Language:English
AD Ceuta FC v CD Castellón
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
AD Ceuta FC (Local)
Prediction 16.78%5.96fair odd
EV +5.35%
Edge +0.852%
Kelly +1.01%
Growth +0.054%
assuming max odds 6.28
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.37%16.75%16.82%18.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.325.256.2822.22%18.79%19.05%15.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
CD Castellón (Visit)
Prediction 63.61%1.57fair odd
EV -0.761%
Edge -0.488%
Kelly -1.36%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.56
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.82%63.61%63.58%65.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.461.451.5673.53%68.35%68.97%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 19.61%5.10fair odd
EV -0.187%
Edge -0.037%
Kelly -0.046%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 5.09
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.63%19.64%19.60%22.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.604.534.505.0927.78%22.09%22.22%19.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: AD Ceuta FC (Local): 16.78%; CD Castellón (Visit): 63.61%; Draw: 19.61%. For AD Ceuta FC (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.96. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.28, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.35%.
Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 6.28I 15.92%NM 15.37%EV +5.35%E +0.852%K +1.01%G +0.054% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.21%EV -5.85%E -3.95%K -12.19%G +0.000% | 4.97I 20.12%NM 19.42%EV -2.54%E -0.511%K -0.640%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-05-09 11:59 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.52%EV +0.654%E +0.109%K +0.131%G +0.001% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.67%EV -8.39%E -5.83%K -19.08%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.81%EV -7.83%E -1.67%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-09 11:59 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.52%EV +0.654%E +0.109%K +0.131%G +0.001% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.67%EV -8.39%E -5.83%K -19.08%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.81%EV -7.83%E -1.67%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-09 11:59 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -3.54%E -0.616%K -0.745%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.43%EV -4.58%E -3.05%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -6.85%E -1.44%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 11:58 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.44%EV -3.54%E -0.616%K -0.745%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.87%EV -5.85%E -3.95%K -12.19%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.69%EV -5.87%E -1.22%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-09 11:59 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -3.54%E -0.616%K -0.745%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.33%EV -5.85%E -3.95%K -12.19%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%EV -9.80%E -2.13%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-09 11:59 |
| Bovada🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.05%EV -3.54%E -0.616%K -0.745%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.10%EV -8.39%E -5.83%K -19.08%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 19.85%EV -8.82%E -1.90%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-09 11:59 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.02%EV -3.54%E -0.616%K -0.745%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.96%EV -8.39%E -5.83%K -19.08%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.02%EV -9.80%E -2.13%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-09 11:59 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.28%EV -4.38%E -0.768%K -0.932%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.98%EV -7.76%E -5.35%K -17.24%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.74%EV -7.83%E -1.67%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-09 11:59 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 5.65I 17.70%NM 16.50%EV -5.22%E -0.924%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.28%EV -7.76%E -5.35%K -17.24%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.22%EV -4.89%E -1.01%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-09 11:59 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.19%EV -7.73%E -1.41%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.89%EV -5.85%E -3.95%K -12.19%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.91%EV -1.95%E -0.390%K -0.488%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-09 11:59 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -7.73%E -1.41%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.42%EV -6.49%E -4.41%K -13.80%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -6.85%E -1.44%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-09 11:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.87%EV -7.73%E -1.41%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.00%EV -7.76%E -5.35%K -17.24%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.13%EV -4.89%E -1.01%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-09 11:59 |
| Betsson🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.87%EV -7.73%E -1.41%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.00%EV -7.76%E -5.35%K -17.24%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.13%EV -4.89%E -1.01%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-09 11:59 |
| Betway🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.84%EV -7.73%E -1.41%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.58%EV -5.85%E -3.95%K -12.19%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.58%EV -11.76%E -2.61%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-09 11:59 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.84%EV -7.73%E -1.41%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.58%EV -5.85%E -3.95%K -12.19%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.58%EV -11.76%E -2.61%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-09 11:59 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.70%EV -7.73%E -1.41%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.34%EV -7.76%E -5.35%K -17.24%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.96%EV -9.80%E -2.13%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-09 11:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -7.73%E -1.41%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.50%EV -8.39%E -5.83%K -19.08%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.88%EV -9.80%E -2.13%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-09 11:59 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -7.73%E -1.41%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.22%EV -8.39%E -5.83%K -19.08%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.23%EV -11.76%E -2.61%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-09 11:58 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -7.73%E -1.41%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.22%EV -8.39%E -5.83%K -19.08%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.23%EV -11.76%E -2.61%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-09 11:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -7.73%E -1.41%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.22%EV -8.39%E -5.83%K -19.08%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.23%EV -11.76%E -2.61%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-09 11:58 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -7.73%E -1.41%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.22%EV -8.39%E -5.83%K -19.08%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.23%EV -11.76%E -2.61%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-09 11:59 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.51%EV -7.73%E -1.41%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 62.62%EV -7.76%E -5.35%K -17.24%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.87%EV -14.70%E -3.38%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-09 11:59 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.88%EV -9.41%E -1.74%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 63.73%EV -9.03%E -6.32%K -21.00%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.39%EV -7.83%E -1.67%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-09 12:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 5.33I 18.76%NM 17.86%EV -10.59%E -1.99%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.45%EV -4.58%E -3.05%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 5.09I 19.65%NM 18.70%EV -0.187%E -0.037%K -0.046%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 11:59 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.36%EV -11.93%E -2.27%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 62.84%EV -7.76%E -5.35%K -17.24%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.81%EV -9.80%E -2.13%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-09 11:59 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 16.97%EV -11.93%E -2.27%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 63.65%EV -10.94%E -7.81%K -27.35%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.37%EV -9.80%E -2.13%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-05-09 11:58 |
