Modèle par défautMoyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Real Madrid v Alavés

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-21 19:30 UTC

Score final : Real Madrid 2–1 Alavés

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

56 opérateurs (19 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Real Madrid (Local)

Prévision 79.29%1.26cote équitable
EV -1.68%
Avantage -1.35%
Kelly -6.99%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.24

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
76.91%79.23%79.45%82.59%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
1.131.191.191.2488.50%84.26%84.03%80.65%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Alavés (Visiteur)

Prévision 7.98%12.54cote équitable
EV +27.64%
Avantage +1.73%
Kelly +1.84%
Croissance +0.509%

avec la cote maximale 16.00

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
6.04%8.04%7.89%10.14%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
9.2512.4912.0016.0010.81%8.01%8.33%6.25%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Match nul

Prévision 12.73%7.86cote équitable
EV +8.20%
Avantage +0.965%
Kelly +1.09%
Croissance +0.090%

avec la cote maximale 8.50

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
11.37%12.73%12.66%14.27%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
6.507.557.508.5015.38%13.24%13.33%11.76%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Aux dernières cotes avant le début, Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée) estimait pour Résultat du match : Real Madrid (Local) : 79.29% ; Alavés (Visiteur) : 7.98% ; Match nul : 12.73%. Pour Alavés (Visiteur), cette estimation équivalait à une cote décimale juste de 12.54. 22 opérateurs proposaient une cote de clôture supérieure à ce seuil ; la meilleure était 16.00, soit une espérance positive de +27.64%.

