语言:简体中文
Atlético Madrid v Málaga
收盘赔率 — 按所选模型，根据开赛前最后记录的赔率计算得出的概率和期望值。比赛已经开始，因此这些并非实时数据。 依据所有已完赛结果评估各模型概率预测的可靠性 →
胜负盘
Atlético Madrid (主队)
预测 72.51%1.38公平赔率
EV -3.56%
优势 -2.68%
Kelly -10.78%
增长率 +0.000%
假设最高赔率为 1.33
博彩公司预测分布
68.99%72.42%72.54%74.07%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
1.171.291.301.3385.47%77.51%76.92%75.19%最小值均值中位数最大值
Málaga (客队)
预测 9.35%10.69公平赔率
EV +8.50%
优势 +0.733%
Kelly +0.802%
增长率 +0.068%
假设最高赔率为 11.60
博彩公司预测分布
8.18%9.58%9.27%13.49%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
6.759.249.5011.6014.81%10.82%10.53%8.62%最小值均值中位数最大值
平局
预测 18.13%5.51公平赔率
EV +1.55%
优势 +0.276%
Kelly +0.336%
增长率 +0.005%
假设最高赔率为 5.60
博彩公司预测分布
16.70%18.00%18.19%19.20%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
4.705.255.255.6021.28%19.05%19.05%17.86%最小值均值中位数最大值
按开赛前最后一组赔率，四分位数间均值 (精选名单)对胜负盘的概率估计为：Atlético Madrid (主队)：72.51%；Málaga (客队)：9.35%；平局：18.13%。 对于“Málaga (客队)”，该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为10.69。 当时有10家博彩公司提供高于该水平的收盘赔率；最佳赔率为11.60，对应+8.50%的正期望值。
博彩公司赔率 (45 家博彩公司)
我们与任何博彩公司均无关联，也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。
| 博彩公司 | 主队 | 客队 ▼ | 平局 | 利润率 | 更新时间 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 73.93%EV -3.56%E -2.68%K -10.78%G +0.000% | 11.60I 8.62%NM 8.48%EV +8.50%E +0.733%K +0.802%G +0.068% | 5.59I 17.89%NM 17.59%EV +1.37%E +0.244%K +0.297%G +0.004% | 1.7% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.96%EV -5.01%E -3.82%K -16.15%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.42%EV +7.57%E +0.658%K +0.721%G +0.055% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.62%EV -0.267%E -0.049%K -0.059%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-07-14 12:59 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.54%EV -5.01%E -3.82%K -16.15%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.26%EV +7.57%E +0.658%K +0.721%G +0.055% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 19.20%EV -10.24%E -2.07%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-14 09:18 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.54%EV -5.01%E -3.82%K -16.15%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.26%EV +7.57%E +0.658%K +0.721%G +0.055% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 19.20%EV -10.24%E -2.07%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.07%EV -7.91%E -6.23%K -29.29%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.18%EV +7.57%E +0.658%K +0.721%G +0.055% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.75%EV -3.89%E -0.735%K -0.905%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-14 09:20 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.56%EV -5.73%E -4.41%K -19.11%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.58%EV +2.89%E +0.263%K +0.289%G +0.008% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.87%EV -9.33%E -1.87%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-06 15:24 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.56%EV -5.73%E -4.41%K -19.11%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.58%EV +2.89%E +0.263%K +0.289%G +0.008% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.87%EV -9.33%E -1.87%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.56%EV -5.73%E -4.41%K -19.11%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.58%EV +2.89%E +0.263%K +0.289%G +0.008% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.87%EV -9.33%E -1.87%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.33%EV -9.36%E -7.49%K -37.44%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV +2.89%E +0.263%K +0.289%G +0.008% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -9.33%E -1.87%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.63%EV -9.36%E -7.49%K -37.44%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.25%EV +2.89%E +0.263%K +0.289%G +0.008% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.11%EV -13.87%E -2.92%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-07-24 07:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.42%EV -6.46%E -5.01%K -22.27%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.90%EV -1.79%E -0.170%K -0.188%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.68%EV -9.33%E -1.87%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-18 04:14 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.04%EV -9.36%E -7.49%K -37.44%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.70%EV -1.79%E -0.170%K -0.188%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.26%EV -9.33%E -1.87%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-07-14 09:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.04%EV -9.36%E -7.49%K -37.44%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.70%EV -1.79%E -0.170%K -0.188%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.26%EV -9.33%E -1.87%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-07-14 09:18 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.04%EV -9.36%E -7.49%K -37.44%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.70%EV -1.79%E -0.170%K -0.188%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.26%EV -9.33%E -1.87%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.10%EV -6.46%E -5.01%K -22.27%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.30%EV -6.46%E -0.646%K -0.718%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -9.33%E -1.87%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-14 09:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.41%EV -7.91%E -6.23%K -29.29%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.20%EV -6.46%E -0.646%K -0.718%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.39%EV -9.33%E -1.87%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-07-14 09:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 73.64%EV -10.08%E -8.13%K -42.02%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.13%EV -6.46%E -0.646%K -0.718%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.23%EV -3.89%E -0.735%K -0.905%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.21%EV -11.53%E -9.45%K -52.43%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.93%EV -6.46%E -0.646%K -0.718%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.86%EV -9.33%E -1.87%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-07-14 09:18 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.26%EV -5.01%E -3.82%K -16.15%G +0.000% | 9.75I 10.26%NM 9.71%EV -8.80%E -0.903%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.03%EV -4.80%E -0.914%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-13 16:34 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.56%EV -5.01%E -3.82%K -16.15%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.00%EV -11.14%E -1.17%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.45I 18.35%NM 17.44%EV -1.17%E -0.215%K -0.264%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-18 23:57 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.23%EV -5.73%E -4.41%K -19.11%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.88%EV -11.14%E -1.17%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.89%EV -4.80%E -0.914%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-13 16:34 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.23%EV -5.73%E -4.41%K -19.11%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.88%EV -11.14%E -1.17%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.89%EV -4.80%E -0.914%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-13 16:34 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.23%EV -5.73%E -4.41%K -19.11%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.88%EV -11.14%E -1.17%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.89%EV -4.80%E -0.914%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-13 16:34 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.23%EV -5.73%E -4.41%K -19.11%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.88%EV -11.14%E -1.17%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.89%EV -4.80%E -0.914%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-13 16:34 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.16%EV -7.18%E -5.61%K -25.66%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.72%EV -11.14%E -1.17%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.11%EV -7.52%E -1.47%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 73.04%EV -8.63%E -6.85%K -33.21%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.23%EV -15.82%E -1.76%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -0.267%E -0.049%K -0.059%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 71.96%EV -11.53%E -9.45%K -52.43%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.75%EV -15.82%E -1.76%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.29%EV -12.96%E -2.70%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 72.52%EV -15.16%E -12.96%K -89.18%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.43%EV -15.82%E -1.76%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 18.05%EV -14.77%E -3.14%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 17.9% | 2026-07-17 04:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.53%EV -5.01%E -3.82%K -16.15%G +0.000% | 8.91I 11.22%NM 10.52%EV -16.66%E -1.87%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 5.22I 19.16%NM 17.95%EV -5.34%E -1.02%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-13 08:15 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.31%EV -9.36%E -7.49%K -37.44%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.63%EV -20.49%E -2.41%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.05%EV -3.89%E -0.735%K -0.905%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.84%EV -4.28%E -3.24%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -29.85%E -3.98%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.70%EV +1.55%E +0.276%K +0.336%G +0.005% | 6.9% | 2026-07-02 22:29 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.84%EV -4.28%E -3.24%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -29.85%E -3.98%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.70%EV +1.55%E +0.276%K +0.336%G +0.005% | 6.9% | 2026-07-02 22:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.84%EV -4.28%E -3.24%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -29.85%E -3.98%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.70%EV +1.55%E +0.276%K +0.336%G +0.005% | 6.9% | 2026-07-02 22:30 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.84%EV -4.28%E -3.24%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -29.85%E -3.98%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.70%EV +1.55%E +0.276%K +0.336%G +0.005% | 6.9% | 2026-07-02 22:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.84%EV -4.28%E -3.24%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -29.85%E -3.98%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.70%EV +1.55%E +0.276%K +0.336%G +0.005% | 6.9% | 2026-07-02 22:45 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.84%EV -4.28%E -3.24%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -29.85%E -3.98%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.70%EV +1.55%E +0.276%K +0.336%G +0.005% | 6.9% | 2026-07-02 23:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.84%EV -4.28%E -3.24%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -29.85%E -3.98%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.70%EV +1.55%E +0.276%K +0.336%G +0.005% | 6.9% | 2026-07-02 23:09 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.84%EV -4.28%E -3.24%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -29.85%E -3.98%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.70%EV +1.55%E +0.276%K +0.336%G +0.005% | 6.9% | 2026-07-02 23:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.84%EV -4.28%E -3.24%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -29.85%E -3.98%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.70%EV +1.55%E +0.276%K +0.336%G +0.005% | 6.9% | 2026-07-02 23:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.84%EV -4.28%E -3.24%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -29.85%E -3.98%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.70%EV +1.55%E +0.276%K +0.336%G +0.005% | 6.9% | 2026-07-02 23:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.84%EV -4.28%E -3.24%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -29.85%E -3.98%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.70%EV +1.55%E +0.276%K +0.336%G +0.005% | 6.9% | 2026-07-02 23:10 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.84%EV -4.28%E -3.24%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -29.85%E -3.98%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.70%EV +1.55%E +0.276%K +0.336%G +0.005% | 6.9% | 2026-07-03 02:20 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 68.99%EV -4.28%E -3.24%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.49%EV -36.86%E -5.46%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.51%EV -5.71%E -1.10%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-07-16 17:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.08%EV -5.73%E -4.41%K -19.11%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.31%EV -36.86%E -5.46%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.61%EV -7.52%E -1.47%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-07-02 22:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.08%EV -5.73%E -4.41%K -19.11%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.31%EV -36.86%E -5.46%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.61%EV -7.52%E -1.47%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-07-02 22:30 |
利润率 = 利润率（超额概率） · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率
更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间，因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变，并不代表数据已经失效。通常，约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除；只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时，才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。
博彩交易所 (4)
| 博彩公司 | 主队 | 客队 | 平局 | 利润率 ▲ | 更新时间 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.83% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.48% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.69% | 2.8% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.83% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.48% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.69% | 2.8% | 2026-07-14 09:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.83% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.48% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.69% | 2.8% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.63% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.35% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.02% | 4.7% | 2026-07-14 05:30 |