La escuela de los momiosEspañol
Sporting Gijón v AD Ceuta FC
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Sporting Gijón (Local)
Predicción 62.49%1.60momio equitativo
EV -4.39%
Ventaja -2.87%
Kelly -8.29%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.53
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
59.52%62.36%62.55%63.46%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.391.481.481.5371.94%67.71%67.57%65.36%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
AD Ceuta FC (Visitante)
Predicción 15.78%6.34momio equitativo
EV +1.17%
Ventaja +0.182%
Kelly +0.216%
Crecimiento +0.003%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.41
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
14.86%15.91%15.70%17.91%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
5.005.725.806.4120.00%17.50%17.24%15.60%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Empate
Predicción 21.73%4.60momio equitativo
EV -1.36%
Ventaja -0.299%
Kelly -0.383%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.54
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.73%21.74%21.74%23.81%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.504.174.204.5428.57%24.00%23.81%22.03%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (53 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.00%EV -4.39%E -2.87%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 6.41I 15.60%NM 15.04%EV +1.17%E +0.182%K +0.216%G +0.003% | 4.39I 22.78%NM 21.96%EV -4.61%E -1.05%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-03 14:10 |
| Coolbet | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.25%EV -6.27%E -4.18%K -12.53%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.18%EV -1.36%E -0.217%K -0.258%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.56%EV -4.40%E -0.999%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-03 14:01 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.67%EV -8.14%E -5.54%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 14.86%EV -2.15%E -0.346%K -0.413%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.47%EV -10.92%E -2.66%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-03 14:00 |
| 1xBet | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.46%EV -6.27%E -4.18%K -12.53%G +0.000% | 6.11I 16.37%NM 15.58%EV -3.57%E -0.584%K -0.698%G +0.000% | 4.54I 22.03%NM 20.97%EV -1.36%E -0.299%K -0.383%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-03 14:10 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.03%EV -7.52%E -5.08%K -15.66%G +0.000% | 6.05I 16.53%NM 15.42%EV -4.51%E -0.746%K -0.894%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.55%EV -5.92%E -1.37%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-03 14:10 |
| Fanatics | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.16%EV -6.27%E -4.18%K -12.53%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.79%EV -5.30%E -0.884%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -2.22%E -0.494%K -0.636%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-03 08:59 |
| DraftKings | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.39%EV -5.64%E -3.74%K -11.06%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV -5.30%E -0.884%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.91%EV -6.57%E -1.53%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-03 13:55 |
| Unibet | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.23%EV -5.64%E -3.74%K -11.06%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -5.30%E -0.884%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.11%EV -7.66%E -1.80%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-03 13:30 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.23%EV -5.64%E -3.74%K -11.06%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -5.30%E -0.884%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.11%EV -7.66%E -1.80%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-03 13:25 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.23%EV -5.64%E -3.74%K -11.06%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -5.30%E -0.884%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.11%EV -7.66%E -1.80%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-03 13:30 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.23%EV -5.64%E -3.74%K -11.06%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -5.30%E -0.884%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.11%EV -7.66%E -1.80%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-03 13:30 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.23%EV -5.64%E -3.74%K -11.06%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -5.30%E -0.884%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.11%EV -7.66%E -1.80%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-03 13:30 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.55%EV -6.27%E -4.18%K -12.53%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.64%EV -5.30%E -0.884%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -6.57%E -1.53%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-03 14:00 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -6.27%E -4.18%K -12.53%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -5.30%E -0.884%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -8.74%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-03 14:00 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -6.27%E -4.18%K -12.53%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -5.30%E -0.884%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -8.74%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-03 14:00 |
| FanDuel | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.86%EV -7.52%E -5.08%K -15.66%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.51%EV -5.30%E -0.884%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.64%EV -6.57%E -1.53%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-03 14:00 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.70%EV -7.52%E -5.08%K -15.66%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -5.30%E -0.884%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.83%EV -7.66%E -1.80%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-03 14:00 |
| Betway | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.54%EV -7.52%E -5.08%K -15.66%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.43%EV -5.30%E -0.884%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.04%EV -8.74%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-03 13:55 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -6.27%E -4.18%K -12.53%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -5.30%E -0.884%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -13.09%E -3.27%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-03 14:05 |
| Bet Victor | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.02%EV -9.39%E -6.48%K -20.87%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.23%EV -5.30%E -0.884%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.76%EV -8.74%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-03 13:55 |
| betfred_uk | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.18%EV -10.02%E -6.96%K -22.76%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.16%EV -5.30%E -0.884%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV -8.74%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-03 14:00 |
| SportsBet | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.18%EV -10.02%E -6.96%K -22.76%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.16%EV -5.30%E -0.884%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV -8.74%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-03 13:55 |
| Casumo | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.21%EV -7.52%E -5.08%K -15.66%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.87%EV -8.46%E -1.46%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -8.74%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-03 13:31 |
| TABtouch | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.21%EV -7.52%E -5.08%K -15.66%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.87%EV -8.46%E -1.46%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -8.74%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-03 13:25 |
| Grosvenor | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.21%EV -7.52%E -5.08%K -15.66%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.87%EV -8.46%E -1.46%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -8.74%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-03 13:30 |
| betPARX | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.21%EV -7.52%E -5.08%K -15.66%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.87%EV -8.46%E -1.46%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -8.74%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-03 13:25 |
