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默认模型四分位数间均值 (精选名单)
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Barcelona v Atlético Madrid

开赛时间： 2026-03-03 20:00 UTC

收盘赔率 — 按所选模型，根据开赛前最后记录的赔率计算得出的概率和期望值。比赛已经开始，因此这些并非实时数据。 依据所有已完赛结果评估各模型概率预测的可靠性 →

胜负盘

31 家博彩公司 (11 家纳入分析 )

模型估计的各赛果概率：四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Barcelona (主队)

预测 66.48%1.50公平赔率
EV -4.27%
优势 -2.96%
Kelly -9.70%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 1.44

博彩公司预测分布
64.77%66.45%66.32%67.96%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
1.331.401.401.4475.19%71.31%71.43%69.44%最小值均值中位数最大值

Atlético Madrid (客队)

预测 16.53%6.05公平赔率
EV +1.18%
优势 +0.193%
Kelly +0.231%
增长率 +0.003%

假设最高赔率为 6.12

博彩公司预测分布
15.77%16.58%16.56%17.62%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
5.005.675.756.1220.00%17.65%17.39%16.34%最小值均值中位数最大值

平局

预测 16.99%5.89公平赔率
EV +5.31%
优势 +0.856%
Kelly +1.02%
增长率 +0.054%

假设最高赔率为 6.20

博彩公司预测分布
15.35%16.98%17.12%18.25%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
5.005.545.506.2020.00%18.05%18.18%16.13%最小值均值中位数最大值

按开赛前最后一组赔率，四分位数间均值 (精选名单)对胜负盘的概率估计为：Barcelona (主队)：66.48%；Atlético Madrid (客队)：16.53%；平局：16.99%。 对于“平局”，该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为5.89。 当时有5家博彩公司提供高于该水平的收盘赔率；最佳赔率为6.20，对应+5.31%的正期望值。

博彩公司赔率 (31 家博彩公司)

