Language:English
Motherwell v Celtic
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Motherwell (Local)
Prediction 20.24%4.94fair odd
EV +3.24%
Edge +0.636%
Kelly +0.791%
Growth +0.026%
assuming max odds 5.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.60%20.25%20.19%21.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.684.685.1023.81%21.37%21.39%19.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Celtic (Visit)
Prediction 57.89%1.73fair odd
EV -2.75%
Edge -1.64%
Kelly -4.05%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.68
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.27%57.93%57.85%59.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.481.601.601.6867.57%62.47%62.50%59.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 21.87%4.57fair odd
EV +3.88%
Edge +0.818%
Kelly +1.04%
Growth +0.040%
assuming max odds 4.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.68%21.81%21.95%22.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.254.204.7525.00%23.52%23.81%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Motherwell (Local): 20.24%; Celtic (Visit): 57.89%; Draw: 21.87%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.57. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.88%.
Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sky Bet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -8.90%E -1.98%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.54%EV -9.12%E -5.81%K -16.00%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.68%EV +3.88%E +0.818%K +1.04%G +0.040% | 7.0% | 2026-05-13 18:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.82I 20.75%NM 20.02%EV -2.42%E -0.503%K -0.635%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 59.19%EV -5.65%E -3.46%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 4.64I 21.55%NM 20.79%EV +1.48%E +0.319%K +0.406%G +0.006% | 3.6% | 2026-05-13 18:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.19%EV -0.805%E -0.164%K -0.206%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.91%EV -9.12%E -5.81%K -16.00%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -1.58%E -0.352%K -0.452%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-13 17:59 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.57I 21.88%NM 21.01%EV -7.49%E -1.64%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.16%EV -2.75%E -1.64%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.83%EV -3.77%E -0.857%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-13 18:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -6.88%E -1.50%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.68%EV -4.49%E -2.72%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.63%EV -3.77%E -0.857%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-13 18:10 |
| Everygame🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.68%EV -8.90%E -1.98%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.17%EV -7.38%E -4.61%K -12.30%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -3.77%E -0.857%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-13 18:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.59%EV -3.84%E -0.809%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.26%EV -9.12%E -5.81%K -16.00%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -3.77%E -0.857%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-13 18:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.59%EV -3.84%E -0.809%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.26%EV -9.12%E -5.81%K -16.00%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -3.77%E -0.857%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-13 18:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.23%EV -7.89%E -1.73%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.62%EV -9.12%E -5.81%K -16.00%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.16%EV -4.86%E -1.12%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-13 18:45 |
| BetUS🎯 | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.23%EV -7.89%E -1.73%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.62%EV -9.12%E -5.81%K -16.00%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.16%EV -4.86%E -1.12%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-13 18:44 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.50%EV -10.93%E -2.48%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.65%EV -3.33%E -1.99%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.85%EV -5.30%E -1.22%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-13 18:10 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.08%EV -5.87%E -1.26%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.36%EV -7.38%E -4.61%K -12.30%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.56%EV -5.30%E -1.22%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-13 18:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -8.90%E -1.98%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.82%EV -6.80%E -4.23%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.50%EV -5.30%E -1.22%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-13 18:45 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.00%EV -3.84%E -0.809%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.92%EV -5.07%E -3.09%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.09%EV -5.96%E -1.39%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-13 18:15 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.10%EV -10.93%E -2.48%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.31%EV -6.22%E -3.84%K -10.04%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.59%EV -5.96%E -1.39%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-13 18:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.10%EV -10.93%E -2.48%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.31%EV -6.22%E -3.84%K -10.04%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.59%EV -5.96%E -1.39%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-13 18:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.63%EV +3.24%E +0.636%K +0.791%G +0.026% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.01%EV -6.80%E -4.23%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.36%EV -7.05%E -1.66%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-13 18:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.63%EV +3.24%E +0.636%K +0.791%G +0.026% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.01%EV -6.80%E -4.23%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.36%EV -7.05%E -1.66%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-13 18:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.80%EV -3.84%E -0.809%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.06%EV -6.22%E -3.84%K -10.04%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.13%EV -7.05%E -1.66%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-13 18:15 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.32%EV -6.88%E -1.50%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.69%EV -6.22%E -3.84%K -10.04%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.99%EV -7.05%E -1.66%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-13 18:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.83%EV -4.85%E -1.03%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.24%EV -7.38%E -4.61%K -12.30%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.93%EV -7.05%E -1.66%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-13 18:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.83%EV -4.85%E -1.03%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.24%EV -7.38%E -4.61%K -12.30%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.93%EV -7.05%E -1.66%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-13 18:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -8.90%E -1.98%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.74%EV -7.38%E -4.61%K -12.30%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.74%EV -7.05%E -1.66%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-13 18:20 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.95%EV +1.22%E +0.244%K +0.305%G +0.004% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.49%EV -6.22%E -3.84%K -10.04%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.56%EV -8.14%E -1.94%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-13 18:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV +1.22%E +0.244%K +0.305%G +0.004% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.79%EV -7.38%E -4.61%K -12.30%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -8.14%E -1.94%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-13 18:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV +1.22%E +0.244%K +0.305%G +0.004% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.79%EV -7.38%E -4.61%K -12.30%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -8.14%E -1.94%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-13 18:15 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV +1.22%E +0.244%K +0.305%G +0.004% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.79%EV -7.38%E -4.61%K -12.30%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -8.14%E -1.94%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-13 18:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV +1.22%E +0.244%K +0.305%G +0.004% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.79%EV -7.38%E -4.61%K -12.30%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -8.14%E -1.94%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-13 18:16 |
