A Escola das Odds

Real Madrid v Alavés

Início: 2026-04-21 19:30 UTC

Final: Real Madrid 2–1 Alavés

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

56 casas de apostas (19 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: IQM

Real Madrid (Local)

Previsão 79.29%1.26odd justa
EV -1.68%
Vantagem -1.35%
Kelly -6.99%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.24

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
76.91%79.23%79.45%82.59%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
1.131.191.191.2488.50%84.26%84.03%80.65%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Alavés (Visitante)

Previsão 7.98%12.54odd justa
EV +27.64%
Vantagem +1.73%
Kelly +1.84%
Crescimento +0.509%

pressupondo odds máximas de 16.00

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
6.04%8.04%7.89%10.14%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
9.2512.4912.0016.0010.81%8.01%8.33%6.25%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Empate

Previsão 12.73%7.86odd justa
EV +8.20%
Vantagem +0.965%
Kelly +1.09%
Crescimento +0.090%

pressupondo odds máximas de 8.50

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
11.37%12.73%12.66%14.27%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
6.507.557.508.5015.38%13.24%13.33%11.76%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Odds das casas de apostas (56 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
Unibet (NL)1.17I 85.47%NM 82.59%EV -7.23%E -6.18%K -42.51%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 6.04%EV +27.64%E +1.73%K +1.84%G +0.509%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.37%EV +8.20%E +0.965%K +1.09%G +0.090%3.5%2026-04-21 19:25
Unibet (SE)1.18I 84.75%NM 81.88%EV -6.43%E -5.45%K -35.75%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 6.04%EV +27.64%E +1.73%K +1.84%G +0.509%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.08%EV +1.84%E +0.230%K +0.262%G +0.005%3.5%2026-04-21 19:25
Svenska Spel1.18I 84.75%NM 81.88%EV -6.43%E -5.45%K -35.75%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 6.04%EV +27.64%E +1.73%K +1.84%G +0.509%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.08%EV +1.84%E +0.230%K +0.262%G +0.005%3.5%2026-04-21 19:25
ATG (SE)1.18I 84.75%NM 81.88%EV -6.43%E -5.45%K -35.75%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 6.04%EV +27.64%E +1.73%K +1.84%G +0.509%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.08%EV +1.84%E +0.230%K +0.262%G +0.005%3.5%2026-04-21 19:25
PMU (FR)1.18I 84.75%NM 81.55%EV -6.43%E -5.45%K -35.75%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.42%EV +19.66%E +1.31%K +1.40%G +0.276%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.03%EV +1.84%E +0.230%K +0.262%G +0.005%3.9%2026-04-21 19:25
Grosvenor1.16I 86.21%NM 81.81%EV -8.02%E -6.91%K -50.13%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.33%EV +19.66%E +1.31%K +1.40%G +0.276%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.86%EV +1.84%E +0.230%K +0.262%G +0.005%5.4%2026-04-21 19:25
Casumo1.16I 86.21%NM 81.81%EV -8.02%E -6.91%K -50.13%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.33%EV +19.66%E +1.31%K +1.40%G +0.276%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.86%EV +1.84%E +0.230%K +0.262%G +0.005%5.4%2026-04-21 19:25
betPARX1.16I 86.21%NM 81.81%EV -8.02%E -6.91%K -50.13%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.33%EV +19.66%E +1.31%K +1.40%G +0.276%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.86%EV +1.84%E +0.230%K +0.262%G +0.005%5.4%2026-04-21 19:25
Bally Bet1.16I 86.21%NM 81.81%EV -8.02%E -6.91%K -50.13%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.33%EV +19.66%E +1.31%K +1.40%G +0.276%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.86%EV +1.84%E +0.230%K +0.262%G +0.005%5.4%2026-04-21 19:25
Unibet1.15I 86.96%NM 81.94%EV -8.81%E -7.66%K -58.75%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.28%EV +19.66%E +1.31%K +1.40%G +0.276%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.78%EV +1.84%E +0.230%K +0.262%G +0.005%6.1%2026-04-21 19:25
TABtouch1.15I 86.96%NM 81.94%EV -8.81%E -7.66%K -58.75%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.28%EV +19.66%E +1.31%K +1.40%G +0.276%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.78%EV +1.84%E +0.230%K +0.262%G +0.005%6.1%2026-04-21 19:25
