Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.24
assuming max odds 16.00
assuming max odds 8.50
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Real Madrid (Local): 79.29%; Alavés (Visit): 7.98%; Draw: 12.73%. For Alavés (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 12.54. 22 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 16.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +27.64%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.59%EV -7.23%E -6.18%K -42.51%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 6.04%EV +27.64%E +1.73%K +1.84%G +0.509% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.37%EV +8.20%E +0.965%K +1.09%G +0.090% | 3.5% | 2026-04-21 19:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.88%EV -6.43%E -5.45%K -35.75%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 6.04%EV +27.64%E +1.73%K +1.84%G +0.509% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.08%EV +1.84%E +0.230%K +0.262%G +0.005% | 3.5% | 2026-04-21 19:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.88%EV -6.43%E -5.45%K -35.75%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 6.04%EV +27.64%E +1.73%K +1.84%G +0.509% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.08%EV +1.84%E +0.230%K +0.262%G +0.005% | 3.5% | 2026-04-21 19:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.88%EV -6.43%E -5.45%K -35.75%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 6.04%EV +27.64%E +1.73%K +1.84%G +0.509% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.08%EV +1.84%E +0.230%K +0.262%G +0.005% | 3.5% | 2026-04-21 19:25 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.55%EV -6.43%E -5.45%K -35.75%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.42%EV +19.66%E +1.31%K +1.40%G +0.276% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.03%EV +1.84%E +0.230%K +0.262%G +0.005% | 3.9% | 2026-04-21 19:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.81%EV -8.02%E -6.91%K -50.13%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.33%EV +19.66%E +1.31%K +1.40%G +0.276% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.86%EV +1.84%E +0.230%K +0.262%G +0.005% | 5.4% | 2026-04-21 19:25 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.81%EV -8.02%E -6.91%K -50.13%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.33%EV +19.66%E +1.31%K +1.40%G +0.276% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.86%EV +1.84%E +0.230%K +0.262%G +0.005% | 5.4% | 2026-04-21 19:25 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.81%EV -8.02%E -6.91%K -50.13%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.33%EV +19.66%E +1.31%K +1.40%G +0.276% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.86%EV +1.84%E +0.230%K +0.262%G +0.005% | 5.4% | 2026-04-21 19:25 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.81%EV -8.02%E -6.91%K -50.13%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.33%EV +19.66%E +1.31%K +1.40%G +0.276% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.86%EV +1.84%E +0.230%K +0.262%G +0.005% | 5.4% | 2026-04-21 19:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.94%EV -8.81%E -7.66%K -58.75%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.28%EV +19.66%E +1.31%K +1.40%G +0.276% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.78%EV +1.84%E +0.230%K +0.262%G +0.005% | 6.1% | 2026-04-21 19:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.94%EV -8.81%E -7.66%K -58.75%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.28%EV +19.66%E +1.31%K +1.40%G +0.276% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.78%EV +1.84%E +0.230%K +0.262%G +0.005% | 6.1% | 2026-04-21 19:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.94%EV -8.81%E -7.66%K -58.75%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.28%EV +19.66%E +1.31%K +1.40%G +0.276% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.78%EV +1.84%E +0.230%K +0.262%G +0.005% | 6.1% | 2026-04-21 19:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 81.57%EV -10.40%E -9.20%K -79.99%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.14%EV +19.66%E +1.31%K +1.40%G +0.276% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -4.53%E -0.604%K -0.697%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-21 19:25 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 81.05%EV -5.64%E -4.74%K -29.69%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.89%EV +11.69%E +0.835%K +0.899%G +0.105% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.06%EV +1.84%E +0.230%K +0.262%G +0.005% | 3.7% | 2026-04-21 19:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.70%EV -9.61%E -8.43%K -68.62%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.65%EV +11.69%E +0.835%K +0.899%G +0.105% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.64%EV +1.84%E +0.230%K +0.262%G +0.005% | 7.4% | 2026-04-21 19:25 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.94%EV -8.81%E -7.66%K -58.75%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.65%EV +11.69%E +0.835%K +0.899%G +0.105% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.41%EV -4.53%E -0.604%K -0.697%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-21 19:01 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 80.89%EV -4.06%E -3.35%K -19.31%G +0.000% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.25%EV +7.70%E +0.570%K +0.616%G +0.047% | 8.25I 12.12%NM 11.86%EV +5.02%E +0.608%K +0.692%G +0.035% | 2.2% | 2026-04-21 19:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.94%EV -4.06%E -3.35%K -19.31%G +0.000% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.16%EV +7.70%E +0.570%K +0.616%G +0.047% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.90%EV -4.53%E -0.604%K -0.697%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-04-21 19:05 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.94%EV -4.06%E -3.35%K -19.31%G +0.000% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.16%EV +7.70%E +0.570%K +0.616%G +0.047% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.90%EV -4.53%E -0.604%K -0.697%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-04-21 19:05 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 80.23%EV -3.26%E -2.67%K -14.83%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.53%EV +3.71%E +0.285%K +0.309%G +0.011% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.24%EV +1.84%E +0.230%K +0.262%G +0.005% | 2.2% | 2026-04-21 19:05 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.13%EV -4.85%E -4.04%K -24.24%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.30%EV +3.71%E +0.285%K +0.309%G +0.011% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.57%EV -10.89%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-21 18:30 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.12%EV -6.43%E -5.45%K -35.75%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.27%EV +3.71%E +0.285%K +0.309%G +0.011% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.61%EV -4.53%E -0.604%K -0.697%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-21 18:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.62%EV -5.64%E -4.74%K -29.69%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.58%EV -0.281%E -0.022%K -0.024%G +0.000% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 12.80%EV -5.80%E -0.784%K -0.906%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-21 19:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.62%EV -5.64%E -4.74%K -29.69%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.58%EV -0.281%E -0.022%K -0.024%G +0.000% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 12.80%EV -5.80%E -0.784%K -0.906%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-21 19:19 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.50%EV -4.85%E -4.04%K -24.24%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.95%EV -4.27%E -0.356%K -0.388%G +0.000% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.55%EV -3.25%E -0.428%K -0.493%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-21 19:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.51%EV -4.06%E -3.35%K -19.31%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.92%EV -4.27%E -0.356%K -0.388%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.57%EV -10.89%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-21 18:50 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.65%EV -4.85%E -4.04%K -24.24%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.87%EV -4.27%E -0.356%K -0.388%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -10.89%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-21 18:55 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.65%EV -4.85%E -4.04%K -24.24%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.87%EV -4.27%E -0.356%K -0.388%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -10.89%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-21 18:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.63%EV -7.23%E -6.18%K -42.51%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.86%EV -4.27%E -0.356%K -0.388%G +0.000% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 11.50%EV +4.38%E +0.535%K +0.609%G +0.027% | 6.0% | 2026-04-21 19:25 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40%EV -7.23%E -6.18%K -42.51%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.84%EV -4.27%E -0.356%K -0.388%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.76%EV +1.84%E +0.230%K +0.262%G +0.005% | 6.3% | 2026-04-21 19:04 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.64%EV -6.43%E -5.45%K -35.75%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -4.27%E -0.356%K -0.388%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.53%EV -4.53%E -0.604%K -0.697%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-21 18:50 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.64%EV -6.43%E -5.45%K -35.75%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -4.27%E -0.356%K -0.388%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.53%EV -4.53%E -0.604%K -0.697%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-21 18:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.79%EV -5.64%E -4.74%K -29.69%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.81%EV -4.27%E -0.356%K -0.388%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -10.89%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-21 19:03 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.78%EV -7.23%E -6.18%K -42.51%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV -4.27%E -0.356%K -0.388%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.45%EV -4.53%E -0.604%K -0.697%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-21 19:05 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.40%EV -5.64%E -4.74%K -29.69%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.77%EV -4.27%E -0.356%K -0.388%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.82%EV -14.07%E -2.09%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-21 19:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.91%EV -8.02%E -6.91%K -50.13%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.73%EV -4.27%E -0.356%K -0.388%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -4.53%E -0.604%K -0.697%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-21 19:05 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.00%EV -4.85%E -4.04%K -24.24%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.14%EV -8.26%E -0.718%K -0.787%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.87%EV -14.07%E -2.09%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-21 18:50 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 79.48%EV -3.26%E -2.67%K -14.83%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.81%EV -12.25%E -1.11%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 8.28I 12.08%NM 11.71%EV +5.40%E +0.652%K +0.742%G +0.040% | 3.1% | 2026-04-21 19:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 78.11%EV -1.68%E -1.35%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.80%EV -12.25%E -1.11%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.09%EV -5.80%E -0.784%K -0.906%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-04-21 19:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.80%EV -4.85%E -4.04%K -24.24%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.60%EV -12.25%E -1.11%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.61%EV -4.53%E -0.604%K -0.697%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-21 19:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.94%EV -5.64%E -4.74%K -29.69%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -12.25%E -1.11%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -4.53%E -0.604%K -0.697%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-21 19:11 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.94%EV -5.64%E -4.74%K -29.69%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -12.25%E -1.11%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -4.53%E -0.604%K -0.697%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-21 19:05 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.09%EV -4.85%E -4.04%K -24.24%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.52%EV -12.25%E -1.11%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -10.89%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-21 18:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.09%EV -4.85%E -4.04%K -24.24%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.52%EV -12.25%E -1.11%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -10.89%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-21 18:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.08%EV -6.43%E -5.45%K -35.75%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.48%EV -12.25%E -1.11%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.44%EV -4.53%E -0.604%K -0.697%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-21 19:05 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.30%EV -4.85%E -4.04%K -24.24%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.43%EV -12.25%E -1.11%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -17.26%E -2.65%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-21 19:05 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 78.96%EV -8.02%E -6.91%K -50.13%G +0.000% | 10.90I 9.17%NM 8.40%EV -13.05%E -1.20%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.63%EV -7.71%E -1.06%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-21 19:25 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.10%EV -4.85%E -4.04%K -24.24%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.04%EV -16.24%E -1.55%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.86%EV +1.84%E +0.230%K +0.262%G +0.005% | 5.4% | 2026-04-21 19:25 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.28%EV -5.64%E -4.74%K -29.69%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.87%EV -16.24%E -1.55%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.85%EV -7.71%E -1.06%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-21 19:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.14%EV -3.26%E -2.67%K -14.83%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.41%EV -20.22%E -2.02%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV -10.89%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-21 18:40 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.27%EV -5.64%E -4.74%K -29.69%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -20.22%E -2.02%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.42%EV -4.53%E -0.604%K -0.697%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-21 19:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 77.73%EV -6.43%E -5.45%K -35.75%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%EV -20.22%E -2.02%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.10%EV -10.89%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-21 19:14 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.45%EV -3.26%E -2.67%K -14.83%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -24.21%E -2.55%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.60%EV -4.53%E -0.604%K -0.697%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-21 19:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.45%EV -3.26%E -2.67%K -14.83%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -24.21%E -2.55%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.60%EV -4.53%E -0.604%K -0.697%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-21 18:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.91%EV -3.26%E -2.67%K -14.83%G +0.000% | 9.25I 10.81%NM 10.14%EV -26.21%E -2.83%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.94%EV -7.71%E -1.06%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-21 18:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.91%EV -3.26%E -2.67%K -14.83%G +0.000% | 9.25I 10.81%NM 10.14%EV -26.21%E -2.83%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.94%EV -7.71%E -1.06%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-21 18:40 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.22I 81.97%NM 81.78% | 14.50I 6.90%NM 6.88% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 11.34% | 0.2% | 2026-04-21 19:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.22I 81.97%NM 81.57% | 14.50I 6.90%NM 6.86% | 8.60I 11.63%NM 11.57% | 0.5% | 2026-04-21 19:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.22I 81.97%NM 81.56% | 14.49I 6.90%NM 6.87% | 8.60I 11.63%NM 11.57% | 0.5% | 2026-04-21 19:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.22I 81.97%NM 81.14% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 7.07% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.79% | 1.0% | 2026-04-21 19:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.21I 82.64%NM 81.69% | 14.50I 6.90%NM 6.82% | 8.60I 11.63%NM 11.49% | 1.2% | 2026-04-21 19:25 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.24% | 14.29I 7.00%NM 6.91% | 9.09I 11.00%NM 10.86% | 1.3% | 2026-04-21 19:25 |