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Málaga v Las Palmas
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Málaga (Local)
Predicción 44.77%2.23momio equitativo
EV -1.51%
Ventaja -0.685%
Kelly -1.26%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.20
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
43.00%44.60%44.87%45.73%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.912.092.102.2052.36%47.85%47.62%45.45%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Las Palmas (Visitante)
Predicción 26.60%3.76momio equitativo
EV +0.822%
Ventaja +0.217%
Kelly +0.295%
Crecimiento +0.002%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.79
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.40%26.79%26.51%28.94%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.053.373.303.7932.79%29.70%30.30%26.39%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 28.63%3.49momio equitativo
EV -2.09%
Ventaja -0.612%
Kelly -0.864%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.42
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.88%28.60%28.62%31.39%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.633.233.253.4238.02%30.98%30.77%29.24%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Málaga (Local): 44.77%; Las Palmas (Visitante): 26.60%; Empate: 28.63%. Para Las Palmas (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.76. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.79, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +0.822%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (45 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.13I 46.95%NM 45.42%EV -4.64%E -2.18%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.79I 26.39%NM 25.53%EV +0.822%E +0.217%K +0.295%G +0.002% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 29.05%EV -4.67%E -1.40%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-06-10 17:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.73%EV -5.09%E -2.40%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 3.74I 26.74%NM 25.92%EV -0.508%E -0.136%K -0.186%G +0.000% | 3.42I 29.24%NM 28.35%EV -2.09%E -0.612%K -0.864%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-06-10 17:20 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.69%EV -5.98%E -2.85%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.93%EV -1.57%E -0.425%K -0.582%G +0.000% | 3.38I 29.59%NM 28.38%EV -3.24%E -0.958%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-10 16:49 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.05%EV -5.98%E -2.85%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -4.23%E -1.18%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -5.53%E -1.67%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-06-10 16:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.25%EV -8.22%E -4.01%K -7.83%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -4.23%E -1.18%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -8.39%E -2.62%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-06-10 16:49 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.16%EV -8.67%E -4.25%K -8.34%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.59%EV -4.23%E -1.18%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.25%EV -9.82%E -3.12%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-06-10 17:18 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -8.22%E -4.01%K -7.83%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.26%EV -5.56%E -1.57%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.25%EV -5.53%E -1.67%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-06-10 16:49 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -8.22%E -4.01%K -7.83%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.26%EV -5.56%E -1.57%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.25%EV -5.53%E -1.67%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-06-10 16:49 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.11I 47.39%NM 44.40%EV -5.54%E -2.62%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -6.89%E -1.97%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.83%EV -6.96%E -2.14%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-06-10 17:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.11I 47.39%NM 44.40%EV -5.54%E -2.62%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -6.89%E -1.97%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.83%EV -6.96%E -2.14%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-06-10 17:20 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.11I 47.39%NM 44.40%EV -5.54%E -2.62%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -6.89%E -1.97%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.83%EV -6.96%E -2.14%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-06-10 17:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -8.22%E -4.01%K -7.83%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -6.89%E -1.97%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -11.25%E -3.63%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-06-10 16:50 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -8.22%E -4.01%K -7.83%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -6.89%E -1.97%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -11.25%E -3.63%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-06-10 16:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.53%EV -10.46%E -5.23%K -10.46%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -6.89%E -1.97%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -8.39%E -2.62%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-06-10 16:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -3.74%E -1.74%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -9.55%E -2.81%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -6.96%E -2.14%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-06-10 10:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.17%EV -8.22%E -4.01%K -7.83%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -9.55%E -2.81%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -11.25%E -3.63%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-06-10 11:19 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.17%EV -8.22%E -4.01%K -7.83%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -9.55%E -2.81%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -11.25%E -3.63%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-06-10 16:49 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.18%EV -10.46%E -5.23%K -10.46%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -9.55%E -2.81%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -8.39%E -2.62%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-06-10 16:49 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%EV -10.46%E -5.23%K -10.46%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -9.55%E -2.81%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -11.25%E -3.63%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-06-10 16:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%EV -10.46%E -5.23%K -10.46%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -9.55%E -2.81%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -11.25%E -3.63%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-06-10 16:10 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.23%EV -12.70%E -6.51%K -13.37%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.33%EV -10.88%E -3.25%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.45%EV -11.25%E -3.63%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-06-10 16:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.22%EV -1.51%E -0.685%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.81%EV -12.21%E -3.70%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -2.66%E -0.784%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-06-10 00:09 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.22%EV -1.51%E -0.685%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.81%EV -12.21%E -3.70%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -2.66%E -0.784%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-06-10 16:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.22%EV -1.51%E -0.685%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.81%EV -12.21%E -3.70%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -2.66%E -0.784%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-06-10 16:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -3.74%E -1.74%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -12.21%E -3.70%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -5.53%E -1.67%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-06-10 16:50 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -3.74%E -1.74%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -12.21%E -3.70%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -5.53%E -1.67%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-06-10 16:49 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.81%EV -8.22%E -4.01%K -7.83%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.22%EV -12.21%E -3.70%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.97%EV -11.25%E -3.63%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-06-10 16:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.81%EV -8.22%E -4.01%K -7.83%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.22%EV -12.21%E -3.70%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.97%EV -11.25%E -3.63%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-06-10 16:49 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.81%EV -8.22%E -4.01%K -7.83%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.22%EV -12.21%E -3.70%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.97%EV -11.25%E -3.63%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-06-10 16:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.81%EV -8.22%E -4.01%K -7.83%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.22%EV -12.21%E -3.70%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.97%EV -11.25%E -3.63%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-06-10 16:49 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%EV -2.40%E -1.10%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.89%EV -13.54%E -4.17%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -4.10%E -1.22%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-06-10 16:09 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%EV -2.40%E -1.10%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.89%EV -13.54%E -4.17%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -4.10%E -1.22%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-06-10 16:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%EV -2.40%E -1.10%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.89%EV -13.54%E -4.17%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -4.10%E -1.22%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-06-10 16:09 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.81%EV -5.98%E -2.85%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -13.54%E -4.17%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -5.53%E -1.67%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-06-10 16:50 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -5.98%E -2.85%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -13.54%E -4.17%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -6.96%E -2.14%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-06-10 16:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 43.22%EV -14.49%E -7.59%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 25.40%EV -13.54%E -4.17%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 31.39%EV -24.71%E -9.39%K -15.16%G +0.000% | 21.1% | 2026-06-10 16:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.15%EV -4.19%E -1.96%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -14.87%E -4.65%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -5.53%E -1.67%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-10 16:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.15%EV -4.19%E -1.96%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -14.87%E -4.65%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -5.53%E -1.67%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-10 16:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.15%EV -4.19%E -1.96%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -14.87%E -4.65%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -5.53%E -1.67%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-10 16:09 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.15%EV -4.19%E -1.96%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -14.87%E -4.65%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -5.53%E -1.67%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-10 16:09 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.00%EV -5.09%E -2.40%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.94%EV -16.20%E -5.14%K -7.54%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -6.96%E -2.14%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-06-10 16:09 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -5.98%E -2.85%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.82%EV -16.20%E -5.14%K -7.54%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -6.96%E -2.14%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-06-10 16:09 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -5.98%E -2.85%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.82%EV -16.20%E -5.14%K -7.54%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -6.96%E -2.14%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-06-10 16:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -5.98%E -2.85%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.82%EV -16.20%E -5.14%K -7.54%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -6.96%E -2.14%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-06-10 16:10 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 43.17%EV -8.67%E -4.25%K -8.34%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.87%EV -18.86%E -6.18%K -9.20%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.96%EV -9.82%E -3.12%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-06-10 16:10 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (6)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.16I 46.30%NM 46.06% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.51% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.43% | 0.5% | 2026-06-10 17:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.16I 46.30%NM 45.91% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.76% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.33% | 0.8% | 2026-06-10 16:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.16I 46.30%NM 45.91% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.76% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.33% | 0.8% | 2026-06-10 16:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.16I 46.30%NM 45.91% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.76% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.33% | 0.8% | 2026-06-10 16:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.16I 46.30%NM 45.57% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.90% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.53% | 1.6% | 2026-06-10 16:50 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.13I 46.95%NM 46.07% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.49% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.44% | 1.9% | 2026-06-10 16:50 |