Language:English
Sporting Lisbon v Gil Vicente
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Sporting Lisbon (Local)
Prediction 76.00%1.32fair odd
EV -4.24%
Edge -3.37%
Kelly -16.31%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.26
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.86%75.88%75.90%77.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.161.231.231.2686.21%81.61%81.63%79.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Gil Vicente (Visit)
Prediction 8.65%11.56fair odd
EV +3.83%
Edge +0.319%
Kelly +0.348%
Growth +0.013%
assuming max odds 12.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.78%8.75%8.69%10.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.5010.3510.0012.0011.76%9.66%10.00%8.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 15.35%6.52fair odd
EV +1.15%
Edge +0.174%
Kelly +0.205%
Growth +0.002%
assuming max odds 6.59
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.18%15.37%15.41%17.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.926.006.5920.00%16.91%16.67%15.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sporting Lisbon (Local): 76.00%; Gil Vicente (Visit): 8.65%; Draw: 15.35%. For Gil Vicente (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.56. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 12.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.83%.
Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.84%EV -8.80%E -7.33%K -44.00%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV +3.83%E +0.319%K +0.348%G +0.013% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -0.236%E -0.036%K -0.043%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-11 23:39 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.99%EV -8.80%E -7.33%K -44.00%G +0.000% | 11.75I 8.51%NM 7.86%EV +1.66%E +0.142%K +0.155%G +0.003% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.15%EV -6.38%E -1.05%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-11 22:03 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.08%EV -8.04%E -6.65%K -38.29%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.11%EV -0.499%E -0.043%K -0.048%G +0.000% | 6.30I 15.87%NM 14.81%EV -3.31%E -0.525%K -0.624%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-12 09:49 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 74.77%EV -5.76%E -4.65%K -24.00%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.06%EV -0.499%E -0.043%K -0.048%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.17%EV -17.12%E -3.17%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-12 09:14 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 74.77%EV -5.76%E -4.65%K -24.00%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.06%EV -0.499%E -0.043%K -0.048%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.17%EV -17.12%E -3.17%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-12 09:14 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 77.31%EV -11.08%E -9.47%K -65.18%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 7.87%EV -0.499%E -0.043%K -0.048%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.83%EV -6.38%E -1.05%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-05-12 09:53 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.76%EV -4.24%E -3.37%K -16.31%G +0.000% | 11.30I 8.85%NM 8.56%EV -2.23%E -0.197%K -0.216%G +0.000% | 6.59I 15.17%NM 14.68%EV +1.15%E +0.174%K +0.205%G +0.002% | 3.4% | 2026-05-12 01:44 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.57%EV -5.00%E -4.00%K -20.00%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.70%EV -4.83%E -0.439%K -0.483%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.73%EV -0.236%E -0.036%K -0.043%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-11 20:50 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.72%EV -5.76%E -4.65%K -24.00%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.65%EV -4.83%E -0.439%K -0.483%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.64%EV -0.236%E -0.036%K -0.043%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-11 20:59 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.50%EV -4.24%E -3.37%K -16.31%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.65%EV -4.83%E -0.439%K -0.483%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -7.91%E -1.32%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-11 22:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.79%EV -5.76%E -4.65%K -24.00%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -4.83%E -0.439%K -0.483%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -7.91%E -1.32%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-11 22:19 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.94%EV -6.52%E -5.30%K -28.35%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -4.83%E -0.439%K -0.483%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV -7.91%E -1.32%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-11 22:04 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.28%EV -5.76%E -4.65%K -24.00%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -4.83%E -0.439%K -0.483%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.23%EV -11.75%E -2.04%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-11 21:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -7.28%E -5.97%K -33.09%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV -4.83%E -0.439%K -0.483%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -7.91%E -1.32%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-11 22:19 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -7.28%E -5.97%K -33.09%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV -4.83%E -0.439%K -0.483%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -7.91%E -1.32%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-11 22:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.49%EV -5.76%E -4.65%K -24.00%G +0.000% | 10.51I 9.51%NM 8.91%EV -9.07%E -0.863%K -0.953%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.60%EV -7.91%E -1.32%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-12 07:52 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.83%EV -5.00%E -4.00%K -20.00%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.91%EV -9.15%E -0.872%K -0.963%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV -11.75%E -2.04%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-11 21:59 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.00%E -4.00%K -20.00%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -13.48%E -1.35%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -7.91%E -1.32%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-11 21:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.00%E -4.00%K -20.00%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -13.48%E -1.35%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -7.91%E -1.32%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-11 20:54 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.00%E -4.00%K -20.00%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -13.48%E -1.35%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -7.91%E -1.32%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-11 20:54 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.00%E -4.00%K -20.00%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -13.48%E -1.35%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -7.91%E -1.32%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-11 20:55 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.95%EV -5.00%E -4.00%K -20.00%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV -13.48%E -1.35%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -15.58%E -2.83%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-11 21:57 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.28%E -5.97%K -33.09%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -13.48%E -1.35%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -7.91%E -1.32%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-12 09:09 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.28%E -5.97%K -33.09%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -13.48%E -1.35%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -7.91%E -1.32%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-12 09:14 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.28%E -5.97%K -33.09%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -13.48%E -1.35%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -7.91%E -1.32%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-12 09:09 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.28%E -5.97%K -33.09%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -13.48%E -1.35%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -7.91%E -1.32%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-12 09:09 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.95%EV -7.28%E -5.97%K -33.09%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.14%EV -13.48%E -1.35%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.90%EV -11.75%E -2.04%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-12 08:49 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.41%EV -7.28%E -5.97%K -33.09%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.08%EV -13.48%E -1.35%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.51%EV -15.58%E -2.83%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-11 22:03 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 75.20%EV -11.08%E -9.47%K -65.18%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.80%EV -13.48%E -1.35%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.00%EV -15.58%E -2.83%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-05-11 22:05 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 72.86%EV -7.28%E -5.97%K -33.09%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.36%EV -17.80%E -1.87%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.78%EV -23.26%E -4.65%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-05-11 22:44 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.57%EV -7.28%E -5.97%K -33.09%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.24%EV -22.13%E -2.46%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.18%EV -0.236%E -0.036%K -0.043%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-12 09:54 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.67%EV -7.28%E -5.97%K -33.09%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.99%EV -22.13%E -2.46%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.34%EV -15.58%E -2.83%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-11 22:19 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 74.73%EV -10.32%E -8.75%K -57.34%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.80%EV -22.13%E -2.46%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 15.47%EV -12.51%E -2.20%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-05-11 22:04 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.36%EV -6.52%E -5.30%K -28.35%G +0.000% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 10.39%EV -23.86%E -2.71%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.24%EV -7.91%E -1.32%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-12 09:19 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.36%EV -6.52%E -5.30%K -28.35%G +0.000% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 10.39%EV -23.86%E -2.71%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.24%EV -7.91%E -1.32%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-12 09:19 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 73.32%EV -11.84%E -10.21%K -74.00%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.01%EV -26.46%E -3.11%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 16.68%EV -21.72%E -4.26%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 17.6% | 2026-05-11 22:04 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.11I 90.09%NM 79.22% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.04% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 13.74% | 13.7% | 2026-05-12 07:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.11I 90.09%NM 79.22% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.04% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 13.74% | 13.7% | 2026-05-12 07:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.11I 90.09%NM 79.22% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.04% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 13.74% | 13.7% | 2026-05-12 07:54 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.09I 91.74%NM 78.40% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.12% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 14.48% | 17.0% | 2026-05-12 08:00 |