| Unibet🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.13%EV -12.77%E -2.46%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.44%EV -0.761%E -0.488%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -13.72%E -3.12%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-09 11:59 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.13%EV -12.77%E -2.46%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.44%EV -0.761%E -0.488%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -13.72%E -3.12%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-09 11:59 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.13%EV -12.77%E -2.46%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.44%EV -0.761%E -0.488%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -13.72%E -3.12%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-09 11:59 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.13%EV -12.77%E -2.46%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.44%EV -0.761%E -0.488%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -13.72%E -3.12%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-09 11:59 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.13%EV -12.77%E -2.46%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.44%EV -0.761%E -0.488%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -13.72%E -3.12%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-09 11:59 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.55%EV -12.77%E -2.46%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 63.82%EV -9.03%E -6.32%K -21.00%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.63%EV -3.91%E -0.799%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-09 11:59 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 16.80%EV -12.77%E -2.46%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 64.22%EV -13.48%E -9.91%K -37.46%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 18.99%EV -9.80%E -2.13%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 14.5% | 2026-05-09 11:59 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.97%EV -14.44%E -2.83%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 60.71%EV -3.94%E -2.61%K -7.73%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.32%EV -15.68%E -3.65%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-09 11:59 |
| Casumo🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.97%EV -14.44%E -2.83%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 60.71%EV -3.94%E -2.61%K -7.73%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.32%EV -15.68%E -3.65%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-09 11:59 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.97%EV -14.44%E -2.83%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 60.71%EV -3.94%E -2.61%K -7.73%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.32%EV -15.68%E -3.65%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-09 11:59 |
| betPARX🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.97%EV -14.44%E -2.83%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 60.71%EV -3.94%E -2.61%K -7.73%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.32%EV -15.68%E -3.65%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-09 11:59 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.22%EV -16.12%E -3.22%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 60.34%EV -3.94%E -2.61%K -7.73%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.44%EV -16.66%E -3.92%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-09 11:59 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.15%EV -16.12%E -3.22%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.50%EV -4.58%E -3.05%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.35%EV -16.66%E -3.92%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-09 11:59 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.03%EV -16.12%E -3.22%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 60.50%EV -5.21%E -3.50%K -10.64%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.46%EV -17.64%E -4.20%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-09 11:59 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.03%EV -16.12%E -3.22%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 60.50%EV -5.21%E -3.50%K -10.64%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.46%EV -17.64%E -4.20%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-09 11:59 |
| Neds🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -16.12%E -3.22%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.19%EV -8.39%E -5.83%K -19.08%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -11.76%E -2.61%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-05-09 11:59 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -16.12%E -3.22%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.19%EV -8.39%E -5.83%K -19.08%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -11.76%E -2.61%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-05-09 11:59 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -16.12%E -3.22%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.19%EV -8.39%E -5.83%K -19.08%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -11.76%E -2.61%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-05-09 11:59 |
| Coral🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -16.12%E -3.22%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.19%EV -8.39%E -5.83%K -19.08%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -11.76%E -2.61%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-05-09 11:59 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.77%EV -16.12%E -3.22%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 61.71%EV -8.39%E -5.83%K -19.08%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.52%EV -15.09%E -3.49%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-05-09 11:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.60%EV -16.12%E -3.22%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 62.85%EV -10.94%E -7.81%K -27.35%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.55%EV -11.76%E -2.61%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-05-09 11:59 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.60%EV -16.12%E -3.22%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 62.85%EV -10.94%E -7.81%K -27.35%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.55%EV -11.76%E -2.61%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-05-09 11:59 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.36%EV -16.12%E -3.22%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 62.91%EV -12.21%E -8.85%K -32.14%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 19.73%EV -13.72%E -3.12%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 15.2% | 2026-05-09 11:59 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 17.97%EV -17.80%E -3.63%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 62.89%EV -10.94%E -7.81%K -27.35%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.14%EV -9.80%E -2.13%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-05-09 11:59 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.24%EV -19.48%E -4.06%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 60.40%EV -7.76%E -5.35%K -17.24%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.36%EV -19.60%E -4.78%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-05-09 11:59 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 18.30%EV -24.51%E -5.45%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 58.82%EV -10.94%E -7.81%K -27.35%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 22.88%EV -29.41%E -8.17%K -11.31%G +0.000% | 21.4% | 2026-05-09 11:59 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.87% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 65.27% | 5.26I 19.01%NM 18.86% | 0.8% | 2026-05-09 11:59 |
| Smarkets◎ | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.95% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 64.65% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.40% | 1.1% | 2026-05-09 11:59 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.95% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 64.65% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.40% | 1.1% | 2026-05-09 11:59 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.95% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 64.65% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.40% | 1.1% | 2026-05-09 11:59 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.95% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 64.65% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.40% | 1.1% | 2026-05-09 12:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.95% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 64.65% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.40% | 1.1% | 2026-05-09 11:59 |