The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Alavés v Getafe

2026-08-16 19:00 UTC — La Liga - Spain

Head to Head

47 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alavés (Local)

Prediction 39.97%2.50fair odd
EV -1.68%
Edge -0.685%
Kelly -1.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.62%39.96%40.01%40.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.122.322.302.4647.17%43.18%43.48%40.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Getafe (Visit)

Prediction 27.14%3.68fair odd
EV -2.29%
Edge -0.635%
Kelly -0.879%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.49%27.16%27.03%28.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.403.403.6031.25%29.42%29.41%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 32.89%3.04fair odd
EV -0.667%
Edge -0.221%
Kelly -0.330%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.57%32.88%32.96%34.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.572.852.903.0238.91%35.04%34.48%33.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Alavés (Local): 39.97%; Getafe (Visit): 27.14%; Draw: 32.89%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.04. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.02, with an expected value of -0.667%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 40.03%EV -1.68%E -0.685%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.36%EV -2.29%E -0.635%K -0.879%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 32.61%EV -0.667%E -0.221%K -0.330%G +0.000%1.5%2026-07-14 09:19
Marathon Bet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 40.03%EV -3.28%E -1.36%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 27.36%EV -3.91%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 32.61%EV -2.31%E -0.778%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-14 09:19
Bovada🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 39.28%EV -3.68%E -1.53%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.67%EV -3.64%E -1.03%K -1.43%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.05%EV -8.56%E -3.08%K -4.81%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-14 05:21
Tipico (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.33%EV -4.08%E -1.70%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -5.00%E -1.43%K -2.00%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -7.90%E -2.82%K -4.39%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-12 20:54
DraftKings🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -4.08%E -1.70%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.80%EV -5.00%E -1.43%K -2.00%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -9.55%E -3.47%K -5.46%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-21 13:14
Codere (IT)🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 39.81%EV -4.48%E -1.88%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -3.64%E -1.03%K -1.43%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.39%EV -6.26%E -2.20%K -3.38%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-14 09:19
Pinnacle🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 39.46%EV -4.48%E -1.88%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.49%EV -3.37%E -0.947%K -1.32%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 34.05%EV -8.89%E -3.21%K -5.02%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-06 08:15
betfred_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.11%EV -4.88%E -2.05%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.07%EV -7.71%E -2.27%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -1.33%E -0.442%K -0.663%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-06 07:10
Betsson🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.92%EV -4.88%E -2.05%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.54%EV -6.36%E -1.84%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.54%EV -3.96%E -1.35%K -2.06%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-11 12:25
NordicBet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.92%EV -4.88%E -2.05%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.54%EV -6.36%E -1.84%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.54%EV -3.96%E -1.35%K -2.06%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-11 12:23
Coral🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 40.09%EV -5.28%E -2.23%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.15%EV -5.00%E -1.43%K -2.00%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.76%EV -4.61%E -1.59%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-06 17:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.64%EV -5.28%E -2.23%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -7.71%E -2.27%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.73%EV -5.60%E -1.95%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-06 16:59
SportsBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.41%EV -6.08%E -2.59%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.93%EV -7.71%E -2.27%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -1.33%E -0.442%K -0.663%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-06 07:09
Betr (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -6.08%E -2.59%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.78%EV -7.71%E -2.27%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.02%EV -2.97%E -1.01%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-06 07:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.75%EV -6.08%E -2.59%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -7.71%E -2.27%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.78%EV -6.26%E -2.20%K -3.38%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-06 17:00
Neds🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.75%EV -6.08%E -2.59%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -7.71%E -2.27%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.78%EV -6.26%E -2.20%K -3.38%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-06 17:00
Everygame🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.19%EV -6.08%E -2.59%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.70%EV -6.36%E -1.84%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.11%EV -11.19%E -4.15%K -6.58%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-13 11:58
Virgin Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 38.62%EV -7.28%E -3.14%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.57%EV -11.79%E -3.63%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.81%EV -12.84%E -4.84%K -7.78%G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-27 08:02
TAB🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%EV -8.08%E -3.51%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -5.00%E -1.43%K -2.00%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -4.61%E -1.59%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-14 05:29
FanDuel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.71%EV -8.08%E -3.51%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -7.71%E -2.27%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -2.97%E -1.01%K -1.52%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-06 07:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -8.08%E -3.51%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -7.71%E -2.27%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -4.61%E -1.59%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-02 22:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -8.08%E -3.51%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -7.71%E -2.27%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -4.61%E -1.59%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-02 22:19
