Language:English
Atlético Madrid v Málaga
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Atlético Madrid (Local)
Prediction 72.51%1.38fair odd
EV -3.56%
Edge -2.68%
Kelly -10.78%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.33
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.99%72.42%72.54%74.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.171.291.301.3385.47%77.51%76.92%75.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Málaga (Visit)
Prediction 9.35%10.69fair odd
EV +8.50%
Edge +0.733%
Kelly +0.802%
Growth +0.068%
assuming max odds 11.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.18%9.58%9.27%13.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.759.249.5011.6014.81%10.82%10.53%8.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 18.13%5.51fair odd
EV +1.55%
Edge +0.276%
Kelly +0.336%
Growth +0.005%
assuming max odds 5.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.70%18.00%18.19%19.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.705.255.255.6021.28%19.05%19.05%17.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Atlético Madrid (Local): 72.51%; Málaga (Visit): 9.35%; Draw: 18.13%. For Málaga (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.69. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 11.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.50%.
Sportsbook Odds (45 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 73.93%EV -3.56%E -2.68%K -10.78%G +0.000% | 11.60I 8.62%NM 8.48%EV +8.50%E +0.733%K +0.802%G +0.068% | 5.59I 17.89%NM 17.59%EV +1.37%E +0.244%K +0.297%G +0.004% | 1.7% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.96%EV -5.01%E -3.82%K -16.15%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.42%EV +7.57%E +0.658%K +0.721%G +0.055% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.62%EV -0.267%E -0.049%K -0.059%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-07-14 12:59 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.54%EV -5.01%E -3.82%K -16.15%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.26%EV +7.57%E +0.658%K +0.721%G +0.055% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 19.20%EV -10.24%E -2.07%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-14 09:18 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.54%EV -5.01%E -3.82%K -16.15%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.26%EV +7.57%E +0.658%K +0.721%G +0.055% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 19.20%EV -10.24%E -2.07%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.07%EV -7.91%E -6.23%K -29.29%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.18%EV +7.57%E +0.658%K +0.721%G +0.055% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.75%EV -3.89%E -0.735%K -0.905%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-14 09:20 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.56%EV -5.73%E -4.41%K -19.11%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.58%EV +2.89%E +0.263%K +0.289%G +0.008% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.87%EV -9.33%E -1.87%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-06 15:24 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.56%EV -5.73%E -4.41%K -19.11%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.58%EV +2.89%E +0.263%K +0.289%G +0.008% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.87%EV -9.33%E -1.87%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.56%EV -5.73%E -4.41%K -19.11%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.58%EV +2.89%E +0.263%K +0.289%G +0.008% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.87%EV -9.33%E -1.87%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.33%EV -9.36%E -7.49%K -37.44%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV +2.89%E +0.263%K +0.289%G +0.008% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -9.33%E -1.87%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.63%EV -9.36%E -7.49%K -37.44%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.25%EV +2.89%E +0.263%K +0.289%G +0.008% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.11%EV -13.87%E -2.92%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-07-24 07:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.42%EV -6.46%E -5.01%K -22.27%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.90%EV -1.79%E -0.170%K -0.188%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.68%EV -9.33%E -1.87%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-18 04:14 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.04%EV -9.36%E -7.49%K -37.44%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.70%EV -1.79%E -0.170%K -0.188%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.26%EV -9.33%E -1.87%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-07-14 09:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.04%EV -9.36%E -7.49%K -37.44%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.70%EV -1.79%E -0.170%K -0.188%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.26%EV -9.33%E -1.87%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-07-14 09:18 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.04%EV -9.36%E -7.49%K -37.44%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.70%EV -1.79%E -0.170%K -0.188%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.26%EV -9.33%E -1.87%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.10%EV -6.46%E -5.01%K -22.27%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.30%EV -6.46%E -0.646%K -0.718%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -9.33%E -1.87%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-14 09:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.41%EV -7.91%E -6.23%K -29.29%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.20%EV -6.46%E -0.646%K -0.718%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.39%EV -9.33%E -1.87%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-07-14 09:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 73.64%EV -10.08%E -8.13%K -42.02%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.13%EV -6.46%E -0.646%K -0.718%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.23%EV -3.89%E -0.735%K -0.905%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.21%EV -11.53%E -9.45%K -52.43%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.93%EV -6.46%E -0.646%K -0.718%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.86%EV -9.33%E -1.87%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-07-14 09:18 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.26%EV -5.01%E -3.82%K -16.15%G +0.000% | 9.75I 10.26%NM 9.71%EV -8.80%E -0.903%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.03%EV -4.80%E -0.914%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-13 16:34 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.56%EV -5.01%E -3.82%K -16.15%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.00%EV -11.14%E -1.17%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.45I 18.35%NM 17.44%EV -1.17%E -0.215%K -0.264%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-18 23:57 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.23%EV -5.73%E -4.41%K -19.11%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.88%EV -11.14%E -1.17%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.89%EV -4.80%E -0.914%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-13 16:34 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.23%EV -5.73%E -4.41%K -19.11%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.88%EV -11.14%E -1.17%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.89%EV -4.80%E -0.914%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-13 16:34 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.23%EV -5.73%E -4.41%K -19.11%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.88%EV -11.14%E -1.17%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.89%EV -4.80%E -0.914%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-13 16:34 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.23%EV -5.73%E -4.41%K -19.11%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.88%EV -11.14%E -1.17%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.89%EV -4.80%E -0.914%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-13 16:34 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.16%EV -7.18%E -5.61%K -25.66%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.72%EV -11.14%E -1.17%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.11%EV -7.52%E -1.47%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 73.04%EV -8.63%E -6.85%K -33.21%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.23%EV -15.82%E -1.76%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -0.267%E -0.049%K -0.059%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 71.96%EV -11.53%E -9.45%K -52.43%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.75%EV -15.82%E -1.76%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.29%EV -12.96%E -2.70%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 72.52%EV -15.16%E -12.96%K -89.18%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.43%EV -15.82%E -1.76%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 18.05%EV -14.77%E -3.14%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 17.9% | 2026-07-17 04:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.53%EV -5.01%E -3.82%K -16.15%G +0.000% | 8.91I 11.22%NM 10.52%EV -16.66%E -1.87%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 5.22I 19.16%NM 17.95%EV -5.34%E -1.02%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-13 08:15 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.31%EV -9.36%E -7.49%K -37.44%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.63%EV -20.49%E -2.41%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.05%EV -3.89%E -0.735%K -0.905%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.84%EV -4.28%E -3.24%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -29.85%E -3.98%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.70%EV +1.55%E +0.276%K +0.336%G +0.005% | 6.9% | 2026-07-02 22:29 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.84%EV -4.28%E -3.24%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -29.85%E -3.98%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.70%EV +1.55%E +0.276%K +0.336%G +0.005% | 6.9% | 2026-07-02 22:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.84%EV -4.28%E -3.24%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -29.85%E -3.98%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.70%EV +1.55%E +0.276%K +0.336%G +0.005% | 6.9% | 2026-07-02 22:30 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.84%EV -4.28%E -3.24%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -29.85%E -3.98%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.70%EV +1.55%E +0.276%K +0.336%G +0.005% | 6.9% | 2026-07-02 22:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.84%EV -4.28%E -3.24%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -29.85%E -3.98%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.70%EV +1.55%E +0.276%K +0.336%G +0.005% | 6.9% | 2026-07-02 22:45 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.84%EV -4.28%E -3.24%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -29.85%E -3.98%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.70%EV +1.55%E +0.276%K +0.336%G +0.005% | 6.9% | 2026-07-02 23:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.84%EV -4.28%E -3.24%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -29.85%E -3.98%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.70%EV +1.55%E +0.276%K +0.336%G +0.005% | 6.9% | 2026-07-02 23:09 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.84%EV -4.28%E -3.24%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -29.85%E -3.98%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.70%EV +1.55%E +0.276%K +0.336%G +0.005% | 6.9% | 2026-07-02 23:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.84%EV -4.28%E -3.24%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -29.85%E -3.98%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.70%EV +1.55%E +0.276%K +0.336%G +0.005% | 6.9% | 2026-07-02 23:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.84%EV -4.28%E -3.24%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -29.85%E -3.98%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.70%EV +1.55%E +0.276%K +0.336%G +0.005% | 6.9% | 2026-07-02 23:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.84%EV -4.28%E -3.24%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -29.85%E -3.98%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.70%EV +1.55%E +0.276%K +0.336%G +0.005% | 6.9% | 2026-07-02 23:10 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.84%EV -4.28%E -3.24%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -29.85%E -3.98%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.70%EV +1.55%E +0.276%K +0.336%G +0.005% | 6.9% | 2026-07-03 02:20 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 68.99%EV -4.28%E -3.24%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.49%EV -36.86%E -5.46%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.51%EV -5.71%E -1.10%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-07-16 17:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.08%EV -5.73%E -4.41%K -19.11%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.31%EV -36.86%E -5.46%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.61%EV -7.52%E -1.47%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-07-02 22:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.08%EV -5.73%E -4.41%K -19.11%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.31%EV -36.86%E -5.46%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.61%EV -7.52%E -1.47%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-07-02 22:30 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.83% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.48% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.69% | 2.8% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.83% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.48% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.69% | 2.8% | 2026-07-14 09:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.83% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.48% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.69% | 2.8% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.63% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.35% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.02% | 4.7% | 2026-07-14 05:30 |