Language:English
Al-Fateh v Al-Najma
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Al-Fateh (Local)
Prediction 59.13%1.69fair odd
EV -4.22%
Edge -2.60%
Kelly -6.80%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.62
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.93%59.16%59.08%60.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.471.531.521.6268.03%65.36%65.79%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Al-Najma (Visit)
Prediction 19.59%5.10fair odd
EV +9.52%
Edge +1.70%
Kelly +2.07%
Growth +0.197%
assuming max odds 5.59
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.34%19.61%19.61%21.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.694.755.5923.81%21.33%21.05%17.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 21.28%4.70fair odd
EV +1.30%
Edge +0.273%
Kelly +0.346%
Growth +0.004%
assuming max odds 4.76
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.89%21.23%21.30%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.604.244.254.7627.78%23.57%23.53%21.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Fateh (Local): 59.13%; Al-Najma (Visit): 19.59%; Draw: 21.28%. For Al-Najma (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.10. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.59, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.52%.
Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.85%EV -4.22%E -2.60%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 5.59I 17.89%NM 17.34%EV +9.52%E +1.70%K +2.07%G +0.197% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.81%EV -9.55%E -2.25%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-05-14 15:51 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 59.01%EV -8.95%E -5.81%K -16.57%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.55%EV -4.00%E -0.816%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.44%EV -13.81%E -3.41%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-14 15:31 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.78%EV -4.81%E -2.99%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.72%EV -5.96%E -1.24%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.51%EV -6.36%E -1.45%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-14 15:51 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.57%EV -4.81%E -2.99%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.65%EV -5.96%E -1.24%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.78%EV -7.85%E -1.81%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-14 15:51 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 59.71%EV -8.95%E -5.81%K -16.57%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.16%EV -5.96%E -1.24%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.14%EV -7.43%E -1.71%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-14 15:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 59.71%EV -8.95%E -5.81%K -16.57%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.16%EV -5.96%E -1.24%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.14%EV -7.43%E -1.71%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-14 15:51 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 59.71%EV -8.95%E -5.81%K -16.57%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.16%EV -5.96%E -1.24%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.14%EV -7.43%E -1.71%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-14 15:51 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 59.71%EV -8.95%E -5.81%K -16.57%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.16%EV -5.96%E -1.24%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.14%EV -7.43%E -1.71%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-14 15:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 59.71%EV -8.95%E -5.81%K -16.57%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.16%EV -5.96%E -1.24%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.14%EV -7.43%E -1.71%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-14 15:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 59.71%EV -8.95%E -5.81%K -16.57%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.16%EV -5.96%E -1.24%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.14%EV -7.43%E -1.71%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-14 15:51 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 60.44%EV -10.13%E -6.66%K -19.48%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.14%EV -5.96%E -1.24%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -4.23%E -0.941%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-14 15:35 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 60.18%EV -10.72%E -7.10%K -21.02%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.93%EV -5.96%E -1.24%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.89%EV -7.43%E -1.71%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-14 15:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 60.18%EV -10.72%E -7.10%K -21.02%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.93%EV -5.96%E -1.24%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.89%EV -7.43%E -1.71%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-14 15:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.30%EV -7.17%E -4.57%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 4.78I 20.92%NM 19.81%EV -6.35%E -1.33%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 4.76I 21.01%NM 19.89%EV +1.30%E +0.273%K +0.346%G +0.004% | 5.6% | 2026-05-14 15:46 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.67%EV -6.58%E -4.16%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.52%EV -6.94%E -1.46%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.81%EV -9.55%E -2.25%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-14 15:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.36%EV -11.31%E -7.54%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.06%EV -6.94%E -1.46%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.58%EV -6.36%E -1.45%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-05-14 15:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 59.98%EV -12.49%E -8.44%K -26.03%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 18.89%EV -7.92%E -1.68%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.14%EV -10.62%E -2.53%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-05-14 15:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 59.98%EV -12.49%E -8.44%K -26.03%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 18.89%EV -7.92%E -1.68%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.14%EV -10.62%E -2.53%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-05-14 15:50 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.31%EV -7.17%E -4.57%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.90%EV -9.88%E -2.15%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -10.62%E -2.53%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-14 15:19 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 58.79%EV -11.31%E -7.54%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.17%EV -9.88%E -2.15%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.04%EV -14.87%E -3.72%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-05-14 15:51 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 58.79%EV -11.31%E -7.54%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.17%EV -9.88%E -2.15%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.04%EV -14.87%E -3.72%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-05-14 15:51 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 58.79%EV -11.31%E -7.54%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.17%EV -9.88%E -2.15%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.04%EV -14.87%E -3.72%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-05-14 15:51 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 59.90%EV -13.08%E -8.90%K -27.84%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.14%EV -9.88%E -2.15%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.96%EV -10.62%E -2.53%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-05-14 15:50 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 58.97%EV -10.72%E -7.10%K -21.02%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 19.57%EV -10.86%E -2.39%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 21.46%EV -11.68%E -2.82%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-05-14 15:25 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 58.81%EV -8.95%E -5.81%K -16.57%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.13%EV -11.83%E -2.63%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.06%EV -8.49%E -1.97%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-05-14 15:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.53%EV -11.31%E -7.54%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.84%EV -11.83%E -2.63%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.62%EV -7.85%E -1.81%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-05-14 15:30 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.15%EV -11.31%E -7.54%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.72%EV -11.83%E -2.63%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.13%EV -10.62%E -2.53%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-05-14 15:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 57.14%EV -11.31%E -7.54%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.05%EV -11.83%E -2.63%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 23.81%EV -23.39%E -6.50%K -9.00%G +0.000% | 16.7% | 2026-05-14 15:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 58.57%EV -10.13%E -6.66%K -19.48%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.23%EV -13.79%E -3.14%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.20%EV -10.62%E -2.53%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-05-14 15:25 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 56.93%EV -8.35%E -5.39%K -15.19%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.01%EV -17.71%E -4.22%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.06%EV -14.87%E -3.72%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-05-14 15:51 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 58.33%EV -11.31%E -7.54%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.83%EV -17.71%E -4.22%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.83%EV -10.62%E -2.53%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-05-14 15:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 60.86% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.60% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.54% | 1.4% | 2026-05-14 15:51 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 60.86% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.60% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.54% | 1.4% | 2026-05-14 15:21 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 60.86% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.60% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.54% | 1.4% | 2026-05-14 15:21 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 60.86% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.60% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.54% | 1.4% | 2026-05-14 15:21 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 61.72% | 5.26I 19.01%NM 18.66% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.63% | 1.9% | 2026-05-14 15:26 |