La escuela de los momiosEspañol
Barcelona v Atlético Madrid
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Barcelona (Local)
Predicción 66.48%1.50momio equitativo
EV -4.27%
Ventaja -2.96%
Kelly -9.70%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.44
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
64.77%66.45%66.32%67.96%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.331.401.401.4475.19%71.31%71.43%69.44%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Atlético Madrid (Visitante)
Predicción 16.53%6.05momio equitativo
EV +1.18%
Ventaja +0.193%
Kelly +0.231%
Crecimiento +0.003%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.12
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
15.77%16.58%16.56%17.62%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
5.005.675.756.1220.00%17.65%17.39%16.34%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Empate
Predicción 16.99%5.89momio equitativo
EV +5.31%
Ventaja +0.856%
Kelly +1.02%
Crecimiento +0.054%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.20
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
15.35%16.98%17.12%18.25%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
5.005.545.506.2020.00%18.05%18.18%16.13%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (31 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate ▼ | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tipico (DE) | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.96%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.31%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.69%EV -5.76%E -1.01%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.35%EV +5.31%E +0.856%K +1.02%G +0.054% | 5.1% | 2026-03-03 19:55 |
| Pinnacle | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.96%EV -5.60%E -3.94%K -13.32%G +0.000% | 6.12I 16.34%NM 15.77%EV +1.18%E +0.193%K +0.231%G +0.003% | 5.93I 16.86%NM 16.27%EV +0.723%E +0.122%K +0.147%G +0.001% | 3.6% | 2026-03-03 19:51 |
| 1xBet | 1.44I 69.44%NM 67.31%EV -4.27%E -2.96%K -9.70%G +0.000% | 5.95I 16.81%NM 16.29%EV -1.63%E -0.274%K -0.329%G +0.000% | 5.91I 16.92%NM 16.40%EV +0.383%E +0.065%K +0.078%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-03-03 19:55 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.69%EV -5.60%E -3.94%K -13.32%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.02%EV -0.802%E -0.134%K -0.160%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.29%EV +0.213%E +0.036%K +0.043%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-03 19:50 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.72%EV -5.60%E -3.94%K -13.32%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.23%EV -9.07%E -1.65%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.06%EV +0.213%E +0.036%K +0.043%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-03 19:35 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -4.93%E -3.45%K -11.47%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.51%EV -4.11%E -0.708%K -0.856%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.51%EV -1.49%E -0.256%K -0.309%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-03 19:31 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -4.93%E -3.45%K -11.47%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.51%EV -4.11%E -0.708%K -0.856%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.51%EV -1.49%E -0.256%K -0.309%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-03 19:30 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.03%EV -5.60%E -3.94%K -13.32%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -4.94%E -0.858%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.41%EV -1.49%E -0.256%K -0.309%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-03 19:44 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.64%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.31%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.28%EV -10.72%E -1.99%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.09%EV -1.49%E -0.256%K -0.309%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-03 19:35 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.19%EV -6.26%E -4.44%K -15.27%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.33%EV -4.11%E -0.708%K -0.856%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.48%EV -2.33%E -0.406%K -0.492%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-03 19:30 |
| Unibet | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.19%EV -6.26%E -4.44%K -15.27%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.33%EV -4.11%E -0.708%K -0.856%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.48%EV -2.33%E -0.406%K -0.492%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-03 19:30 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.19%EV -6.26%E -4.44%K -15.27%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.33%EV -4.11%E -0.708%K -0.856%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.48%EV -2.33%E -0.406%K -0.492%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-03 19:30 |
| LeoVegas | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.05%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.31%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.18%EV -4.11%E -0.708%K -0.856%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.76%EV -4.88%E -0.872%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-03 19:30 |
| Grosvenor | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.05%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.31%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.18%EV -4.11%E -0.708%K -0.856%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.76%EV -4.88%E -0.872%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-03 19:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.37%EV -8.26%E -5.98%K -21.72%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.03%EV -4.11%E -0.708%K -0.856%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.60%EV -4.88%E -0.872%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-03 19:30 |
| Coral | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.13%EV -4.27%E -2.96%K -9.70%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.56%EV -4.94%E -0.858%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.31%EV -6.58%E -1.20%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-03 17:55 |
| BetMGM | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.28%EV -4.93%E -3.45%K -11.47%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.48%EV -4.94%E -0.858%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.23%EV -6.58%E -1.20%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-03 17:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.27%E -2.96%K -9.70%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.18%EV -9.07%E -1.65%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.18%EV -6.58%E -1.20%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-03 17:55 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.44%EV -5.60%E -3.94%K -13.32%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.41%EV -4.94%E -0.858%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.15%EV -6.58%E -1.20%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-03 19:35 |
| Betway | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.75%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.31%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.25%EV -4.94%E -0.858%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.99%EV -6.58%E -1.20%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-03 19:29 |
| Paddy Power | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.91%EV -9.58%E -7.05%K -26.62%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -9.07%E -1.65%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -6.58%E -1.20%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-03-03 19:05 |
| SportsBet | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.91%EV -9.58%E -7.05%K -26.62%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -9.07%E -1.65%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -6.58%E -1.20%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-03-03 19:05 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.10%EV -6.26%E -4.44%K -15.27%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.64%EV -7.42%E -1.32%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.26%EV -8.28%E -1.53%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-03 19:35 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.39%EV -11.58%E -8.71%K -35.09%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.01%EV -7.42%E -1.32%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.60%EV -8.28%E -1.53%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-03-03 19:30 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.39%EV -11.58%E -8.71%K -35.09%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.01%EV -7.42%E -1.32%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.60%EV -8.28%E -1.53%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-03-03 19:31 |
| 888sport | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.17%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.31%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.59%EV -9.07%E -1.65%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.25%EV -15.07%E -3.01%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-03 17:20 |
| William Hill | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.17%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.31%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.59%EV -9.07%E -1.65%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.25%EV -15.07%E -3.01%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-03 17:20 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.17%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.31%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.59%EV -9.07%E -1.65%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.25%EV -15.07%E -3.01%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-03 17:20 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.17%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.31%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.59%EV -9.07%E -1.65%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.25%EV -15.07%E -3.01%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-03 17:20 |
| Bet Victor | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.17%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.31%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.59%EV -9.07%E -1.65%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.25%EV -15.07%E -3.01%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-03 19:45 |
| BoyleSports | 1.36I 73.53%NM 64.77%EV -9.58%E -7.05%K -26.62%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.62%EV -17.33%E -3.47%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.62%EV -15.07%E -3.01%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-03-03 19:50 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (3)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.46I 68.49%NM 68.28% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 15.10% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.61% | 0.3% | 2026-03-03 19:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.46I 68.49%NM 68.28% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 15.10% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.61% | 0.3% | 2026-03-03 19:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.46I 68.49%NM 68.09% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 15.06% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.85% | 0.6% | 2026-03-03 19:55 |