Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.89
assuming max odds 4.23
assuming max odds 3.90
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Motherwell (Local): 51.32%; Aberdeen (Visit): 23.28%; Draw: 25.40%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.94. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.90, with an expected value of -0.932%; they did not produce positive expected value.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 51.05%EV -3.00%E -1.59%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 4.23I 23.64%NM 22.81%EV -1.54%E -0.364%K -0.476%G +0.000% | 3.69I 27.10%NM 26.15%EV -6.27%E -1.70%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-15 18:41 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.89%EV -5.06%E -2.73%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV -4.56%E -1.11%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -8.55%E -2.38%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-15 18:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.89%EV -5.06%E -2.73%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV -4.56%E -1.11%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -8.55%E -2.38%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-15 18:41 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.82%EV -5.06%E -2.73%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -9.22%E -2.36%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.07%EV -4.74%E -1.26%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-15 18:41 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -5.06%E -2.73%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -9.22%E -2.36%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -6.01%E -1.63%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-15 18:40 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.96%EV -5.06%E -2.73%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.01%EV -10.38%E -2.70%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.03%EV -9.82%E -2.77%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-15 18:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.89%EV -5.06%E -2.73%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.36%EV -8.06%E -2.04%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -12.36%E -3.58%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-15 18:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.89%EV -5.06%E -2.73%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.36%EV -8.06%E -2.04%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -12.36%E -3.58%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-15 18:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.33%EV -6.08%E -3.32%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.80%EV -2.24%E -0.533%K -0.699%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.87%EV -2.20%E -0.572%K -0.773%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-12 21:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.57%EV -6.08%E -3.32%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.59%EV -6.89%E -1.72%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.84%EV -3.47%E -0.914%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-12 21:01 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.40%EV -6.08%E -3.32%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -6.89%E -1.72%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -4.74%E -1.26%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-12 21:00 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.40%EV -6.08%E -3.32%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -6.89%E -1.72%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -4.74%E -1.26%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-15 18:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.23%EV -6.08%E -3.32%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -6.89%E -1.72%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.34%EV -6.01%E -1.63%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-15 18:26 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.16%EV -6.08%E -3.32%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.83%EV -4.56%E -1.11%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.01%EV -8.55%E -2.38%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-15 18:16 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.16%EV -6.08%E -3.32%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.83%EV -4.56%E -1.11%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.01%EV -8.55%E -2.38%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-15 18:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.87%EV -6.08%E -3.32%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.27%EV -6.89%E -1.72%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV -8.55%E -2.38%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-15 18:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.50%EV -6.08%E -3.32%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.10%EV -6.89%E -1.72%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -11.09%E -3.17%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-15 18:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.71%EV -6.60%E -3.62%K -8.04%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -6.89%E -1.72%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.77%EV -3.47%E -0.914%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-12 21:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.39%EV -6.60%E -3.62%K -8.04%G +0.000% | 4.08I 24.51%NM 22.92%EV -5.03%E -1.23%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 3.64I 27.47%NM 25.69%EV -7.54%E -2.07%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-15 18:21 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.01%EV -6.60%E -3.62%K -8.04%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.21%EV -6.89%E -1.72%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -8.55%E -2.38%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-15 17:55 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.35%EV -7.11%E -3.93%K -8.78%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.53%EV -8.06%E -2.04%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -6.01%E -1.63%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-12 21:00 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 50.19%EV -7.11%E -3.93%K -8.78%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.22%EV -12.71%E -3.39%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.59%EV -9.82%E -2.77%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-15 18:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.31%EV -7.62%E -4.23%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -6.89%E -1.72%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -0.932%E -0.239%K -0.321%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-15 17:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.11%EV -7.62%E -4.23%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.88%EV -4.56%E -1.11%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.01%EV -4.74%E -1.26%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-15 17:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.11%EV -7.62%E -4.23%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.88%EV -4.56%E -1.11%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.01%EV -4.74%E -1.26%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-15 17:45 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.11%EV -7.62%E -4.23%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.88%EV -4.56%E -1.11%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.01%EV -4.74%E -1.26%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-15 18:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.98%EV -7.62%E -4.23%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -6.89%E -1.72%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -3.47%E -0.914%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-15 17:45 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.98%EV -7.62%E -4.23%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -6.89%E -1.72%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -3.47%E -0.914%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-15 17:45 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.98%EV -7.62%E -4.23%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -6.89%E -1.72%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -3.47%E -0.914%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-15 17:45 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.98%EV -7.62%E -4.23%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -6.89%E -1.72%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -3.47%E -0.914%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-15 17:45 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.93%EV -7.62%E -4.23%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -4.56%E -1.11%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -6.01%E -1.63%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-15 17:59 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.72%EV -7.62%E -4.23%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.71%EV -4.56%E -1.11%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 3.64I 27.47%NM 25.58%EV -7.54%E -2.07%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-15 18:16 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -7.62%E -4.23%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -11.55%E -3.04%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -3.47%E -0.914%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-15 17:56 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.28%EV -7.62%E -4.23%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -6.89%E -1.72%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -8.55%E -2.38%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-15 17:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.98%EV -7.62%E -4.23%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -9.22%E -2.36%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -8.55%E -2.38%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-15 18:41 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.98%EV -7.62%E -4.23%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -9.22%E -2.36%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -8.55%E -2.38%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-15 18:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.98%EV -7.62%E -4.23%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -9.22%E -2.36%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -8.55%E -2.38%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-15 18:41 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.98%EV -7.62%E -4.23%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -9.22%E -2.36%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -8.55%E -2.38%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-15 18:35 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.25%EV -8.14%E -4.54%K -10.30%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV -4.56%E -1.11%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.94%EV -4.74%E -1.26%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-15 18:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.25%EV -8.14%E -4.54%K -10.30%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV -4.56%E -1.11%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.94%EV -4.74%E -1.26%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-15 18:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.59%EV -8.65%E -4.86%K -11.09%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.25%EV -8.06%E -2.04%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.16%EV -7.28%E -2.00%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-15 18:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.59%EV -8.65%E -4.86%K -11.09%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.25%EV -8.06%E -2.04%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.16%EV -7.28%E -2.00%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-15 18:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.59%EV -8.65%E -4.86%K -11.09%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.25%EV -8.06%E -2.04%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.16%EV -7.28%E -2.00%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-15 18:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.59%EV -8.65%E -4.86%K -11.09%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.25%EV -8.06%E -2.04%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.16%EV -7.28%E -2.00%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-15 18:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.59%EV -8.65%E -4.86%K -11.09%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.25%EV -8.06%E -2.04%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.16%EV -7.28%E -2.00%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-15 18:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.59%EV -8.65%E -4.86%K -11.09%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.25%EV -8.06%E -2.04%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.16%EV -7.28%E -2.00%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-15 18:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.59%EV -8.65%E -4.86%K -11.09%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.25%EV -8.06%E -2.04%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.16%EV -7.28%E -2.00%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-15 18:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 51.54%EV -9.67%E -5.50%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.26%EV -9.22%E -2.36%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.20%EV -8.55%E -2.38%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-15 18:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.64%EV -10.19%E -5.82%K -13.58%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.47%EV -4.56%E -1.11%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -6.01%E -1.63%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-15 18:30 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.37%EV -10.19%E -5.82%K -13.58%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.66%EV -11.55%E -3.04%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -8.55%E -2.38%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-09-14 22:10 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.35%EV -10.19%E -5.82%K -13.58%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.34%EV -10.38%E -2.70%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.31%EV -9.82%E -2.77%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-09-15 18:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 51.49%EV -10.70%E -6.15%K -14.46%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.27%EV -10.38%E -2.70%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.24%EV -9.82%E -2.77%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-09-15 17:50 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 51.29%EV -11.21%E -6.48%K -15.36%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.35%EV -11.55%E -3.04%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.35%EV -11.09%E -3.17%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-09-15 18:25 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 51.48%EV -11.73%E -6.82%K -16.29%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.93%EV -13.88%E -3.75%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.59%EV -8.55%E -2.38%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-09-15 18:40 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.93I 51.81%NM 51.72% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.69% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.59% | 0.2% | 2026-09-15 18:41 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.93I 51.81%NM 51.45% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.09% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.46% | 0.7% | 2026-09-15 18:41 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.93I 51.81%NM 51.45% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.09% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.46% | 0.7% | 2026-09-15 18:41 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.58% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.03% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.39% | 1.0% | 2026-09-15 18:41 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.93I 51.81%NM 51.28% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.02% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.71% | 1.0% | 2026-09-15 18:41 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.54% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.75% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.71% | 1.0% | 2026-09-15 18:35 |