La escuela de los momios

Real Madrid v Alavés

Inicio: 2026-04-21 19:30 UTC

Final: Real Madrid 2–1 Alavés

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Real Madrid (Local)

Predicción 79.29%1.26momio equitativo
EV -1.68%
Ventaja -1.35%
Kelly -6.99%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.24

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
76.91%79.23%79.45%82.59%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.131.191.191.2488.50%84.26%84.03%80.65%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Alavés (Visitante)

Predicción 7.98%12.54momio equitativo
EV +27.64%
Ventaja +1.73%
Kelly +1.84%
Crecimiento +0.509%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 16.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
6.04%8.04%7.89%10.14%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
9.2512.4912.0016.0010.81%8.01%8.33%6.25%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 12.73%7.86momio equitativo
EV +8.20%
Ventaja +0.965%
Kelly +1.09%
Crecimiento +0.090%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 8.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
11.37%12.73%12.66%14.27%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
6.507.557.508.5015.38%13.24%13.33%11.76%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (NL)1.17I 85.47%NM 82.59%EV -7.23%E -6.18%K -42.51%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 6.04%EV +27.64%E +1.73%K +1.84%G +0.509%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.37%EV +8.20%E +0.965%K +1.09%G +0.090%3.5%2026-04-21 19:25
Unibet (SE)1.18I 84.75%NM 81.88%EV -6.43%E -5.45%K -35.75%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 6.04%EV +27.64%E +1.73%K +1.84%G +0.509%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.08%EV +1.84%E +0.230%K +0.262%G +0.005%3.5%2026-04-21 19:25
Svenska Spel1.18I 84.75%NM 81.88%EV -6.43%E -5.45%K -35.75%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 6.04%EV +27.64%E +1.73%K +1.84%G +0.509%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.08%EV +1.84%E +0.230%K +0.262%G +0.005%3.5%2026-04-21 19:25
ATG (SE)1.18I 84.75%NM 81.88%EV -6.43%E -5.45%K -35.75%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 6.04%EV +27.64%E +1.73%K +1.84%G +0.509%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.08%EV +1.84%E +0.230%K +0.262%G +0.005%3.5%2026-04-21 19:25
PMU (FR)1.18I 84.75%NM 81.55%EV -6.43%E -5.45%K -35.75%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.42%EV +19.66%E +1.31%K +1.40%G +0.276%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.03%EV +1.84%E +0.230%K +0.262%G +0.005%3.9%2026-04-21 19:25
Grosvenor1.16I 86.21%NM 81.81%EV -8.02%E -6.91%K -50.13%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.33%EV +19.66%E +1.31%K +1.40%G +0.276%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.86%EV +1.84%E +0.230%K +0.262%G +0.005%5.4%2026-04-21 19:25
Casumo1.16I 86.21%NM 81.81%EV -8.02%E -6.91%K -50.13%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.33%EV +19.66%E +1.31%K +1.40%G +0.276%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.86%EV +1.84%E +0.230%K +0.262%G +0.005%5.4%2026-04-21 19:25
betPARX1.16I 86.21%NM 81.81%EV -8.02%E -6.91%K -50.13%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.33%EV +19.66%E +1.31%K +1.40%G +0.276%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.86%EV +1.84%E +0.230%K +0.262%G +0.005%5.4%2026-04-21 19:25
Bally Bet1.16I 86.21%NM 81.81%EV -8.02%E -6.91%K -50.13%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.33%EV +19.66%E +1.31%K +1.40%G +0.276%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.86%EV +1.84%E +0.230%K +0.262%G +0.005%5.4%2026-04-21 19:25
Unibet1.15I 86.96%NM 81.94%EV -8.81%E -7.66%K -58.75%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.28%EV +19.66%E +1.31%K +1.40%G +0.276%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.78%EV +1.84%E +0.230%K +0.262%G +0.005%6.1%2026-04-21 19:25
TABtouch1.15I 86.96%NM 81.94%EV -8.81%E -7.66%K -58.75%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.28%EV +19.66%E +1.31%K +1.40%G +0.276%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.78%EV +1.84%E +0.230%K +0.262%G +0.005%6.1%2026-04-21 19:25
LeoVegas (SE)1.15I 86.96%NM 81.94%EV -8.81%E -7.66%K -58.75%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.28%EV +19.66%E +1.31%K +1.40%G +0.276%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.78%EV +1.84%E +0.230%K +0.262%G +0.005%6.1%2026-04-21 19:25