| William Hill | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.18%EV -10.02%E -6.96%K -22.76%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.44%EV -8.46%E -1.46%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.38%EV -13.09%E -3.27%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-05-03 14:05 |
| theScore Bet | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.97%EV -6.27%E -4.18%K -12.53%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.16%EV -9.25%E -1.61%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%EV -7.66%E -1.80%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-03 14:00 |
| Bovada | 1.49I 67.11%NM 61.80%EV -6.89%E -4.62%K -14.06%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.01%EV -9.25%E -1.61%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.19%EV -9.83%E -2.37%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-03 14:08 |
| BetAnything | 1.49I 67.11%NM 61.80%EV -6.89%E -4.62%K -14.06%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.01%EV -9.25%E -1.61%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.19%EV -9.83%E -2.37%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-03 14:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.48I 67.57%NM 61.79%EV -7.52%E -5.08%K -15.66%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.90%EV -9.25%E -1.61%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.30%EV -10.92%E -2.66%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-03 13:25 |
| LeoVegas | 1.47I 68.03%NM 61.95%EV -8.14%E -5.54%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.84%EV -9.25%E -1.61%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.21%EV -10.92%E -2.66%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-03 13:25 |
| Betsson | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.35%EV -6.89%E -4.62%K -14.06%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.30%EV -10.04%E -1.76%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.36%EV -5.48%E -1.26%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-03 13:55 |
| NordicBet | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.35%EV -6.89%E -4.62%K -14.06%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.30%EV -10.04%E -1.76%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.36%EV -5.48%E -1.26%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-03 13:55 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.45I 68.97%NM 62.01%EV -9.39%E -6.48%K -20.87%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.06%EV -11.62%E -2.07%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.93%EV -10.92%E -2.66%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-05-03 13:25 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.45I 68.97%NM 62.01%EV -9.39%E -6.48%K -20.87%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.06%EV -11.62%E -2.07%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.93%EV -10.92%E -2.66%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-05-03 13:25 |
| PlayUp | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.16%EV -6.27%E -4.18%K -12.53%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.41%EV -13.19%E -2.40%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.44%EV -16.35%E -4.25%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-03 13:55 |
| Paddy Power | 1.44I 69.44%NM 61.66%EV -10.02%E -6.96%K -22.76%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -13.19%E -2.40%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.20%EV -13.09%E -3.27%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-05-03 13:25 |
| BoyleSports | 1.44I 69.44%NM 61.66%EV -10.02%E -6.96%K -22.76%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -13.19%E -2.40%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.20%EV -13.09%E -3.27%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-05-03 13:54 |
| Sky Bet | 1.44I 69.44%NM 61.31%EV -10.02%E -6.96%K -22.76%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.05%EV -13.19%E -2.40%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.64%EV -15.26%E -3.91%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-05-03 13:25 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.42I 70.42%NM 61.99%EV -11.27%E -7.93%K -26.82%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.00%EV -13.19%E -2.40%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.01%EV -13.09%E -3.27%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-05-03 13:30 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.48I 67.57%NM 61.48%EV -7.52%E -5.08%K -15.66%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.85%EV -14.77%E -2.74%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.67%EV -8.74%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-03 13:55 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.44I 69.44%NM 61.97%EV -10.02%E -6.96%K -22.76%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.53%EV -14.77%E -2.74%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 21.50%EV -9.83%E -2.37%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-03 13:55 |
| NetBet (FR) | 1.39I 71.94%NM 62.64%EV -13.14%E -9.45%K -33.69%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.12%EV -14.77%E -2.74%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.24%EV -10.92%E -2.66%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 14.9% | 2026-05-03 14:10 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.06%EV -8.14%E -5.54%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.21%EV -16.35%E -3.08%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.73%EV -4.40%E -0.999%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-03 13:55 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.44I 69.44%NM 61.62%EV -10.02%E -6.96%K -22.76%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 16.74%EV -16.35%E -3.08%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.64%EV -10.92%E -2.66%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-05-03 13:54 |
| BetMGM | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.87%EV -6.27%E -4.18%K -12.53%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.39%EV -17.14%E -3.26%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -8.74%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-03 06:25 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -6.27%E -4.18%K -12.53%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -21.09%E -4.22%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -13.09%E -3.27%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-05-03 06:26 |
| Neds | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -6.27%E -4.18%K -12.53%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -21.09%E -4.22%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -13.09%E -3.27%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-05-03 06:26 |
| Coral | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -6.27%E -4.18%K -12.53%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -21.09%E -4.22%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -13.09%E -3.27%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-05-03 06:26 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -6.27%E -4.18%K -12.53%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -21.09%E -4.22%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -13.09%E -3.27%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-05-03 06:25 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.44I 69.44%NM 61.00%EV -10.02%E -6.96%K -22.76%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.57%EV -21.09%E -4.22%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.43%EV -10.92%E -2.66%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-05-03 13:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.40I 71.43%NM 59.52%EV -12.52%E -8.94%K -31.29%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 16.67%EV -21.09%E -4.22%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 23.81%EV -23.95%E -6.84%K -9.58%G +0.000% | 20.0% | 2026-05-03 11:40 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (6)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 1.55I 64.52%NM 63.90% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.53% | 1.0% | 2026-05-03 14:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.55I 64.52%NM 63.90% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.53% | 1.0% | 2026-05-03 14:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.55I 64.52%NM 63.90% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.53% | 1.0% | 2026-05-03 14:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.55I 64.52%NM 63.90% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.53% | 1.0% | 2026-05-03 14:10 |
| Kalshi | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.80% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.67% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.53% | 2.1% | 2026-05-03 14:00 |
| Smarkets | 1.54I 64.94%NM 63.47% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.81% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.72% | 2.3% | 2026-05-03 14:05 |