The School of Odds

Vitória SC v Arouca

2026-08-08 17:00 UTC — Primeira Liga - Portugal

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Vitória SC (Local)

Prediction 48.11%2.08fair odd
EV -3.77%
Edge -1.89%
Kelly -3.77%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.22%48.00%48.13%48.70%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.761.911.912.0056.82%52.45%52.36%50.00%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Arouca (Visit)

Prediction 24.95%4.01fair odd
EV -5.20%
Edge -1.37%
Kelly -1.86%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.28%25.03%24.90%26.32%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.303.643.703.8030.30%27.51%27.03%26.32%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 26.94%3.71fair odd
EV -3.02%
Edge -0.838%
Kelly -1.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.32%26.96%26.97%27.90%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.153.393.373.6031.75%29.53%29.67%27.78%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -3.77%E -1.89%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -10.19%E -2.83%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -3.02%E -0.838%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-27 10:50
Betr (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.35%EV -3.77%E -1.89%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.59%EV -7.70%E -2.08%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -5.71%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-27 10:50
Bet Right1.96I 51.02%NM 47.52%EV -5.70%E -2.91%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -10.19%E -2.83%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -5.71%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-27 10:49
Fanatics1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -6.18%E -3.17%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -5.20%E -1.37%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -5.71%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-27 11:00
888sport1.95I 51.28%NM 47.22%EV -6.18%E -3.17%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -7.70%E -2.08%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.90%EV -11.10%E -3.36%K -4.83%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-27 11:00
888sport (SE)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.22%EV -6.18%E -3.17%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -7.70%E -2.08%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.90%EV -11.10%E -3.36%K -4.83%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-27 11:00
Mr Green (SE)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.22%EV -6.18%E -3.17%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -7.70%E -2.08%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.90%EV -11.10%E -3.36%K -4.83%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-27 11:05
SportsBet1.94I 51.55%NM 48.11%EV -6.66%E -3.43%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -7.70%E -2.08%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -5.71%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-27 10:50
FanDuel1.91I 52.36%NM 48.50%EV -8.10%E -4.24%K -8.90%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.04%EV -7.70%E -2.08%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -5.71%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-27 10:49
Paddy Power1.91I 52.36%NM 48.50%EV -8.10%E -4.24%K -8.90%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.04%EV -7.70%E -2.08%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -5.71%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-27 10:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 48.50%EV -8.10%E -4.24%K -8.90%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.04%EV -7.70%E -2.08%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -5.71%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-27 10:49
Betclic (FR)1.87I 53.48%NM 48.70%EV -10.03%E -5.36%K -11.53%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.28%EV -6.45%E -1.72%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 27.02%EV -9.21%E -2.73%K -3.89%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-27 11:19
BoyleSports1.87I 53.48%NM 47.94%EV -10.03%E -5.36%K -11.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.90%EV -10.19%E -2.83%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.16%EV -11.10%E -3.36%K -4.83%G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-27 11:20
Sky Bet1.85I 54.05%NM 47.87%EV -10.99%E -5.94%K -12.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.30%EV -12.69%E -3.62%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -11.10%E -3.36%K -4.83%G +0.000%12.9%2026-07-27 10:50
Winamax (DE)1.82I 54.95%NM 47.90%EV -12.43%E -6.83%K -15.16%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.27%EV -13.93%E -4.04%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.83%EV -12.45%E -3.83%K -5.53%G +0.000%14.7%2026-07-27 11:20
Unibet (FR)1.81I 55.25%NM 48.35%EV -12.91%E -7.14%K -15.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.31%EV -10.19%E -2.83%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.35%EV -13.79%E -4.31%K -6.27%G +0.000%14.3%2026-07-27 11:20
Winamax (FR)1.76I 56.82%NM 47.80%EV -15.32%E -8.70%K -20.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.49%EV -17.68%E -5.36%K -7.68%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 26.71%EV -15.14%E -4.81%K -7.04%G +0.000%18.9%2026-07-27 11:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.81I 55.25%NM 47.43%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.88%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.69%16.5%2026-07-27 11:25