Idioma:Español
Mallorca v Real Valladolid CF
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Mallorca (Local)
Predicción 55.50%1.80momio equitativo
EV -2.87%
Ventaja -1.64%
Kelly -3.83%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.75
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
53.47%55.43%55.63%57.39%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.561.651.651.7564.10%60.47%60.61%57.14%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Real Valladolid CF (Visitante)
Predicción 18.80%5.32momio equitativo
EV +3.38%
Ventaja +0.614%
Kelly +0.750%
Crecimiento +0.025%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.50
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
17.18%18.84%18.76%20.49%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.404.935.005.5022.73%20.28%20.00%18.18%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 25.70%3.89momio equitativo
EV -3.61%
Ventaja -0.964%
Kelly -1.31%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.75
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.95%25.74%25.61%26.85%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.403.573.553.7529.41%28.04%28.17%26.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Mallorca (Local): 55.50%; Real Valladolid CF (Visitante): 18.80%; Empate: 25.70%. Para Real Valladolid CF (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 5.32. 7 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 5.50, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +3.38%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (47 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.77%EV -6.20%E -3.67%K -8.99%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.44%EV +3.38%E +0.614%K +0.750%G +0.025% | 3.72I 26.88%NM 25.79%EV -4.38%E -1.18%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-15 19:10 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.58%EV -7.31%E -4.38%K -10.92%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.18%EV +3.38%E +0.614%K +0.750%G +0.025% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.25%EV -7.47%E -2.07%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-15 19:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.39%EV -9.53%E -5.85%K -15.13%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.32%EV +1.50%E +0.277%K +0.340%G +0.005% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -4.90%E -1.32%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-15 19:09 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.39%EV -9.53%E -5.85%K -15.13%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.32%EV +1.50%E +0.277%K +0.340%G +0.005% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -4.90%E -1.32%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-15 19:09 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.39%EV -9.53%E -5.85%K -15.13%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.32%EV +1.50%E +0.277%K +0.340%G +0.005% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -4.90%E -1.32%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-15 19:09 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.39%EV -9.53%E -5.85%K -15.13%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.32%EV +1.50%E +0.277%K +0.340%G +0.005% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -4.90%E -1.32%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-15 19:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.39%EV -9.53%E -5.85%K -15.13%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.32%EV +1.50%E +0.277%K +0.340%G +0.005% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -4.90%E -1.32%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-15 19:10 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.25%EV -4.54%E -2.64%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 5.31I 18.83%NM 17.90%EV -0.194%E -0.037%K -0.045%G +0.000% | 3.54I 28.25%NM 26.85%EV -9.01%E -2.55%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-15 19:24 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.02%EV -7.31%E -4.38%K -10.92%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.99%EV -2.26%E -0.435%K -0.539%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -7.47%E -2.07%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-15 19:13 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.52%EV -8.42%E -5.10%K -12.96%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.93%EV -2.26%E -0.435%K -0.539%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.55%EV -6.18%E -1.69%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-15 19:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.26%EV -8.98%E -5.47%K -14.03%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.74%EV -2.26%E -0.435%K -0.539%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.99%EV -8.75%E -2.47%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-15 19:09 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.26%EV -8.98%E -5.47%K -14.03%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.74%EV -2.26%E -0.435%K -0.539%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.99%EV -8.75%E -2.47%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-15 19:09 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.18%EV -5.65%E -3.32%K -8.07%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.39%EV -4.14%E -0.812%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.42%EV -8.75%E -2.47%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-15 19:05 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.18%EV -5.65%E -3.32%K -8.07%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.39%EV -4.14%E -0.812%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.42%EV -8.75%E -2.47%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-15 19:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 55.86%EV -8.98%E -5.47%K -14.03%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.96%EV -4.14%E -0.812%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -10.04%E -2.87%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-15 19:14 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.68%EV -11.20%E -7.00%K -18.66%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.78%EV -4.14%E -0.812%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.54%EV -8.75%E -2.47%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-15 19:08 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.68%EV -11.20%E -7.00%K -18.66%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.78%EV -4.14%E -0.812%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.54%EV -8.75%E -2.47%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-15 19:09 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.68%EV -11.20%E -7.00%K -18.66%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.78%EV -4.14%E -0.812%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.54%EV -8.75%E -2.47%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-15 19:09 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.68%EV -11.20%E -7.00%K -18.66%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.78%EV -4.14%E -0.812%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.54%EV -8.75%E -2.47%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-15 19:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.72%EV -6.20%E -3.67%K -8.99%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -6.02%E -1.20%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.45%EV -4.90%E -1.32%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-15 19:04 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.62%EV -7.31%E -4.38%K -10.92%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.58%EV -6.02%E -1.20%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -7.47%E -2.07%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-15 19:04 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.96%EV -10.09%E -6.23%K -16.27%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.13%EV -6.02%E -1.20%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.90%EV -10.04%E -2.87%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-15 19:14 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 56.89%EV -13.42%E -8.60%K -23.96%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.75%EV -6.02%E -1.20%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.36%EV -10.04%E -2.87%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-08-15 19:09 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 56.89%EV -13.42%E -8.60%K -23.96%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.75%EV -6.02%E -1.20%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.36%EV -10.04%E -2.87%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-08-15 19:09 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 56.89%EV -13.42%E -8.60%K -23.96%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.75%EV -6.02%E -1.20%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.36%EV -10.04%E -2.87%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-08-15 19:09 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.71%EV -8.42%E -5.10%K -12.96%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.76%EV -7.90%E -1.61%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -7.47%E -2.07%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-15 18:49 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.10%EV -8.42%E -5.10%K -12.96%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.55%EV -7.90%E -1.61%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.35%EV -11.32%E -3.28%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-15 17:24 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.10%EV -8.42%E -5.10%K -12.96%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.55%EV -7.90%E -1.61%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.35%EV -11.32%E -3.28%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-15 17:24 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.49%EV -2.87%E -1.64%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.08%EV -10.72%E -2.26%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.43%EV -3.61%E -0.964%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-15 18:40 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.38%EV -8.42%E -5.10%K -12.96%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.24%EV -10.72%E -2.26%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.38%EV -7.47%E -2.07%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-08-15 19:09 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.38%EV -8.42%E -5.10%K -12.96%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.24%EV -10.72%E -2.26%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.38%EV -7.47%E -2.07%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-08-15 19:09 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.14%EV -11.20%E -7.00%K -18.66%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.91%EV -10.72%E -2.26%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -7.47%E -2.07%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-08-15 18:44 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.02%EV -10.09%E -6.23%K -16.27%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.76%EV -10.72%E -2.26%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.22%EV -12.61%E -3.71%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-08-15 19:20 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.02%EV -10.09%E -6.23%K -16.27%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.76%EV -10.72%E -2.26%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.22%EV -12.61%E -3.71%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-08-15 19:14 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.62%EV -4.54%E -2.64%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.99%EV -11.66%E -2.48%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -4.90%E -1.32%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-15 18:39 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 54.92%EV -7.87%E -4.74%K -11.92%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.40%EV -11.66%E -2.48%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.68%EV -8.75%E -2.47%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-15 17:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.47%EV -3.98%E -2.30%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.11%EV -13.54%E -2.94%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -10.04%E -2.87%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-15 19:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 54.05%EV -6.20%E -3.67%K -8.99%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.86%EV -13.54%E -2.94%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.10%EV -10.04%E -2.87%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-15 18:34 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 53.78%EV -6.76%E -4.02%K -9.94%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.64%EV -13.54%E -2.94%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.57%EV -12.61%E -3.71%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-15 19:14 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -5.09%E -2.98%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -15.42%E -3.43%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -7.47%E -2.07%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-15 18:40 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -5.65%E -3.32%K -8.07%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -15.42%E -3.43%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -7.47%E -2.07%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-15 18:39 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 54.20%EV -6.20%E -3.67%K -8.99%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.36%EV -15.42%E -3.43%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.44%EV -7.47%E -2.07%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-15 18:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.66%EV -5.65%E -3.32%K -8.07%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.27%EV -15.42%E -3.43%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.06%EV -10.04%E -2.87%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-15 19:04 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.86%EV -7.31%E -4.38%K -10.92%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.44%EV -17.30%E -3.93%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.70%EV -10.04%E -2.87%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-08-15 18:34 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.86%EV -7.31%E -4.38%K -10.92%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.44%EV -17.30%E -3.93%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.70%EV -10.04%E -2.87%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-08-15 18:34 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.86%EV -7.31%E -4.38%K -10.92%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.44%EV -17.30%E -3.93%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.70%EV -10.04%E -2.87%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-08-15 18:35 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.86%EV -7.31%E -4.38%K -10.92%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.44%EV -17.30%E -3.93%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.70%EV -10.04%E -2.87%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-08-15 18:35 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (6)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.96% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.49% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.56% | 0.3% | 2026-08-15 19:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.96% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.49% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.56% | 0.3% | 2026-08-15 19:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.74I 57.47%NM 57.10% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.43% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.47% | 0.7% | 2026-08-15 19:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.74I 57.47%NM 57.10% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.43% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.47% | 0.7% | 2026-08-15 19:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.91% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.37% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.72% | 1.0% | 2026-08-15 19:15 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 56.94% | 5.56I 17.99%NM 17.62% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.44% | 2.1% | 2026-08-15 19:25 |