Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Alavés v Getafe

Início: 2026-08-16 19:00 UTC

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

47 casas de apostas (13 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Alavés (Local)

Previsão 39.97%2.50odd justa
EV -1.68%
Vantagem -0.685%
Kelly -1.15%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.46

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
38.62%39.96%40.01%40.85%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.122.322.302.4647.17%43.18%43.48%40.65%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Getafe (Visitante)

Previsão 27.14%3.68odd justa
EV -2.29%
Vantagem -0.635%
Kelly -0.879%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.60

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
26.49%27.16%27.03%28.07%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.203.403.403.6031.25%29.42%29.41%27.78%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 32.89%3.04odd justa
EV -0.667%
Vantagem -0.221%
Kelly -0.330%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.02

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
31.57%32.88%32.96%34.11%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.572.852.903.0238.91%35.04%34.48%33.11%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Alavés (Local): 39.97%; Getafe (Visitante): 27.14%; Empate: 32.89%. Para Empate, essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.04. Nenhuma casa de apostas elegível oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível: as melhores eram 3.02, com valor esperado de -0.667%; não produziam valor esperado positivo.

Odds das casas de apostas (47 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
1xBet🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 40.03%EV -1.68%E -0.685%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.36%EV -2.29%E -0.635%K -0.879%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 32.61%EV -0.667%E -0.221%K -0.330%G +0.000%1.5%2026-07-14 09:19
Marathon Bet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 40.03%EV -3.28%E -1.36%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 27.36%EV -3.91%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 32.61%EV -2.31%E -0.778%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-14 09:19
Bovada🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 39.28%EV -3.68%E -1.53%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.67%EV -3.64%E -1.03%K -1.43%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.05%EV -8.56%E -3.08%K -4.81%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-14 05:21
Tipico (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.33%EV -4.08%E -1.70%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -5.00%E -1.43%K -2.00%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -7.90%E -2.82%K -4.39%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-12 20:54
DraftKings🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -4.08%E -1.70%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.80%EV -5.00%E -1.43%K -2.00%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -9.55%E -3.47%K -5.46%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-21 13:14
Codere (IT)🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 39.81%EV -4.48%E -1.88%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -3.64%E -1.03%K -1.43%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.39%EV -6.26%E -2.20%K -3.38%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-14 09:19
Pinnacle🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 39.46%EV -4.48%E -1.88%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.49%EV -3.37%E -0.947%K -1.32%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 34.05%EV -8.89%E -3.21%K -5.02%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-06 08:15
betfred_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.11%EV -4.88%E -2.05%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.07%EV -7.71%E -2.27%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -1.33%E -0.442%K -0.663%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-06 07:10
Betsson🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.92%EV -4.88%E -2.05%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.54%EV -6.36%E -1.84%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.54%EV -3.96%E -1.35%K -2.06%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-11 12:25
NordicBet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.92%EV -4.88%E -2.05%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.54%EV -6.36%E -1.84%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.54%EV -3.96%E -1.35%K -2.06%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-11 12:23
Coral🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 40.09%EV -5.28%E -2.23%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.15%EV -5.00%E -1.43%K -2.00%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.76%EV -4.61%E -1.59%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-06 17:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.64%EV -5.28%E -2.23%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -7.71%E -2.27%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.73%EV -5.60%E -1.95%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-06 16:59
SportsBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.41%EV -6.08%E -2.59%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.93%EV -7.71%E -2.27%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -1.33%E -0.442%K -0.663%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-06 07:09
Betr (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -6.08%E -2.59%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.78%EV -7.71%E -2.27%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.02%EV -2.97%E -1.01%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-06 07:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.75%EV -6.08%E -2.59%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -7.71%E -2.27%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.78%EV -6.26%E -2.20%K -3.38%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-06 17:00
Neds🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.75%EV -6.08%E -2.59%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -7.71%E -2.27%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.78%EV -6.26%E -2.20%K -3.38%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-06 17:00
Everygame🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.19%EV -6.08%E -2.59%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.70%EV -6.36%E -1.84%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.11%EV -11.19%E -4.15%K -6.58%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-13 11:58
Virgin Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 38.62%EV -7.28%E -3.14%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.57%EV -11.79%E -3.63%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.81%EV -12.84%E -4.84%K -7.78%G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-27 08:02
TAB🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%EV -8.08%E -3.51%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -5.00%E -1.43%K -2.00%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -4.61%E -1.59%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-14 05:29
FanDuel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.71%EV -8.08%E -3.51%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -7.71%E -2.27%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -2.97%E -1.01%K -1.52%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-06 07:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -8.08%E -3.51%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -7.71%E -2.27%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -4.61%E -1.59%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-02 22:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -8.08%E -3.51%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -7.71%E -2.27%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -4.61%E -1.59%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-02 22:19