我们与任何博彩公司均无关联，也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。

博彩公司主队客队平局 ▼利润率更新时间
Tipico (DE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.96%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.31%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.69%EV -5.76%E -1.01%K -1.23%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.35%EV +5.31%E +0.856%K +1.02%G +0.054%5.1%2026-03-03 19:55
Pinnacle🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.96%EV -5.60%E -3.94%K -13.32%G +0.000%6.12I 16.34%NM 15.77%EV +1.18%E +0.193%K +0.231%G +0.003%5.93I 16.86%NM 16.27%EV +0.723%E +0.122%K +0.147%G +0.001%3.6%2026-03-03 19:51
1xBet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 67.31%EV -4.27%E -2.96%K -9.70%G +0.000%5.95I 16.81%NM 16.29%EV -1.63%E -0.274%K -0.329%G +0.000%5.91I 16.92%NM 16.40%EV +0.383%E +0.065%K +0.078%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-03 19:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.69%EV -5.60%E -3.94%K -13.32%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.02%EV -0.802%E -0.134%K -0.160%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.29%EV +0.213%E +0.036%K +0.043%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-03 19:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.72%EV -5.60%E -3.94%K -13.32%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.23%EV -9.07%E -1.65%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.06%EV +0.213%E +0.036%K +0.043%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-03 19:35
Svenska Spel🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -4.93%E -3.45%K -11.47%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.51%EV -4.11%E -0.708%K -0.856%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.51%EV -1.49%E -0.256%K -0.309%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-03 19:31
ATG (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -4.93%E -3.45%K -11.47%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.51%EV -4.11%E -0.708%K -0.856%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.51%EV -1.49%E -0.256%K -0.309%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-03 19:30
Unibet (FR)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.03%EV -5.60%E -3.94%K -13.32%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -4.94%E -0.858%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.41%EV -1.49%E -0.256%K -0.309%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-03 19:44
Winamax (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.64%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.31%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.28%EV -10.72%E -1.99%K -2.44%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.09%EV -1.49%E -0.256%K -0.309%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-03 19:35
Unibet (NL)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.19%EV -6.26%E -4.44%K -15.27%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.33%EV -4.11%E -0.708%K -0.856%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.48%EV -2.33%E -0.406%K -0.492%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-03 19:30
Unibet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.19%EV -6.26%E -4.44%K -15.27%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.33%EV -4.11%E -0.708%K -0.856%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.48%EV -2.33%E -0.406%K -0.492%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-03 19:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.19%EV -6.26%E -4.44%K -15.27%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.33%EV -4.11%E -0.708%K -0.856%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.48%EV -2.33%E -0.406%K -0.492%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-03 19:30
LeoVegas🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.05%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.31%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.18%EV -4.11%E -0.708%K -0.856%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.76%EV -4.88%E -0.872%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-03 19:30
Grosvenor🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.05%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.31%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.18%EV -4.11%E -0.708%K -0.856%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.76%EV -4.88%E -0.872%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-03 19:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.37%EV -8.26%E -5.98%K -21.72%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.03%EV -4.11%E -0.708%K -0.856%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.60%EV -4.88%E -0.872%K -1.06%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-03 19:30
Coral🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.13%EV -4.27%E -2.96%K -9.70%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.56%EV -4.94%E -0.858%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.31%EV -6.58%E -1.20%K -1.46%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-03 17:55
BetMGM🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.28%EV -4.93%E -3.45%K -11.47%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.48%EV -4.94%E -0.858%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.23%EV -6.58%E -1.20%K -1.46%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-03 17:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.27%E -2.96%K -9.70%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.18%EV -9.07%E -1.65%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.18%EV -6.58%E -1.20%K -1.46%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-03 17:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.44%EV -5.60%E -3.94%K -13.32%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.41%EV -4.94%E -0.858%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.15%EV -6.58%E -1.20%K -1.46%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-03 19:35
Betway🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.75%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.31%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.25%EV -4.94%E -0.858%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.99%EV -6.58%E -1.20%K -1.46%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-03 19:29
Paddy Power🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.91%EV -9.58%E -7.05%K -26.62%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -9.07%E -1.65%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -6.58%E -1.20%K -1.46%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-03 19:05
SportsBet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.91%EV -9.58%E -7.05%K -26.62%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -9.07%E -1.65%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -6.58%E -1.20%K -1.46%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-03 19:05
Codere (IT)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.10%EV -6.26%E -4.44%K -15.27%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.64%EV -7.42%E -1.32%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.26%EV -8.28%E -1.53%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-03 19:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.39%EV -11.58%E -8.71%K -35.09%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.01%EV -7.42%E -1.32%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.60%EV -8.28%E -1.53%K -1.88%G +0.000%11.6%2026-03-03 19:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.39%EV -11.58%E -8.71%K -35.09%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.01%EV -7.42%E -1.32%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.60%EV -8.28%E -1.53%K -1.88%G +0.000%11.6%2026-03-03 19:31
888sport🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.17%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.31%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.59%EV -9.07%E -1.65%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.25%EV -15.07%E -3.01%K -3.77%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-03 17:20
William Hill🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.17%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.31%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.59%EV -9.07%E -1.65%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.25%EV -15.07%E -3.01%K -3.77%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-03 17:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.17%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.31%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.59%EV -9.07%E -1.65%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.25%EV -15.07%E -3.01%K -3.77%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-03 17:20
888sport (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.17%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.31%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.59%EV -9.07%E -1.65%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.25%EV -15.07%E -3.01%K -3.77%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-03 17:20
Bet Victor🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.17%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.31%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.59%EV -9.07%E -1.65%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.25%EV -15.07%E -3.01%K -3.77%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-03 19:45
BoyleSports🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 64.77%EV -9.58%E -7.05%K -26.62%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.62%EV -17.33%E -3.47%K -4.33%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.62%EV -15.07%E -3.01%K -3.77%G +0.000%13.5%2026-03-03 19:50
利润率 = 利润率（超额概率） · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率

更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间，因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变，并不代表数据已经失效。通常，约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除；只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时，才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。

博彩交易所 (3)

博彩公司主队客队平局利润率 ▲更新时间
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.46I 68.49%NM 68.28%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.10%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.61%0.3%2026-03-03 19:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.46I 68.49%NM 68.28%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.10%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.61%0.3%2026-03-03 19:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.46I 68.49%NM 68.09%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.06%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.85%0.6%2026-03-03 19:55