The School of Odds
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Barcelona v Atlético Madrid

Kickoff: 2026-03-03 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

31 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Barcelona (Local)

Prediction 66.48%1.50fair odd
EV -4.27%
Edge -2.96%
Kelly -9.70%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.77%66.45%66.32%67.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.401.401.4475.19%71.31%71.43%69.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Atlético Madrid (Visit)

Prediction 16.53%6.05fair odd
EV +1.18%
Edge +0.193%
Kelly +0.231%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 6.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.77%16.58%16.56%17.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.675.756.1220.00%17.65%17.39%16.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 16.99%5.89fair odd
EV +5.31%
Edge +0.856%
Kelly +1.02%
Growth +0.054%

assuming max odds 6.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.35%16.98%17.12%18.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.545.506.2020.00%18.05%18.18%16.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Barcelona (Local): 66.48%; Atlético Madrid (Visit): 16.53%; Draw: 16.99%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.89. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.31%.

Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.96%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.31%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.69%EV -5.76%E -1.01%K -1.23%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.35%EV +5.31%E +0.856%K +1.02%G +0.054%5.1%2026-03-03 19:55
Pinnacle🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.96%EV -5.60%E -3.94%K -13.32%G +0.000%6.12I 16.34%NM 15.77%EV +1.18%E +0.193%K +0.231%G +0.003%5.93I 16.86%NM 16.27%EV +0.723%E +0.122%K +0.147%G +0.001%3.6%2026-03-03 19:51
1xBet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 67.31%EV -4.27%E -2.96%K -9.70%G +0.000%5.95I 16.81%NM 16.29%EV -1.63%E -0.274%K -0.329%G +0.000%5.91I 16.92%NM 16.40%EV +0.383%E +0.065%K +0.078%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-03 19:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.69%EV -5.60%E -3.94%K -13.32%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.02%EV -0.802%E -0.134%K -0.160%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.29%EV +0.213%E +0.036%K +0.043%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-03 19:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.72%EV -5.60%E -3.94%K -13.32%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.23%EV -9.07%E -1.65%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.06%EV +0.213%E +0.036%K +0.043%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-03 19:35
Svenska Spel🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -4.93%E -3.45%K -11.47%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.51%EV -4.11%E -0.708%K -0.856%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.51%EV -1.49%E -0.256%K -0.309%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-03 19:31
ATG (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -4.93%E -3.45%K -11.47%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.51%EV -4.11%E -0.708%K -0.856%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.51%EV -1.49%E -0.256%K -0.309%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-03 19:30
Unibet (FR)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.03%EV -5.60%E -3.94%K -13.32%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -4.94%E -0.858%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.41%EV -1.49%E -0.256%K -0.309%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-03 19:44
Winamax (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.64%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.31%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.28%EV -10.72%E -1.99%K -2.44%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.09%EV -1.49%E -0.256%K -0.309%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-03 19:35
Unibet (NL)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.19%EV -6.26%E -4.44%K -15.27%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.33%EV -4.11%E -0.708%K -0.856%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.48%EV -2.33%E -0.406%K -0.492%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-03 19:30
Unibet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.19%EV -6.26%E -4.44%K -15.27%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.33%EV -4.11%E -0.708%K -0.856%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.48%EV -2.33%E -0.406%K -0.492%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-03 19:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.19%EV -6.26%E -4.44%K -15.27%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.33%EV -4.11%E -0.708%K -0.856%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.48%EV -2.33%E -0.406%K -0.492%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-03 19:30
LeoVegas🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.05%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.31%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.18%EV -4.11%E -0.708%K -0.856%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.76%EV -4.88%E -0.872%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-03 19:30
Grosvenor🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.05%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.31%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.18%EV -4.11%E -0.708%K -0.856%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.76%EV -4.88%E -0.872%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-03 19:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.37%EV -8.26%E -5.98%K -21.72%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.03%EV -4.11%E -0.708%K -0.856%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.60%EV -4.88%E -0.872%K -1.06%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-03 19:30
Coral🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.13%EV -4.27%E -2.96%K -9.70%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.56%EV -4.94%E -0.858%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.31%EV -6.58%E -1.20%K -1.46%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-03 17:55
BetMGM🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.28%EV -4.93%E -3.45%K -11.47%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.48%EV -4.94%E -0.858%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.23%EV -6.58%E -1.20%K -1.46%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-03 17:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.27%E -2.96%K -9.70%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.18%EV -9.07%E -1.65%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.18%EV -6.58%E -1.20%K -1.46%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-03 17:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.44%EV -5.60%E -3.94%K -13.32%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.41%EV -4.94%E -0.858%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.15%EV -6.58%E -1.20%K -1.46%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-03 19:35
Betway🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.75%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.31%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.25%EV -4.94%E -0.858%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.99%EV -6.58%E -1.20%K -1.46%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-03 19:29
Paddy Power🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.91%EV -9.58%E -7.05%K -26.62%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -9.07%E -1.65%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -6.58%E -1.20%K -1.46%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-03 19:05
SportsBet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.91%EV -9.58%E -7.05%K -26.62%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -9.07%E -1.65%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -6.58%E -1.20%K -1.46%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-03 19:05
Codere (IT)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.10%EV -6.26%E -4.44%K -15.27%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.64%EV -7.42%E -1.32%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.26%EV -8.28%E -1.53%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-03 19:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.39%EV -11.58%E -8.71%K -35.09%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.01%EV -7.42%E -1.32%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.60%EV -8.28%E -1.53%K -1.88%G +0.000%11.6%2026-03-03 19:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.39%EV -11.58%E -8.71%K -35.09%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.01%EV -7.42%E -1.32%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.60%EV -8.28%E -1.53%K -1.88%G +0.000%11.6%2026-03-03 19:31
888sport🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.17%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.31%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.59%EV -9.07%E -1.65%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.25%EV -15.07%E -3.01%K -3.77%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-03 17:20
William Hill🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.17%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.31%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.59%EV -9.07%E -1.65%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.25%EV -15.07%E -3.01%K -3.77%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-03 17:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.17%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.31%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.59%EV -9.07%E -1.65%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.25%EV -15.07%E -3.01%K -3.77%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-03 17:20
888sport (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.17%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.31%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.59%EV -9.07%E -1.65%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.25%EV -15.07%E -3.01%K -3.77%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-03 17:20
Bet Victor🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.17%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.31%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.59%EV -9.07%E -1.65%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.25%EV -15.07%E -3.01%K -3.77%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-03 19:45
BoyleSports🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 64.77%EV -9.58%E -7.05%K -26.62%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.62%EV -17.33%E -3.47%K -4.33%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.62%EV -15.07%E -3.01%K -3.77%G +0.000%13.5%2026-03-03 19:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.46I 68.49%NM 68.28%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.10%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.61%0.3%2026-03-03 19:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.46I 68.49%NM 68.28%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.10%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.61%0.3%2026-03-03 19:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.46I 68.49%NM 68.09%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.06%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.85%0.6%2026-03-03 19:55