LeoVegas1.13I 88.50%NM 81.57%EV -10.40%E -9.20%K -79.99%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.14%EV +19.66%E +1.31%K +1.40%G +0.276%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -4.53%E -0.604%K -0.697%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-21 19:25
Unibet (FR)1.19I 84.03%NM 81.05%EV -5.64%E -4.74%K -29.69%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.89%EV +11.69%E +0.835%K +0.899%G +0.105%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.06%EV +1.84%E +0.230%K +0.262%G +0.005%3.7%2026-04-21 19:25
Virgin Bet1.14I 87.72%NM 81.70%EV -9.61%E -8.43%K -68.62%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.65%EV +11.69%E +0.835%K +0.899%G +0.105%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.64%EV +1.84%E +0.230%K +0.262%G +0.005%7.4%2026-04-21 19:25
BetRivers1.15I 86.96%NM 80.94%EV -8.81%E -7.66%K -58.75%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.65%EV +11.69%E +0.835%K +0.899%G +0.105%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.41%EV -4.53%E -0.604%K -0.697%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-21 19:01
Pinnacle1.21I 82.64%NM 80.89%EV -4.06%E -3.35%K -19.31%G +0.000%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.25%EV +7.70%E +0.570%K +0.616%G +0.047%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.86%EV +5.02%E +0.608%K +0.692%G +0.035%2.2%2026-04-21 19:20
BetOnline.ag1.21I 82.64%NM 79.94%EV -4.06%E -3.35%K -19.31%G +0.000%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.16%EV +7.70%E +0.570%K +0.616%G +0.047%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.90%EV -4.53%E -0.604%K -0.697%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-21 19:05
LowVig.ag1.21I 82.64%NM 79.94%EV -4.06%E -3.35%K -19.31%G +0.000%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.16%EV +7.70%E +0.570%K +0.616%G +0.047%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.90%EV -4.53%E -0.604%K -0.697%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-21 19:05
Coolbet1.22I 81.97%NM 80.23%EV -3.26%E -2.67%K -14.83%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.53%EV +3.71%E +0.285%K +0.309%G +0.011%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.24%EV +1.84%E +0.230%K +0.262%G +0.005%2.2%2026-04-21 19:05
theScore Bet1.20I 83.33%NM 79.13%EV -4.85%E -4.04%K -24.24%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.30%EV +3.71%E +0.285%K +0.309%G +0.011%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.57%EV -10.89%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-21 18:30
Bet Victor1.18I 84.75%NM 80.12%EV -6.43%E -5.45%K -35.75%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.27%EV +3.71%E +0.285%K +0.309%G +0.011%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.61%EV -4.53%E -0.604%K -0.697%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-21 18:55
NordicBet1.19I 84.03%NM 79.62%EV -5.64%E -4.74%K -29.69%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.58%EV -0.281%E -0.022%K -0.024%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.80%EV -5.80%E -0.784%K -0.906%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-21 19:20
Betsson1.19I 84.03%NM 79.62%EV -5.64%E -4.74%K -29.69%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.58%EV -0.281%E -0.022%K -0.024%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.80%EV -5.80%E -0.784%K -0.906%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-21 19:19
Codere (IT)1.20I 83.33%NM 79.50%EV -4.85%E -4.04%K -24.24%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.95%EV -4.27%E -0.356%K -0.388%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.55%EV -3.25%E -0.428%K -0.493%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-21 19:25
DraftKings1.21I 82.64%NM 78.51%EV -4.06%E -3.35%K -19.31%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.92%EV -4.27%E -0.356%K -0.388%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.57%EV -10.89%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-21 18:50
TAB1.20I 83.33%NM 78.65%EV -4.85%E -4.04%K -24.24%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.87%EV -4.27%E -0.356%K -0.388%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -10.89%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-21 18:55