LeoVegas (SE)1.15I 86.96%NM 81.94%EV -8.81%E -7.66%K -58.75%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.28%EV +19.66%E +1.31%K +1.40%G +0.276%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.78%EV +1.84%E +0.230%K +0.262%G +0.005%6.1%2026-04-21 19:25
LeoVegas1.13I 88.50%NM 81.57%EV -10.40%E -9.20%K -79.99%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.14%EV +19.66%E +1.31%K +1.40%G +0.276%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -4.53%E -0.604%K -0.697%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-21 19:25
Unibet (FR)1.19I 84.03%NM 81.05%EV -5.64%E -4.74%K -29.69%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.89%EV +11.69%E +0.835%K +0.899%G +0.105%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.06%EV +1.84%E +0.230%K +0.262%G +0.005%3.7%2026-04-21 19:25
Virgin Bet1.14I 87.72%NM 81.70%EV -9.61%E -8.43%K -68.62%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.65%EV +11.69%E +0.835%K +0.899%G +0.105%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.64%EV +1.84%E +0.230%K +0.262%G +0.005%7.4%2026-04-21 19:25
BetRivers1.15I 86.96%NM 80.94%EV -8.81%E -7.66%K -58.75%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.65%EV +11.69%E +0.835%K +0.899%G +0.105%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.41%EV -4.53%E -0.604%K -0.697%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-21 19:01
Pinnacle1.21I 82.64%NM 80.89%EV -4.06%E -3.35%K -19.31%G +0.000%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.25%EV +7.70%E +0.570%K +0.616%G +0.047%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.86%EV +5.02%E +0.608%K +0.692%G +0.035%2.2%2026-04-21 19:20
BetOnline.ag1.21I 82.64%NM 79.94%EV -4.06%E -3.35%K -19.31%G +0.000%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.16%EV +7.70%E +0.570%K +0.616%G +0.047%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.90%EV -4.53%E -0.604%K -0.697%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-21 19:05
LowVig.ag1.21I 82.64%NM 79.94%EV -4.06%E -3.35%K -19.31%G +0.000%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.16%EV +7.70%E +0.570%K +0.616%G +0.047%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.90%EV -4.53%E -0.604%K -0.697%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-21 19:05
Coolbet1.22I 81.97%NM 80.23%EV -3.26%E -2.67%K -14.83%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.53%EV +3.71%E +0.285%K +0.309%G +0.011%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.24%EV +1.84%E +0.230%K +0.262%G +0.005%2.2%2026-04-21 19:05
theScore Bet1.20I 83.33%NM 79.13%EV -4.85%E -4.04%K -24.24%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.30%EV +3.71%E +0.285%K +0.309%G +0.011%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.57%EV -10.89%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-21 18:30
Bet Victor1.18I 84.75%NM 80.12%EV -6.43%E -5.45%K -35.75%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.27%EV +3.71%E +0.285%K +0.309%G +0.011%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.61%EV -4.53%E -0.604%K -0.697%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-21 18:55
NordicBet1.19I 84.03%NM 79.62%EV -5.64%E -4.74%K -29.69%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.58%EV -0.281%E -0.022%K -0.024%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.80%EV -5.80%E -0.784%K -0.906%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-21 19:20
Betsson1.19I 84.03%NM 79.62%EV -5.64%E -4.74%K -29.69%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.58%EV -0.281%E -0.022%K -0.024%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.80%EV -5.80%E -0.784%K -0.906%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-21 19:19
Codere (IT)1.20I 83.33%NM 79.50%EV -4.85%E -4.04%K -24.24%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.95%EV -4.27%E -0.356%K -0.388%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.55%EV -3.25%E -0.428%K -0.493%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-21 19:25
DraftKings1.21I 82.64%NM 78.51%EV -4.06%E -3.35%K -19.31%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.92%EV -4.27%E -0.356%K -0.388%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.57%EV -10.89%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-21 18:50
TAB1.20I 83.33%NM 78.65%EV -4.85%E -4.04%K -24.24%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.87%EV -4.27%E -0.356%K -0.388%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -10.89%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-21 18:55