| Neds🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.36%EV -10.93%E -2.48%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.27%EV -3.33%E -1.99%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -8.14%E -1.94%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-13 18:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.36%EV -10.93%E -2.48%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.27%EV -3.33%E -1.99%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -8.14%E -1.94%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-13 18:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.36%EV -10.93%E -2.48%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.27%EV -3.33%E -1.99%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -8.14%E -1.94%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-13 18:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.92%EV -4.85%E -1.03%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.79%EV -6.22%E -3.84%K -10.04%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.29%EV -8.14%E -1.94%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-13 18:16 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.44%EV -2.83%E -0.590%K -0.745%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.33%EV -7.38%E -4.61%K -12.30%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -8.14%E -1.94%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-13 18:54 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV +1.22%E +0.244%K +0.305%G +0.004% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.25%EV -9.12%E -5.81%K -16.00%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.15%EV -8.14%E -1.94%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-13 18:15 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV +1.22%E +0.244%K +0.305%G +0.004% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.25%EV -9.12%E -5.81%K -16.00%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.15%EV -8.14%E -1.94%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-13 18:15 |
| Casumo🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV +1.22%E +0.244%K +0.305%G +0.004% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.25%EV -9.12%E -5.81%K -16.00%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.15%EV -8.14%E -1.94%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-13 18:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV +1.22%E +0.244%K +0.305%G +0.004% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.25%EV -9.12%E -5.81%K -16.00%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.15%EV -8.14%E -1.94%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-13 18:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.48%EV -12.34%E -2.85%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.37%EV -4.49%E -2.72%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.15%EV -8.14%E -1.94%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-13 18:11 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.19%EV -6.88%E -1.50%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.69%EV -6.80%E -4.23%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.12%EV -8.14%E -1.94%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-13 18:15 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.62%EV -8.90%E -1.98%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.28%EV -6.22%E -3.84%K -10.04%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.09%EV -8.14%E -1.94%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-13 18:05 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.55%EV -8.90%E -1.98%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.43%EV -6.80%E -4.23%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.02%EV -8.14%E -1.94%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-13 18:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.55%EV -8.90%E -1.98%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.43%EV -6.80%E -4.23%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.02%EV -8.14%E -1.94%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-13 18:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.55%EV -8.90%E -1.98%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.43%EV -6.80%E -4.23%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.02%EV -8.14%E -1.94%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-13 18:05 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.62%EV -14.98%E -3.57%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.76%EV -7.38%E -4.61%K -12.30%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.62%EV -8.14%E -1.94%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-13 18:10 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.51%EV -8.90%E -1.98%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.98%EV -6.22%E -3.84%K -10.04%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.51%EV -10.33%E -2.52%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-13 18:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.74%EV -0.805%E -0.164%K -0.206%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.86%EV -9.70%E -6.22%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.40%EV -10.33%E -2.52%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-13 18:16 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.74%EV -0.805%E -0.164%K -0.206%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.86%EV -9.70%E -6.22%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.40%EV -10.33%E -2.52%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-13 18:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.91%EV -2.83%E -0.590%K -0.745%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 58.95%EV -10.86%E -7.05%K -20.10%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.14%EV -10.33%E -2.52%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-13 18:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.91%EV -2.83%E -0.590%K -0.745%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 58.95%EV -10.86%E -7.05%K -20.10%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.14%EV -10.33%E -2.52%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-13 18:16 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.91%EV -2.83%E -0.590%K -0.745%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 58.95%EV -10.86%E -7.05%K -20.10%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.14%EV -10.33%E -2.52%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-13 18:15 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 4.45I 22.47%NM 20.25%EV -9.91%E -2.23%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 57.77%EV -9.70%E -6.22%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.98%EV -10.33%E -2.52%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-05-13 18:35 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.08%EV -12.95%E -3.01%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 58.34%EV -14.33%E -9.68%K -29.85%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.58%EV -12.52%E -3.13%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 15.8% | 2026-05-13 18:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.11% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.60% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.28% | 0.6% | 2026-05-13 18:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.42% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.38% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.21% | 1.0% | 2026-05-13 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.42% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.38% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.21% | 1.0% | 2026-05-13 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.42% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.38% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.21% | 1.0% | 2026-05-13 18:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.42% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.38% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.21% | 1.0% | 2026-05-13 18:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.61% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 59.79% | 4.76I 21.01%NM 20.60% | 2.0% | 2026-05-13 18:55 |