Language:English
Sporting Gijón v AD Ceuta FC
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Sporting Gijón (Local)
Prediction 62.49%1.60fair odd
EV -4.39%
Edge -2.87%
Kelly -8.29%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.53
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.52%62.36%62.55%63.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.391.481.481.5371.94%67.71%67.57%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
AD Ceuta FC (Visit)
Prediction 15.78%6.34fair odd
EV +1.17%
Edge +0.182%
Kelly +0.216%
Growth +0.003%
assuming max odds 6.41
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.86%15.91%15.70%17.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.725.806.4120.00%17.50%17.24%15.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 21.73%4.60fair odd
EV -1.36%
Edge -0.299%
Kelly -0.383%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.54
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.73%21.74%21.74%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.504.174.204.5428.57%24.00%23.81%22.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sporting Gijón (Local): 62.49%; AD Ceuta FC (Visit): 15.78%; Draw: 21.73%. For AD Ceuta FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.34. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.41, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.17%.
Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.00%EV -4.39%E -2.87%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 6.41I 15.60%NM 15.04%EV +1.17%E +0.182%K +0.216%G +0.003% | 4.39I 22.78%NM 21.96%EV -4.61%E -1.05%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-03 14:10 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.25%EV -6.27%E -4.18%K -12.53%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.18%EV -1.36%E -0.217%K -0.258%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.56%EV -4.40%E -0.999%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-03 14:01 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.67%EV -8.14%E -5.54%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 14.86%EV -2.15%E -0.346%K -0.413%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.47%EV -10.92%E -2.66%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-03 14:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.46%EV -6.27%E -4.18%K -12.53%G +0.000% | 6.11I 16.37%NM 15.58%EV -3.57%E -0.584%K -0.698%G +0.000% | 4.54I 22.03%NM 20.97%EV -1.36%E -0.299%K -0.383%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-03 14:10 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.03%EV -7.52%E -5.08%K -15.66%G +0.000% | 6.05I 16.53%NM 15.42%EV -4.51%E -0.746%K -0.894%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.55%EV -5.92%E -1.37%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-03 14:10 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.16%EV -6.27%E -4.18%K -12.53%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.79%EV -5.30%E -0.884%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -2.22%E -0.494%K -0.636%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-03 08:59 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.39%EV -5.64%E -3.74%K -11.06%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV -5.30%E -0.884%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.91%EV -6.57%E -1.53%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-03 13:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.23%EV -5.64%E -3.74%K -11.06%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -5.30%E -0.884%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.11%EV -7.66%E -1.80%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-03 13:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.23%EV -5.64%E -3.74%K -11.06%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -5.30%E -0.884%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.11%EV -7.66%E -1.80%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-03 13:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.23%EV -5.64%E -3.74%K -11.06%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -5.30%E -0.884%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.11%EV -7.66%E -1.80%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-03 13:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.23%EV -5.64%E -3.74%K -11.06%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -5.30%E -0.884%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.11%EV -7.66%E -1.80%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-03 13:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.23%EV -5.64%E -3.74%K -11.06%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -5.30%E -0.884%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.11%EV -7.66%E -1.80%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-03 13:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.55%EV -6.27%E -4.18%K -12.53%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.64%EV -5.30%E -0.884%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -6.57%E -1.53%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-03 14:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -6.27%E -4.18%K -12.53%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -5.30%E -0.884%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -8.74%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-03 14:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -6.27%E -4.18%K -12.53%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -5.30%E -0.884%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -8.74%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-03 14:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.86%EV -7.52%E -5.08%K -15.66%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.51%EV -5.30%E -0.884%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.64%EV -6.57%E -1.53%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-03 14:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.70%EV -7.52%E -5.08%K -15.66%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -5.30%E -0.884%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.83%EV -7.66%E -1.80%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-03 14:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.54%EV -7.52%E -5.08%K -15.66%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.43%EV -5.30%E -0.884%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.04%EV -8.74%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-03 13:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -6.27%E -4.18%K -12.53%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -5.30%E -0.884%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -13.09%E -3.27%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-03 14:05 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.02%EV -9.39%E -6.48%K -20.87%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.23%EV -5.30%E -0.884%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.76%EV -8.74%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-03 13:55 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.18%EV -10.02%E -6.96%K -22.76%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.16%EV -5.30%E -0.884%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV -8.74%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-03 14:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.18%EV -10.02%E -6.96%K -22.76%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.16%EV -5.30%E -0.884%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV -8.74%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-03 13:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.21%EV -7.52%E -5.08%K -15.66%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.87%EV -8.46%E -1.46%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -8.74%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-03 13:31 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.21%EV -7.52%E -5.08%K -15.66%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.87%EV -8.46%E -1.46%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -8.74%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-03 13:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.21%EV -7.52%E -5.08%K -15.66%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.87%EV -8.46%E -1.46%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -8.74%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-03 13:30 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.21%EV -7.52%E -5.08%K -15.66%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.87%EV -8.46%E -1.46%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -8.74%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-03 13:25 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.18%EV -10.02%E -6.96%K -22.76%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.44%EV -8.46%E -1.46%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.38%EV -13.09%E -3.27%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-05-03 14:05 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.97%EV -6.27%E -4.18%K -12.53%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.16%EV -9.25%E -1.61%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%EV -7.66%E -1.80%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-03 14:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 61.80%EV -6.89%E -4.62%K -14.06%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.01%EV -9.25%E -1.61%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.19%EV -9.83%E -2.37%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-03 14:08 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 61.80%EV -6.89%E -4.62%K -14.06%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.01%EV -9.25%E -1.61%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.19%EV -9.83%E -2.37%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-03 14:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 61.79%EV -7.52%E -5.08%K -15.66%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.90%EV -9.25%E -1.61%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.30%EV -10.92%E -2.66%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-03 13:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 61.95%EV -8.14%E -5.54%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.84%EV -9.25%E -1.61%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.21%EV -10.92%E -2.66%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-03 13:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.35%EV -6.89%E -4.62%K -14.06%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.30%EV -10.04%E -1.76%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.36%EV -5.48%E -1.26%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-03 13:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.35%EV -6.89%E -4.62%K -14.06%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.30%EV -10.04%E -1.76%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.36%EV -5.48%E -1.26%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-03 13:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 62.01%EV -9.39%E -6.48%K -20.87%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.06%EV -11.62%E -2.07%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.93%EV -10.92%E -2.66%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-05-03 13:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 62.01%EV -9.39%E -6.48%K -20.87%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.06%EV -11.62%E -2.07%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.93%EV -10.92%E -2.66%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-05-03 13:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.16%EV -6.27%E -4.18%K -12.53%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.41%EV -13.19%E -2.40%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.44%EV -16.35%E -4.25%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-03 13:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 61.66%EV -10.02%E -6.96%K -22.76%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -13.19%E -2.40%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.20%EV -13.09%E -3.27%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-05-03 13:25 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 61.66%EV -10.02%E -6.96%K -22.76%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -13.19%E -2.40%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.20%EV -13.09%E -3.27%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-05-03 13:54 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 61.31%EV -10.02%E -6.96%K -22.76%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.05%EV -13.19%E -2.40%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.64%EV -15.26%E -3.91%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-05-03 13:25 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 61.99%EV -11.27%E -7.93%K -26.82%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.00%EV -13.19%E -2.40%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.01%EV -13.09%E -3.27%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-05-03 13:30 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 61.48%EV -7.52%E -5.08%K -15.66%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.85%EV -14.77%E -2.74%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.67%EV -8.74%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-03 13:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 61.97%EV -10.02%E -6.96%K -22.76%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.53%EV -14.77%E -2.74%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 21.50%EV -9.83%E -2.37%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-03 13:55 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 62.64%EV -13.14%E -9.45%K -33.69%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.12%EV -14.77%E -2.74%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.24%EV -10.92%E -2.66%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 14.9% | 2026-05-03 14:10 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.06%EV -8.14%E -5.54%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.21%EV -16.35%E -3.08%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.73%EV -4.40%E -0.999%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-03 13:55 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 61.62%EV -10.02%E -6.96%K -22.76%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 16.74%EV -16.35%E -3.08%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.64%EV -10.92%E -2.66%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-05-03 13:54 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.87%EV -6.27%E -4.18%K -12.53%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.39%EV -17.14%E -3.26%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -8.74%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-03 06:25 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -6.27%E -4.18%K -12.53%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -21.09%E -4.22%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -13.09%E -3.27%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-05-03 06:26 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -6.27%E -4.18%K -12.53%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -21.09%E -4.22%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -13.09%E -3.27%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-05-03 06:26 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -6.27%E -4.18%K -12.53%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -21.09%E -4.22%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -13.09%E -3.27%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-05-03 06:26 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -6.27%E -4.18%K -12.53%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -21.09%E -4.22%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -13.09%E -3.27%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-05-03 06:25 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 61.00%EV -10.02%E -6.96%K -22.76%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.57%EV -21.09%E -4.22%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.43%EV -10.92%E -2.66%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-05-03 13:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 59.52%EV -12.52%E -8.94%K -31.29%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 16.67%EV -21.09%E -4.22%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 23.81%EV -23.95%E -6.84%K -9.58%G +0.000% | 20.0% | 2026-05-03 11:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.55I 64.52%NM 63.90% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.53% | 1.0% | 2026-05-03 14:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.55I 64.52%NM 63.90% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.53% | 1.0% | 2026-05-03 14:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.55I 64.52%NM 63.90% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.53% | 1.0% | 2026-05-03 14:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.55I 64.52%NM 63.90% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.53% | 1.0% | 2026-05-03 14:10 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.80% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.67% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.53% | 2.1% | 2026-05-03 14:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.54I 64.94%NM 63.47% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.81% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.72% | 2.3% | 2026-05-03 14:05 |