Langue:Français
Atlético Madrid v Málaga
Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →
Résultat du match
Atlético Madrid (Local)
Prévision 72.51%1.38cote équitable
EV -3.56%
Avantage -2.68%
Kelly -10.78%
Croissance +0.000%
avec la cote maximale 1.33
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
68.99%72.42%72.54%74.07%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
1.171.291.301.3385.47%77.51%76.92%75.19%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Málaga (Visiteur)
Prévision 9.35%10.69cote équitable
EV +8.50%
Avantage +0.733%
Kelly +0.802%
Croissance +0.068%
avec la cote maximale 11.60
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
8.18%9.58%9.27%13.49%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
6.759.249.5011.6014.81%10.82%10.53%8.62%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Match nul
Prévision 18.13%5.51cote équitable
EV +1.55%
Avantage +0.276%
Kelly +0.336%
Croissance +0.005%
avec la cote maximale 5.60
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
16.70%18.00%18.19%19.20%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
4.705.255.255.6021.28%19.05%19.05%17.86%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Aux dernières cotes avant le début, Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée) estimait pour Résultat du match : Atlético Madrid (Local) : 72.51% ; Málaga (Visiteur) : 9.35% ; Match nul : 18.13%. Pour Málaga (Visiteur), cette estimation équivalait à une cote décimale juste de 10.69. 10 opérateurs proposaient une cote de clôture supérieure à ce seuil ; la meilleure était 11.60, soit une espérance positive de +8.50%.
Cotes des opérateurs (45 opérateurs)
Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.
| Opérateur | Local | Visiteur ▼ | Match nul | Marge | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 73.93%EV -3.56%E -2.68%K -10.78%G +0.000% | 11.60I 8.62%NM 8.48%EV +8.50%E +0.733%K +0.802%G +0.068% | 5.59I 17.89%NM 17.59%EV +1.37%E +0.244%K +0.297%G +0.004% | 1.7% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.96%EV -5.01%E -3.82%K -16.15%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.42%EV +7.57%E +0.658%K +0.721%G +0.055% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.62%EV -0.267%E -0.049%K -0.059%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-07-14 12:59 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.54%EV -5.01%E -3.82%K -16.15%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.26%EV +7.57%E +0.658%K +0.721%G +0.055% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 19.20%EV -10.24%E -2.07%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-14 09:18 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.54%EV -5.01%E -3.82%K -16.15%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.26%EV +7.57%E +0.658%K +0.721%G +0.055% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 19.20%EV -10.24%E -2.07%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.07%EV -7.91%E -6.23%K -29.29%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.18%EV +7.57%E +0.658%K +0.721%G +0.055% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.75%EV -3.89%E -0.735%K -0.905%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-14 09:20 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.56%EV -5.73%E -4.41%K -19.11%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.58%EV +2.89%E +0.263%K +0.289%G +0.008% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.87%EV -9.33%E -1.87%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-06 15:24 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.56%EV -5.73%E -4.41%K -19.11%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.58%EV +2.89%E +0.263%K +0.289%G +0.008% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.87%EV -9.33%E -1.87%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.56%EV -5.73%E -4.41%K -19.11%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.58%EV +2.89%E +0.263%K +0.289%G +0.008% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.87%EV -9.33%E -1.87%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.33%EV -9.36%E -7.49%K -37.44%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV +2.89%E +0.263%K +0.289%G +0.008% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -9.33%E -1.87%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.63%EV -9.36%E -7.49%K -37.44%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.25%EV +2.89%E +0.263%K +0.289%G +0.008% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.11%EV -13.87%E -2.92%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-07-24 07:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.42%EV -6.46%E -5.01%K -22.27%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.90%EV -1.79%E -0.170%K -0.188%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.68%EV -9.33%E -1.87%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-18 04:14 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.04%EV -9.36%E -7.49%K -37.44%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.70%EV -1.79%E -0.170%K -0.188%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.26%EV -9.33%E -1.87%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-07-14 09:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.04%EV -9.36%E -7.49%K -37.44%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.70%EV -1.79%E -0.170%K -0.188%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.26%EV -9.33%E -1.87%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-07-14 09:18 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.04%EV -9.36%E -7.49%K -37.44%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.70%EV -1.79%E -0.170%K -0.188%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.26%EV -9.33%E -1.87%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.10%EV -6.46%E -5.01%K -22.27%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.30%EV -6.46%E -0.646%K -0.718%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -9.33%E -1.87%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-14 09:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.41%EV -7.91%E -6.23%K -29.29%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.20%EV -6.46%E -0.646%K -0.718%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.39%EV -9.33%E -1.87%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-07-14 09:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 73.64%EV -10.08%E -8.13%K -42.02%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.13%EV -6.46%E -0.646%K -0.718%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.23%EV -3.89%E -0.735%K -0.905%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.21%EV -11.53%E -9.45%K -52.43%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.93%EV -6.46%E -0.646%K -0.718%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.86%EV -9.33%E -1.87%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-07-14 09:18 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.26%EV -5.01%E -3.82%K -16.15%G +0.000% | 9.75I 10.26%NM 9.71%EV -8.80%E -0.903%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.03%EV -4.80%E -0.914%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-13 16:34 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.56%EV -5.01%E -3.82%K -16.15%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.00%EV -11.14%E -1.17%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.45I 18.35%NM 17.44%EV -1.17%E -0.215%K -0.264%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-18 23:57 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.23%EV -5.73%E -4.41%K -19.11%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.88%EV -11.14%E -1.17%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.89%EV -4.80%E -0.914%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-13 16:34 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.23%EV -5.73%E -4.41%K -19.11%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.88%EV -11.14%E -1.17%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.89%EV -4.80%E -0.914%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-13 16:34 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.23%EV -5.73%E -4.41%K -19.11%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.88%EV -11.14%E -1.17%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.89%EV -4.80%E -0.914%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-13 16:34 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.23%EV -5.73%E -4.41%K -19.11%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.88%EV -11.14%E -1.17%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.89%EV -4.80%E -0.914%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-13 16:34 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.16%EV -7.18%E -5.61%K -25.66%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.72%EV -11.14%E -1.17%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.11%EV -7.52%E -1.47%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 73.04%EV -8.63%E -6.85%K -33.21%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.23%EV -15.82%E -1.76%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -0.267%E -0.049%K -0.059%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 71.96%EV -11.53%E -9.45%K -52.43%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.75%EV -15.82%E -1.76%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.29%EV -12.96%E -2.70%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 72.52%EV -15.16%E -12.96%K -89.18%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.43%EV -15.82%E -1.76%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 18.05%EV -14.77%E -3.14%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 17.9% | 2026-07-17 04:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.53%EV -5.01%E -3.82%K -16.15%G +0.000% | 8.91I 11.22%NM 10.52%EV -16.66%E -1.87%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 5.22I 19.16%NM 17.95%EV -5.34%E -1.02%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-13 08:15 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.31%EV -9.36%E -7.49%K -37.44%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.63%EV -20.49%E -2.41%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.05%EV -3.89%E -0.735%K -0.905%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.84%EV -4.28%E -3.24%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -29.85%E -3.98%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.70%EV +1.55%E +0.276%K +0.336%G +0.005% | 6.9% | 2026-07-02 22:29 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.84%EV -4.28%E -3.24%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -29.85%E -3.98%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.70%EV +1.55%E +0.276%K +0.336%G +0.005% | 6.9% | 2026-07-02 22:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.84%EV -4.28%E -3.24%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -29.85%E -3.98%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.70%EV +1.55%E +0.276%K +0.336%G +0.005% | 6.9% | 2026-07-02 22:30 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.84%EV -4.28%E -3.24%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -29.85%E -3.98%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.70%EV +1.55%E +0.276%K +0.336%G +0.005% | 6.9% | 2026-07-02 22:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.84%EV -4.28%E -3.24%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -29.85%E -3.98%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.70%EV +1.55%E +0.276%K +0.336%G +0.005% | 6.9% | 2026-07-02 22:45 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.84%EV -4.28%E -3.24%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -29.85%E -3.98%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.70%EV +1.55%E +0.276%K +0.336%G +0.005% | 6.9% | 2026-07-02 23:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.84%EV -4.28%E -3.24%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -29.85%E -3.98%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.70%EV +1.55%E +0.276%K +0.336%G +0.005% | 6.9% | 2026-07-02 23:09 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.84%EV -4.28%E -3.24%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -29.85%E -3.98%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.70%EV +1.55%E +0.276%K +0.336%G +0.005% | 6.9% | 2026-07-02 23:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.84%EV -4.28%E -3.24%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -29.85%E -3.98%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.70%EV +1.55%E +0.276%K +0.336%G +0.005% | 6.9% | 2026-07-02 23:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.84%EV -4.28%E -3.24%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -29.85%E -3.98%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.70%EV +1.55%E +0.276%K +0.336%G +0.005% | 6.9% | 2026-07-02 23:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.84%EV -4.28%E -3.24%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -29.85%E -3.98%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.70%EV +1.55%E +0.276%K +0.336%G +0.005% | 6.9% | 2026-07-02 23:10 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.84%EV -4.28%E -3.24%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -29.85%E -3.98%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.70%EV +1.55%E +0.276%K +0.336%G +0.005% | 6.9% | 2026-07-03 02:20 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 68.99%EV -4.28%E -3.24%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.49%EV -36.86%E -5.46%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.51%EV -5.71%E -1.10%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-07-16 17:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.08%EV -5.73%E -4.41%K -19.11%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.31%EV -36.86%E -5.46%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.61%EV -7.52%E -1.47%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-07-02 22:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.08%EV -5.73%E -4.41%K -19.11%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.31%EV -36.86%E -5.46%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.61%EV -7.52%E -1.47%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-07-02 22:30 |
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu
Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.
Plateformes d’échange (4)
| Opérateur | Local | Visiteur | Match nul | Marge ▲ | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.83% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.48% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.69% | 2.8% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.83% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.48% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.69% | 2.8% | 2026-07-14 09:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.83% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.48% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.69% | 2.8% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.63% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.35% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.02% | 4.7% | 2026-07-14 05:30 |