betfred_uk1.20I 83.33%NM 78.65%EV -4.85%E -4.04%K -24.24%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.87%EV -4.27%E -0.356%K -0.388%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -10.89%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-21 18:50
Tipico (DE)1.17I 85.47%NM 80.63%EV -7.23%E -6.18%K -42.51%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.86%EV -4.27%E -0.356%K -0.388%G +0.000%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.50%EV +4.38%E +0.535%K +0.609%G +0.027%6.0%2026-04-21 19:25
Sky Bet1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40%EV -7.23%E -6.18%K -42.51%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.84%EV -4.27%E -0.356%K -0.388%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.76%EV +1.84%E +0.230%K +0.262%G +0.005%6.3%2026-04-21 19:04
Fanatics1.18I 84.75%NM 79.64%EV -6.43%E -5.45%K -35.75%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -4.27%E -0.356%K -0.388%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.53%EV -4.53%E -0.604%K -0.697%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-21 18:50
Everygame1.18I 84.75%NM 79.64%EV -6.43%E -5.45%K -35.75%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -4.27%E -0.356%K -0.388%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.53%EV -4.53%E -0.604%K -0.697%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-21 18:50
Betclic (FR)1.19I 84.03%NM 78.79%EV -5.64%E -4.74%K -29.69%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.81%EV -4.27%E -0.356%K -0.388%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -10.89%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-21 19:03
Paddy Power1.17I 85.47%NM 79.78%EV -7.23%E -6.18%K -42.51%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV -4.27%E -0.356%K -0.388%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.45%EV -4.53%E -0.604%K -0.697%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-21 19:05
PlayUp1.19I 84.03%NM 78.40%EV -5.64%E -4.74%K -29.69%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.77%EV -4.27%E -0.356%K -0.388%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.82%EV -14.07%E -2.09%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-21 19:20
SportsBet1.16I 86.21%NM 79.91%EV -8.02%E -6.91%K -50.13%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.73%EV -4.27%E -0.356%K -0.388%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -4.53%E -0.604%K -0.697%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-21 19:05
Betr (AU)1.20I 83.33%NM 78.00%EV -4.85%E -4.04%K -24.24%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.14%EV -8.26%E -0.718%K -0.787%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.87%EV -14.07%E -2.09%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-21 18:50
1xBet1.22I 81.97%NM 79.48%EV -3.26%E -2.67%K -14.83%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.81%EV -12.25%E -1.11%K -1.22%G +0.000%8.28I 12.08%NM 11.71%EV +5.40%E +0.652%K +0.742%G +0.040%3.1%2026-04-21 19:20
Marathon Bet1.24I 80.65%NM 78.11%EV -1.68%E -1.35%K -6.99%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.80%EV -12.25%E -1.11%K -1.22%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.09%EV -5.80%E -0.784%K -0.906%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-21 19:20
Unibet (UK)1.20I 83.33%NM 78.80%EV -4.85%E -4.04%K -24.24%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.60%EV -12.25%E -1.11%K -1.22%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.61%EV -4.53%E -0.604%K -0.697%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-21 19:20
Bovada1.19I 84.03%NM 78.94%EV -5.64%E -4.74%K -29.69%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -12.25%E -1.11%K -1.22%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -4.53%E -0.604%K -0.697%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-21 19:11
BetUS1.19I 84.03%NM 78.94%EV -5.64%E -4.74%K -29.69%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -12.25%E -1.11%K -1.22%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -4.53%E -0.604%K -0.697%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-21 19:05
William Hill1.20I 83.33%NM 78.09%EV -4.85%E -4.04%K -24.24%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.52%EV -12.25%E -1.11%K -1.22%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -10.89%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-21 18:50
