34%E -2.13%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -12.64%E -3.51%K -4.86%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-18 18:50
Unibet (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.94%EV -6.65%E -3.48%K -7.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.09%EV -7.34%E -2.13%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.97%EV -5.36%E -1.38%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 12:19
BetMGM🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -6.65%E -3.48%K -7.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -6.00%E -1.71%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -7.79%E -2.05%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-21 06:55
DraftKings🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.79%EV -6.65%E -3.48%K -7.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.01%EV -7.34%E -2.13%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.20%EV -6.58%E -1.71%K -2.31%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-23 07:45
PlayUp🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.21%EV -6.65%E -3.48%K -7.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.74%EV -12.71%E -3.91%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.05%EV -12.64%E -3.51%K -4.86%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-22 19:01
GTbets🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.69%EV -7.14%E -3.76%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.66%EV -1.16%E -0.316%K -0.434%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 24.65%EV -7.06%E -1.84%K -2.50%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-19 00:15
Marathon Bet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.08%EV -7.14%E -3.76%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.05%EV -3.85%E -1.07%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -9.00%E -2.40%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-22 18:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.88%EV -7.14%E -3.76%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.31%EV -8.68%E -2.55%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.81%EV -5.36%E -1.38%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-20 22:05
NordicBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.57%EV -7.14%E -3.76%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.14%EV -8.68%E -2.55%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV -7.79%E -2.05%K -2.78%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-23 12:20
Betsson🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.57%EV -7.14%E -3.76%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.14%EV -8.68%E -2.55%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV -7.79%E -2.05%K -2.78%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-23 12:20
betfred_uk🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.41%EV -7.14%E -3.76%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -8.68%E -2.55%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -9.00%E -2.40%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-20 22:05
Bovada🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.74%EV -7.62%E -4.03%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.70%EV -7.34%E -2.13%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.56%EV -9.00%E -2.40%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-22 19:02
LiveScore Bet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.24%EV -7.62%E -4.03%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.43%EV -7.34%E -2.13%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.33%EV -12.64%E -3.51%K -4.86%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-18 18:50
Betway🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.43%EV -8.11%E -4.32%K -9.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -8.68%E -2.55%K -3.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -2.94%E -0.734%K -0.979%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-23 11:00
Bet Right🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.84%EV -8.11%E -4.32%K -9.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -8.68%E -2.55%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -7.79%E -2.05%K -2.78%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-23 06:24
PMU (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.38%EV -8.11%E -4.32%K -9.22%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.36%EV -7.34%E -2.13%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.26%EV -12.64%E -3.51%K -4.86%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-18 18:50
Bet Victor🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.81%EV -8.60%E -4.60%K -9.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -8.68%E -2.55%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.34%EV -9.00%E -2.40%K -3.27%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-23 11:14
SportsBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.54%EV -9.58%E -5.18%K -11.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.96%EV -8.68%E -2.55%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -5.36%E -1.38%K -1.85%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-20 22:05
Paddy Power🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.24%EV -9.58%E -5.18%K -11.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -8.68%E -2.55%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -7.79%E -2.05%K -2.78%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-20 22:04
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.96%EV -9.58%E -5.18%K -11.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.88%EV -6.00%E -1.71%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%EV -12.64%E -3.51%K -4.86%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-18 18:54
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.96%EV -9.58%E -5.18%K -11.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.88%EV -6.00%E -1.71%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%EV -12.64%E -3.51%K -4.86%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-18 18:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.96%EV -9.58%E -5.18%K -11.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.88%EV -6.00%E -1.71%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%EV -12.64%E -3.51%K -4.86%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-18 18:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.96%EV -9.58%E -5.18%K -11.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.88%EV -6.00%E -1.71%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%EV -12.64%E -3.51%K -4.86%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-18 18:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.20%EV -9.58%E -5.18%K -11.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.02%EV -11.37%E -3.44%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.77%EV -12.64%E -3.51%K -4.86%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-21 07:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.20%EV -9.58%E -5.18%K -11.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.02%EV -11.37%E -3.44%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.77%EV -12.64%E -3.51%K -4.86%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-21 06:55
Neds🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.20%EV -9.58%E -5.18%K -11.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.02%EV -11.37%E -3.44%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.77%EV -12.64%E -3.51%K -4.86%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-21 06:55
Coral🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.20%EV -9.58%E -5.18%K -11.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.02%EV -11.37%E -3.44%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.77%EV -12.64%E -3.51%K -4.86%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-21 07:00
Winamax (DE)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 48.56%EV -10.07%E -5.47%K -11.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -14.05%E -4.39%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.51%EV -7.79%E -2.05%K -2.78%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-23 12:19
FanDuel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.50%EV -10.56%E -5.77%K -12.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -6.00%E -1.71%K -2.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.10%EV -2.94%E -0.734%K -0.979%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-23 18:32
Sky Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.75%EV -10.56%E -5.77%K -12.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.45%EV -12.71%E -3.91%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.79%EV -9.00%E -2.40%K -3.27%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-22 18:35
Betclic (FR)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.74%EV -10.56%E -5.77%K -12.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.03%EV -11.37%E -3.44%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 24.24%EV -10.70%E -2.91%K -3.99%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-23 18:38
Everygame🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.28%EV -10.56%E -5.77%K -12.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.18%EV -12.71%E -3.91%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.54%EV -12.64%E -3.51%K -4.86%G +0.000%13.2%2026-04-23 05:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 47.41%EV -10.56%E -5.77%K -12.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.29%EV -11.37%E -3.44%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.29%EV -19.92%E -6.04%K -8.66%G +0.000%15.3%2026-04-22 18:35
Winamax (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 48.06%EV -12.02%E -6.68%K -15.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.91%EV -16.74%E -5.40%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.03%EV -12.64%E -3.51%K -4.86%G +0.000%15.6%2026-04-23 12:20
BoyleSports🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 48.06%EV -12.02%E -6.68%K -15.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.91%EV -16.74%E -5.40%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.03%EV -12.64%E -3.51%K -4.86%G +0.000%15.6%2026-04-18 18:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 49.49%EV -13.00%E -7.30%K -16.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.70%EV -11.37%E -3.44%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.81%EV -10.22%E -2.76%K -3.78%G +0.000%13.5%2026-04-23 18:34
NetBet (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 49.17%EV -13.00%E -7.30%K -16.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.52%EV -11.37%E -3.44%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.31%EV -12.64%E -3.51%K -4.86%G +0.000%14.3%2026-04-23 18:58
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.92I 52.08%NM 46.45%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.78%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%12.1%2026-04-24 03:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.92I 52.08%NM 46.45%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.78%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%12.1%2026-04-24 03:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.92I 52.08%NM 46.01%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.54%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%13.2%2026-04-24 03:50
Smarkets1.90I 52.63%NM 45.71%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.72%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.57%15.1%2026-04-24 03:50