Cotes des opérateurs (56 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
Unibet (NL)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 82.59%EV -7.23%E -6.18%K -42.51%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 6.04%EV +27.64%E +1.73%K +1.84%G +0.509%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.37%EV +8.20%E +0.965%K +1.09%G +0.090%3.5%2026-04-21 19:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 81.88%EV -6.43%E -5.45%K -35.75%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 6.04%EV +27.64%E +1.73%K +1.84%G +0.509%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.08%EV +1.84%E +0.230%K +0.262%G +0.005%3.5%2026-04-21 19:25
Svenska Spel🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 81.88%EV -6.43%E -5.45%K -35.75%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 6.04%EV +27.64%E +1.73%K +1.84%G +0.509%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.08%EV +1.84%E +0.230%K +0.262%G +0.005%3.5%2026-04-21 19:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 81.88%EV -6.43%E -5.45%K -35.75%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 6.04%EV +27.64%E +1.73%K +1.84%G +0.509%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.08%EV +1.84%E +0.230%K +0.262%G +0.005%3.5%2026-04-21 19:25
PMU (FR)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 81.55%EV -6.43%E -5.45%K -35.75%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.42%EV +19.66%E +1.31%K +1.40%G +0.276%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.03%EV +1.84%E +0.230%K +0.262%G +0.005%3.9%2026-04-21 19:25
Grosvenor🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.81%EV -8.02%E -6.91%K -50.13%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.33%EV +19.66%E +1.31%K +1.40%G +0.276%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.86%EV +1.84%E +0.230%K +0.262%G +0.005%5.4%2026-04-21 19:25
Casumo🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.81%EV -8.02%E -6.91%K -50.13%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.33%EV +19.66%E +1.31%K +1.40%G +0.276%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.86%EV +1.84%E +0.230%K +0.262%G +0.005%5.4%2026-04-21 19:25
betPARX🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.81%EV -8.02%E -6.91%K -50.13%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.33%EV +19.66%E +1.31%K +1.40%G +0.276%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.86%EV +1.84%E +0.230%K +0.262%G +0.005%5.4%2026-04-21 19:25
Bally Bet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.81%EV -8.02%E -6.91%K -50.13%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.33%EV +19.66%E +1.31%K +1.40%G +0.276%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.86%EV +1.84%E +0.230%K +0.262%G +0.005%5.4%2026-04-21 19:25
Unibet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.94%EV -8.81%E -7.66%K -58.75%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.28%EV +19.66%E +1.31%K +1.40%G +0.276%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.78%EV +1.84%E +0.230%K +0.262%G +0.005%6.1%2026-04-21 19:25
TABtouch🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.94%EV -8.81%E -7.66%K -58.75%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.28%EV +19.66%E +1.31%K +1.40%G +0.276%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.78%EV +1.84%E +0.230%K +0.262%G +0.005%6.1%2026-04-21 19:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.94%EV -8.81%E -7.66%K -58.75%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.28%EV +19.66%E +1.31%K +1.40%G +0.276%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.78%EV +1.84%E +0.230%K +0.262%G +0.005%6.1%2026-04-21 19:25
LeoVegas🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 81.57%EV -10.40%E -9.20%K -79.99%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.14%EV +19.66%E +1.31%K +1.40%G +0.276%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -4.53%E -0.604%K -0.697%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-21 19:25
Unibet (FR)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 81.05%EV -5.64%E -4.74%K -29.69%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.89%EV +11.69%E +0.835%K +0.899%G +0.105%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.06%EV +1.84%E +0.230%K +0.262%G +0.005%3.7%2026-04-21 19:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 81.70%EV -9.61%E -8.43%K -68.62%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.65%EV +11.69%E +0.835%K +0.899%G +0.105%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.64%EV +1.84%E +0.230%K +0.262%G +0.005%7.4%2026-04-21 19:25
BetRivers🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 80.94%EV -8.81%E -7.66%K -58.75%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.65%EV +11.69%E +0.835%K +0.899%G +0.105%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.41%EV -4.53%E -0.604%K -0.697%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-21 19:01
Pinnacle🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 80.89%EV -4.06%E -3.35%K -19.31%G +0.000%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.25%EV +7.70%E +0.570%K +0.616%G +0.047%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.86%EV +5.02%E +0.608%K +0.692%G +0.035%2.2%2026-04-21 19:20
BetOnline.ag🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 79.94%EV -4.06%E -3.35%K -19.31%G +0.000%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.16%EV +7.70%E +0.570%K +0.616%G +0.047%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.90%EV -4.53%E -0.604%K -0.697%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-21 19:05
LowVig.ag🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 79.94%EV -4.06%E -3.35%K -19.31%G +0.000%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.16%EV +7.70%E +0.570%K +0.616%G +0.047%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.90%EV -4.53%E -0.604%K -0.697%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-21 19:05
Coolbet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 80.23%EV -3.26%E -2.67%K -14.83%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.53%EV +3.71%E +0.285%K +0.309%G +0.011%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.24%EV +1.84%E +0.230%K +0.262%G +0.005%2.2%2026-04-21 19:05
theScore Bet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 79.13%EV -4.85%E -4.04%K -24.24%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.30%EV +3.71%E +0.285%K +0.309%G +0.011%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.57%EV -10.89%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-21 18:30
Bet Victor🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.12%EV -6.43%E -5.45%K -35.75%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.27%EV +3.71%E +0.285%K +0.309%G +0.011%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.61%EV -4.53%E -0.604%K -0.697%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-21 18:55
NordicBet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.62%EV -5.64%E -4.74%K -29.69%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.58%EV -0.281%E -0.022%K -0.024%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.80%EV -5.80%E -0.784%K -0.906%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-21 19:20
Betsson🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.62%EV -5.64%E -4.74%K -29.69%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.58%EV -0.281%E -0.022%K -0.024%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.80%EV -5.80%E -0.784%K -0.906%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-21 19:19
Codere (IT)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 79.50%EV -4.85%E -4.04%K -24.24%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.95%EV -4.27%E -0.356%K -0.388%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.55%EV -3.25%E -0.428%K -0.493%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-21 19:25
DraftKings🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 78.51%EV -4.06%E -3.35%K -19.31%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.92%EV -4.27%E -0.356%K -0.388%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.57%EV -10.89%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-21 18:50
TAB🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.65%EV -4.85%E -4.04%K -24.24%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.87%EV -4.27%E -0.356%K -0.388%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -10.89%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-21 18:55
betfred_uk🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.65%EV -4.85%E -4.04%K -24.24%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.87%EV -4.27%E -0.356%K -0.388%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -10.89%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-21 18:50
Tipico (DE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.63%EV -7.23%E -6.18%K -42.51%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.86%EV -4.27%E -0.356%K -0.388%G +0.000%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.50%EV +4.38%E +0.535%K +0.609%G +0.027%6.0%2026-04-21 19:25