Svenska Spel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -8.08%E -3.51%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -7.71%E -2.27%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -4.61%E -1.59%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-02 22:19
Bally Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -8.08%E -3.51%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -7.71%E -2.27%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -4.61%E -1.59%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-02 22:40
betPARX🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -8.08%E -3.51%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -7.71%E -2.27%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -4.61%E -1.59%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-02 22:45
Casumo🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -8.08%E -3.51%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -7.71%E -2.27%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -4.61%E -1.59%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-02 23:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -8.08%E -3.51%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -7.71%E -2.27%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -4.61%E -1.59%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-02 23:09
Grosvenor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -8.08%E -3.51%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -7.71%E -2.27%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -4.61%E -1.59%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-02 23:10
Unibet (NL)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -8.08%E -3.51%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -7.71%E -2.27%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -4.61%E -1.59%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-02 23:10
Unibet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -8.08%E -3.51%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -7.71%E -2.27%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -4.61%E -1.59%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-02 23:10
TABtouch🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -8.08%E -3.51%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -7.71%E -2.27%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -4.61%E -1.59%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-02 23:10
BetRivers🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -8.08%E -3.51%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -7.71%E -2.27%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -4.61%E -1.59%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-03 02:20
PMU (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -8.08%E -3.51%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -7.71%E -2.27%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -4.61%E -1.59%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-16 17:30
Sky Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.16%EV -8.08%E -3.51%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -10.43%E -3.16%K -4.53%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.85%EV -4.61%E -1.59%K -2.43%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-06 07:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.16%EV -8.08%E -3.51%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -10.43%E -3.16%K -4.53%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.85%EV -4.61%E -1.59%K -2.43%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-09 08:39
Winamax (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -8.08%E -3.51%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.53%EV -9.07%E -2.71%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.36%EV -6.26%E -2.20%K -3.38%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-14 09:19
LeoVegas🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.87%EV -8.08%E -3.51%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.38%EV -9.07%E -2.71%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -7.90%E -2.82%K -4.39%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-11 23:39
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -8.08%E -3.51%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -7.71%E -2.27%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -9.55%E -3.47%K -5.46%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-14 09:20
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -8.08%E -3.51%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -7.71%E -2.27%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -9.55%E -3.47%K -5.46%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-04 02:35
betano_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -8.08%E -3.51%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -7.71%E -2.27%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -9.55%E -3.47%K -5.46%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-12 08:38
BoyleSports🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -10.08%E -4.48%K -8.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -10.43%E -3.16%K -4.53%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -4.61%E -1.59%K -2.43%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-05 11:35
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.60%EV -10.08%E -4.48%K -8.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -10.43%E -3.16%K -4.53%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.72%EV -5.27%E -1.83%K -2.80%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-06 07:10
Winamax (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.07%EV -10.08%E -4.48%K -8.06%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.74%EV -11.79%E -3.63%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.20%EV -7.90%E -2.82%K -4.39%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-14 09:19
LiveScore Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.28%EV -10.88%E -4.88%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.64%EV -11.79%E -3.63%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.08%EV -7.90%E -2.82%K -4.39%G +0.000%11.3%2026-07-02 22:20
Betclic (FR)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 40.27%EV -12.87%E -5.91%K -10.91%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 26.85%EV -11.24%E -3.44%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 32.88%EV -12.18%E -4.56%K -7.29%G +0.000%13.9%2026-07-14 09:19
Unibet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.85%EV -14.07%E -6.55%K -12.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.62%EV -10.43%E -3.16%K -4.53%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.53%EV -11.19%E -4.15%K -6.58%G +0.000%13.9%2026-07-14 09:19
NetBet (FR)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 40.20%EV -15.27%E -7.20%K -13.64%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.63%EV -13.14%E -4.11%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 33.16%EV -15.47%E -6.02%K -9.85%G +0.000%17.3%2026-07-11 05:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.34I 42.74%NM 40.85%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.49%2.84I 35.21%NM 33.66%4.6%2026-07-14 09:19
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.40I 41.67%NM 39.71%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.76%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.53%4.9%2026-07-13 11:59
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.40I 41.67%NM 39.71%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.76%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.53%4.9%2026-07-13 12:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.40I 41.67%NM 39.71%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.76%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.53%4.9%2026-07-13 11:59

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