betfred_uk1.20I 83.33%NM 78.65%EV -4.85%E -4.04%K -24.24%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.87%EV -4.27%E -0.356%K -0.388%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -10.89%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-21 18:50
Tipico (DE)1.17I 85.47%NM 80.63%EV -7.23%E -6.18%K -42.51%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.86%EV -4.27%E -0.356%K -0.388%G +0.000%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.50%EV +4.38%E +0.535%K +0.609%G +0.027%6.0%2026-04-21 19:25
Sky Bet1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40%EV -7.23%E -6.18%K -42.51%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.84%EV -4.27%E -0.356%K -0.388%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.76%EV +1.84%E +0.230%K +0.262%G +0.005%6.3%2026-04-21 19:04
Fanatics1.18I 84.75%NM 79.64%EV -6.43%E -5.45%K -35.75%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -4.27%E -0.356%K -0.388%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.53%EV -4.53%E -0.604%K -0.697%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-21 18:50
Everygame1.18I 84.75%NM 79.64%EV -6.43%E -5.45%K -35.75%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -4.27%E -0.356%K -0.388%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.53%EV -4.53%E -0.604%K -0.697%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-21 18:50
Betclic (FR)1.19I 84.03%NM 78.79%EV -5.64%E -4.74%K -29.69%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.81%EV -4.27%E -0.356%K -0.388%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -10.89%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-21 19:03
Paddy Power1.17I 85.47%NM 79.78%EV -7.23%E -6.18%K -42.51%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV -4.27%E -0.356%K -0.388%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.45%EV -4.53%E -0.604%K -0.697%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-21 19:05
PlayUp1.19I 84.03%NM 78.40%EV -5.64%E -4.74%K -29.69%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.77%EV -4.27%E -0.356%K -0.388%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.82%EV -14.07%E -2.09%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-21 19:20
SportsBet1.16I 86.21%NM 79.91%EV -8.02%E -6.91%K -50.13%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.73%EV -4.27%E -0.356%K -0.388%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -4.53%E -0.604%K -0.697%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-21 19:05
Betr (AU)1.20I 83.33%NM 78.00%EV -4.85%E -4.04%K -24.24%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.14%EV -8.26%E -0.718%K -0.787%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.87%EV -14.07%E -2.09%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-21 18:50
1xBet1.22I 81.97%NM 79.48%EV -3.26%E -2.67%K -14.83%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.81%EV -12.25%E -1.11%K -1.22%G +0.000%8.28I 12.08%NM 11.71%EV +5.40%E +0.652%K +0.742%G +0.040%3.1%2026-04-21 19:20
Marathon Bet1.24I 80.65%NM 78.11%EV -1.68%E -1.35%K -6.99%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.80%EV -12.25%E -1.11%K -1.22%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.09%EV -5.80%E -0.784%K -0.906%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-21 19:20
Unibet (UK)1.20I 83.33%NM 78.80%EV -4.85%E -4.04%K -24.24%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.60%EV -12.25%E -1.11%K -1.22%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.61%EV -4.53%E -0.604%K -0.697%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-21 19:20
Bovada1.19I 84.03%NM 78.94%EV -5.64%E -4.74%K -29.69%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -12.25%E -1.11%K -1.22%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -4.53%E -0.604%K -0.697%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-21 19:11
BetUS1.19I 84.03%NM 78.94%EV -5.64%E -4.74%K -29.69%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -12.25%E -1.11%K -1.22%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -4.53%E -0.604%K -0.697%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-21 19:05
William Hill1.20I 83.33%NM 78.09%EV -4.85%E -4.04%K -24.24%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.52%EV -12.25%E -1.11%K -1.22%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -10.89%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-21 18:50