Sky Bet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40%EV -7.23%E -6.18%K -42.51%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.84%EV -4.27%E -0.356%K -0.388%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.76%EV +1.84%E +0.230%K +0.262%G +0.005%6.3%2026-04-21 19:04
Fanatics🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.64%EV -6.43%E -5.45%K -35.75%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -4.27%E -0.356%K -0.388%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.53%EV -4.53%E -0.604%K -0.697%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-21 18:50
Everygame🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.64%EV -6.43%E -5.45%K -35.75%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -4.27%E -0.356%K -0.388%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.53%EV -4.53%E -0.604%K -0.697%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-21 18:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.79%EV -5.64%E -4.74%K -29.69%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.81%EV -4.27%E -0.356%K -0.388%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -10.89%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-21 19:03
Paddy Power🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.78%EV -7.23%E -6.18%K -42.51%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV -4.27%E -0.356%K -0.388%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.45%EV -4.53%E -0.604%K -0.697%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-21 19:05
PlayUp🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.40%EV -5.64%E -4.74%K -29.69%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.77%EV -4.27%E -0.356%K -0.388%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.82%EV -14.07%E -2.09%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-21 19:20
SportsBet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 79.91%EV -8.02%E -6.91%K -50.13%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.73%EV -4.27%E -0.356%K -0.388%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -4.53%E -0.604%K -0.697%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-21 19:05
Betr (AU)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.00%EV -4.85%E -4.04%K -24.24%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.14%EV -8.26%E -0.718%K -0.787%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.87%EV -14.07%E -2.09%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-21 18:50
1xBet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 79.48%EV -3.26%E -2.67%K -14.83%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.81%EV -12.25%E -1.11%K -1.22%G +0.000%8.28I 12.08%NM 11.71%EV +5.40%E +0.652%K +0.742%G +0.040%3.1%2026-04-21 19:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 78.11%EV -1.68%E -1.35%K -6.99%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.80%EV -12.25%E -1.11%K -1.22%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.09%EV -5.80%E -0.784%K -0.906%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-21 19:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.80%EV -4.85%E -4.04%K -24.24%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.60%EV -12.25%E -1.11%K -1.22%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.61%EV -4.53%E -0.604%K -0.697%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-21 19:20
Bovada🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.94%EV -5.64%E -4.74%K -29.69%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -12.25%E -1.11%K -1.22%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -4.53%E -0.604%K -0.697%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-21 19:11
BetUS🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.94%EV -5.64%E -4.74%K -29.69%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -12.25%E -1.11%K -1.22%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -4.53%E -0.604%K -0.697%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-21 19:05
William Hill🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.09%EV -4.85%E -4.04%K -24.24%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.52%EV -12.25%E -1.11%K -1.22%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -10.89%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-21 18:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.09%EV -4.85%E -4.04%K -24.24%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.52%EV -12.25%E -1.11%K -1.22%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -10.89%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-21 18:50
FanDuel🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.08%EV -6.43%E -5.45%K -35.75%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.48%EV -12.25%E -1.11%K -1.22%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.44%EV -4.53%E -0.604%K -0.697%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-21 19:05
Bet Right🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.30%EV -4.85%E -4.04%K -24.24%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.43%EV -12.25%E -1.11%K -1.22%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -17.26%E -2.65%K -3.14%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-21 19:05
Fliff🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 78.96%EV -8.02%E -6.91%K -50.13%G +0.000%10.90I 9.17%NM 8.40%EV -13.05%E -1.20%K -1.32%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.63%EV -7.71%E -1.06%K -1.23%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-21 19:25
Winamax (DE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 79.10%EV -4.85%E -4.04%K -24.24%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.04%EV -16.24%E -1.55%K -1.71%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.86%EV +1.84%E +0.230%K +0.262%G +0.005%5.4%2026-04-21 19:25
NetBet (FR)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.28%EV -5.64%E -4.74%K -29.69%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.87%EV -16.24%E -1.55%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.85%EV -7.71%E -1.06%K -1.23%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-21 19:25
Betway🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.14%EV -3.26%E -2.67%K -14.83%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.41%EV -20.22%E -2.02%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV -10.89%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-21 18:40
Winamax (FR)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.27%EV -5.64%E -4.74%K -29.69%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -20.22%E -2.02%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.42%EV -4.53%E -0.604%K -0.697%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-21 19:20
BoyleSports🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 77.73%EV -6.43%E -5.45%K -35.75%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%EV -20.22%E -2.02%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.10%EV -10.89%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-21 19:14
Coral🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.45%EV -3.26%E -2.67%K -14.83%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -24.21%E -2.55%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.60%EV -4.53%E -0.604%K -0.697%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-21 19:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.45%EV -3.26%E -2.67%K -14.83%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -24.21%E -2.55%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.60%EV -4.53%E -0.604%K -0.697%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-21 18:40
Neds🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.91%EV -3.26%E -2.67%K -14.83%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.14%EV -26.21%E -2.83%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.94%EV -7.71%E -1.06%K -1.23%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-21 18:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.91%EV -3.26%E -2.67%K -14.83%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.14%EV -26.21%E -2.83%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.94%EV -7.71%E -1.06%K -1.23%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-21 18:40
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.22I 81.97%NM 81.78%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.88%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.34%0.2%2026-04-21 19:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.22I 81.97%NM 81.57%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.86%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.57%0.5%2026-04-21 19:25
Smarkets1.22I 81.97%NM 81.56%14.49I 6.90%NM 6.87%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.57%0.5%2026-04-21 19:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.22I 81.97%NM 81.14%14.00I 7.14%NM 7.07%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.79%1.0%2026-04-21 19:25
Matchbook1.21I 82.64%NM 81.69%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.82%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.49%1.2%2026-04-21 19:25
Kalshi1.20I 83.33%NM 82.24%14.29I 7.00%NM 6.91%9.09I 11.00%NM 10.86%1.3%2026-04-21 19:25