Mr Green (SE)1.20I 83.33%NM 78.09%EV -4.85%E -4.04%K -24.24%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.52%EV -12.25%E -1.11%K -1.22%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -10.89%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-21 18:50
FanDuel1.18I 84.75%NM 79.08%EV -6.43%E -5.45%K -35.75%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.48%EV -12.25%E -1.11%K -1.22%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.44%EV -4.53%E -0.604%K -0.697%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-21 19:05
Bet Right1.20I 83.33%NM 77.30%EV -4.85%E -4.04%K -24.24%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.43%EV -12.25%E -1.11%K -1.22%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -17.26%E -2.65%K -3.14%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-21 19:05
Fliff1.16I 86.21%NM 78.96%EV -8.02%E -6.91%K -50.13%G +0.000%10.90I 9.17%NM 8.40%EV -13.05%E -1.20%K -1.32%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.63%EV -7.71%E -1.06%K -1.23%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-21 19:25
Winamax (DE)1.20I 83.33%NM 79.10%EV -4.85%E -4.04%K -24.24%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.04%EV -16.24%E -1.55%K -1.71%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.86%EV +1.84%E +0.230%K +0.262%G +0.005%5.4%2026-04-21 19:25
NetBet (FR)1.19I 84.03%NM 78.28%EV -5.64%E -4.74%K -29.69%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.87%EV -16.24%E -1.55%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.85%EV -7.71%E -1.06%K -1.23%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-21 19:25
Betway1.22I 81.97%NM 77.14%EV -3.26%E -2.67%K -14.83%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.41%EV -20.22%E -2.02%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV -10.89%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-21 18:40
Winamax (FR)1.19I 84.03%NM 78.27%EV -5.64%E -4.74%K -29.69%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -20.22%E -2.02%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.42%EV -4.53%E -0.604%K -0.697%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-21 19:20
BoyleSports1.18I 84.75%NM 77.73%EV -6.43%E -5.45%K -35.75%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%EV -20.22%E -2.02%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.10%EV -10.89%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-21 19:14
Coral1.22I 81.97%NM 77.45%EV -3.26%E -2.67%K -14.83%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -24.21%E -2.55%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.60%EV -4.53%E -0.604%K -0.697%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-21 19:10
Ladbrokes (UK)1.22I 81.97%NM 77.45%EV -3.26%E -2.67%K -14.83%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -24.21%E -2.55%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.60%EV -4.53%E -0.604%K -0.697%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-21 18:40
Neds1.22I 81.97%NM 76.91%EV -3.26%E -2.67%K -14.83%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.14%EV -26.21%E -2.83%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.94%EV -7.71%E -1.06%K -1.23%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-21 18:40
Ladbrokes (AU)1.22I 81.97%NM 76.91%EV -3.26%E -2.67%K -14.83%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.14%EV -26.21%E -2.83%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.94%EV -7.71%E -1.06%K -1.23%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-21 18:40
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.22I 81.97%NM 81.78%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.88%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.34%0.2%2026-04-21 19:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.22I 81.97%NM 81.57%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.86%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.57%0.5%2026-04-21 19:25
Smarkets1.22I 81.97%NM 81.56%14.49I 6.90%NM 6.87%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.57%0.5%2026-04-21 19:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.22I 81.97%NM 81.14%14.00I 7.14%NM 7.07%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.79%1.0%2026-04-21 19:25
Matchbook1.21I 82.64%NM 81.69%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.82%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.49%1.2%2026-04-21 19:25
Kalshi1.20I 83.33%NM 82.24%14.29I 7.00%NM 6.91%9.09I 11.00%NM 10.86%1.3%2026-04-21 19:25