Mr Green (SE)1.20I 83.33%NM 78.09%EV -4.85%E -4.04%K -24.24%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.52%EV -12.25%E -1.11%K -1.22%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -10.89%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-21 18:50
FanDuel1.18I 84.75%NM 79.08%EV -6.43%E -5.45%K -35.75%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.48%EV -12.25%E -1.11%K -1.22%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.44%EV -4.53%E -0.604%K -0.697%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-21 19:05
Bet Right1.20I 83.33%NM 77.30%EV -4.85%E -4.04%K -24.24%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.43%EV -12.25%E -1.11%K -1.22%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -17.26%E -2.65%K -3.14%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-21 19:05
Fliff1.16I 86.21%NM 78.96%EV -8.02%E -6.91%K -50.13%G +0.000%10.90I 9.17%NM 8.40%EV -13.05%E -1.20%K -1.32%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.63%EV -7.71%E -1.06%K -1.23%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-21 19:25
Winamax (DE)1.20I 83.33%NM 79.10%EV -4.85%E -4.04%K -24.24%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.04%EV -16.24%E -1.55%K -1.71%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.86%EV +1.84%E +0.230%K +0.262%G +0.005%5.4%2026-04-21 19:25
NetBet (FR)1.19I 84.03%NM 78.28%EV -5.64%E -4.74%K -29.69%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.87%EV -16.24%E -1.55%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.85%EV -7.71%E -1.06%K -1.23%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-21 19:25
Betway1.22I 81.97%NM 77.14%EV -3.26%E -2.67%K -14.83%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.41%EV -20.22%E -2.02%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV -10.89%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-21 18:40
Winamax (FR)1.19I 84.03%NM 78.27%EV -5.64%E -4.74%K -29.69%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -20.22%E -2.02%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.42%EV -4.53%E -0.604%K -0.697%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-21 19:20
BoyleSports1.18I 84.75%NM 77.73%EV -6.43%E -5.45%K -35.75%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%EV -20.22%E -2.02%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.10%EV -10.89%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-21 19:14
Coral1.22I 81.97%NM 77.45%EV -3.26%E -2.67%K -14.83%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -24.21%E -2.55%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.60%EV -4.53%E -0.604%K -0.697%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-21 19:10
Ladbrokes (UK)1.22I 81.97%NM 77.45%EV -3.26%E -2.67%K -14.83%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -24.21%E -2.55%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.60%EV -4.53%E -0.604%K -0.697%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-21 18:40
Neds1.22I 81.97%NM 76.91%EV -3.26%E -2.67%K -14.83%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.14%EV -26.21%E -2.83%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.94%EV -7.71%E -1.06%K -1.23%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-21 18:40
Ladbrokes (AU)1.22I 81.97%NM 76.91%EV -3.26%E -2.67%K -14.83%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.14%EV -26.21%E -2.83%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.94%EV -7.71%E -1.06%K -1.23%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-21 18:40
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.22I 81.97%NM 81.78%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.88%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.34%0.2%2026-04-21 19:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.22I 81.97%NM 81.57%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.86%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.57%0.5%2026-04-21 19:25
Smarkets1.22I 81.97%NM 81.56%14.49I 6.90%NM 6.87%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.57%0.5%2026-04-21 19:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.22I 81.97%NM 81.14%14.00I 7.14%NM 7.07%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.79%1.0%2026-04-21 19:25
Matchbook1.21I 82.64%NM 81.69%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.82%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.49%1.2%2026-04-21 19:25
Kalshi1.20I 83.33%NM 82.24%14.29I 7.00%NM 6.91%9.09I 11.00%NM 10.86%1.3%2026-04-21 19:25