Svenska Spel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -8.08%E -3.51%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -7.71%E -2.27%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -4.61%E -1.59%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-02 22:19
Bally Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -8.08%E -3.51%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -7.71%E -2.27%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -4.61%E -1.59%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-02 22:40
betPARX🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -8.08%E -3.51%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -7.71%E -2.27%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -4.61%E -1.59%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-02 22:45
Casumo🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -8.08%E -3.51%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -7.71%E -2.27%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -4.61%E -1.59%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-02 23:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -8.08%E -3.51%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -7.71%E -2.27%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -4.61%E -1.59%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-02 23:09
Grosvenor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -8.08%E -3.51%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -7.71%E -2.27%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -4.61%E -1.59%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-02 23:10
Unibet (NL)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -8.08%E -3.51%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -7.71%E -2.27%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -4.61%E -1.59%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-02 23:10
Unibet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -8.08%E -3.51%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -7.71%E -2.27%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -4.61%E -1.59%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-02 23:10
TABtouch🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -8.08%E -3.51%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -7.71%E -2.27%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -4.61%E -1.59%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-02 23:10
BetRivers🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -8.08%E -3.51%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -7.71%E -2.27%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -4.61%E -1.59%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-03 02:20
PMU (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -8.08%E -3.51%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -7.71%E -2.27%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -4.61%E -1.59%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-16 17:30
Sky Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.16%EV -8.08%E -3.51%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -10.43%E -3.16%K -4.53%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.85%EV -4.61%E -1.59%K -2.43%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-06 07:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.16%EV -8.08%E -3.51%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -10.43%E -3.16%K -4.53%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.85%EV -4.61%E -1.59%K -2.43%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-09 08:39
Winamax (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -8.08%E -3.51%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.53%EV -9.07%E -2.71%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.36%EV -6.26%E -2.20%K -3.38%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-14 09:19
LeoVegas🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.87%EV -8.08%E -3.51%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.38%EV -9.07%E -2.71%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -7.90%E -2.82%K -4.39%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-11 23:39
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -8.08%E -3.51%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -7.71%E -2.27%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -9.55%E -3.47%K -5.46%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-14 09:20
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -8.08%E -3.51%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -7.71%E -2.27%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -9.55%E -3.47%K -5.46%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-04 02:35
betano_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -8.08%E -3.51%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -7.71%E -2.27%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -9.55%E -3.47%K -5.46%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-12 08:38
BoyleSports🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -10.08%E -4.48%K -8.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -10.43%E -3.16%K -4.53%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -4.61%E -1.59%K -2.43%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-05 11:35
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.60%EV -10.08%E -4.48%K -8.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -10.43%E -3.16%K -4.53%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.72%EV -5.27%E -1.83%K -2.80%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-06 07:10
Winamax (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.07%EV -10.08%E -4.48%K -8.06%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.74%EV -11.79%E -3.63%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.20%EV -7.90%E -2.82%K -4.39%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-14 09:19
LiveScore Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.28%EV -10.88%E -4.88%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.64%EV -11.79%E -3.63%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.08%EV -7.90%E -2.82%K -4.39%G +0.000%11.3%2026-07-02 22:20
Betclic (FR)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 40.27%EV -12.87%E -5.91%K -10.91%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 26.85%EV -11.24%E -3.44%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 32.88%EV -12.18%E -4.56%K -7.29%G +0.000%13.9%2026-07-14 09:19
Unibet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.85%EV -14.07%E -6.55%K -12.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.62%EV -10.43%E -3.16%K -4.53%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.53%EV -11.19%E -4.15%K -6.58%G +0.000%13.9%2026-07-14 09:19
NetBet (FR)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 40.20%EV -15.27%E -7.20%K -13.64%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.63%EV -13.14%E -4.11%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 33.16%EV -15.47%E -6.02%K -9.85%G +0.000%17.3%2026-07-11 05:44
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (4)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Smarkets2.34I 42.74%NM 40.85%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.49%2.84I 35.21%NM 33.66%4.6%2026-07-14 09:19
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.40I 41.67%NM 39.71%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.76%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.53%4.9%2026-07-13 11:59
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.40I 41.67%NM 39.71%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.76%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.53%4.9%2026-07-13 12:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.40I 41.67%NM 39.71%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.76%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.53%4.9%2026-07-13 11:59