L’École des cotesFrançais
Sporting Lisbon v Gil Vicente
Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →
Résultat du match
Sporting Lisbon (Local)
Prévision 76.00%1.32cote équitable
EV -4.24%
Avantage -3.37%
Kelly -16.31%
Croissance +0.000%
avec la cote maximale 1.26
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
72.86%75.88%75.90%77.84%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.161.231.231.2686.21%81.61%81.63%79.37%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Gil Vicente (Visiteur)
Prévision 8.65%11.56cote équitable
EV +3.83%
Avantage +0.319%
Kelly +0.348%
Croissance +0.013%
avec la cote maximale 12.00
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
7.78%8.75%8.69%10.39%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
8.5010.3510.0012.0011.76%9.66%10.00%8.33%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Match nul
Prévision 15.35%6.52cote équitable
EV +1.15%
Avantage +0.174%
Kelly +0.205%
Croissance +0.002%
avec la cote maximale 6.59
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
14.18%15.37%15.41%17.78%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
5.005.926.006.5920.00%16.91%16.67%15.17%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Cotes des opérateurs (36 opérateurs)
Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.
| Opérateur | Local | Visiteur ▼ | Match nul | Marge | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tipico (DE) | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.84%EV -8.80%E -7.33%K -44.00%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV +3.83%E +0.319%K +0.348%G +0.013% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -0.236%E -0.036%K -0.043%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-11 23:39 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.99%EV -8.80%E -7.33%K -44.00%G +0.000% | 11.75I 8.51%NM 7.86%EV +1.66%E +0.142%K +0.155%G +0.003% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.15%EV -6.38%E -1.05%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-11 22:03 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.08%EV -8.04%E -6.65%K -38.29%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.11%EV -0.499%E -0.043%K -0.048%G +0.000% | 6.30I 15.87%NM 14.81%EV -3.31%E -0.525%K -0.624%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-12 09:49 |
| Betsson | 1.24I 80.65%NM 74.77%EV -5.76%E -4.65%K -24.00%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.06%EV -0.499%E -0.043%K -0.048%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.17%EV -17.12%E -3.17%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-12 09:14 |
| NordicBet | 1.24I 80.65%NM 74.77%EV -5.76%E -4.65%K -24.00%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.06%EV -0.499%E -0.043%K -0.048%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.17%EV -17.12%E -3.17%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-12 09:14 |
| NetBet (FR) | 1.17I 85.47%NM 77.31%EV -11.08%E -9.47%K -65.18%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 7.87%EV -0.499%E -0.043%K -0.048%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.83%EV -6.38%E -1.05%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-05-12 09:53 |
| 1xBet | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.76%EV -4.24%E -3.37%K -16.31%G +0.000% | 11.30I 8.85%NM 8.56%EV -2.23%E -0.197%K -0.216%G +0.000% | 6.59I 15.17%NM 14.68%EV +1.15%E +0.174%K +0.205%G +0.002% | 3.4% | 2026-05-12 01:44 |
| Coral | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.57%EV -5.00%E -4.00%K -20.00%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.70%EV -4.83%E -0.439%K -0.483%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.73%EV -0.236%E -0.036%K -0.043%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-11 20:50 |
| Fanatics | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.72%EV -5.76%E -4.65%K -24.00%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.65%EV -4.83%E -0.439%K -0.483%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.64%EV -0.236%E -0.036%K -0.043%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-11 20:59 |
| Coolbet | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.50%EV -4.24%E -3.37%K -16.31%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.65%EV -4.83%E -0.439%K -0.483%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -7.91%E -1.32%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-11 22:00 |
| FanDuel | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.79%EV -5.76%E -4.65%K -24.00%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -4.83%E -0.439%K -0.483%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -7.91%E -1.32%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-11 22:19 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.94%EV -6.52%E -5.30%K -28.35%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -4.83%E -0.439%K -0.483%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV -7.91%E -1.32%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-11 22:04 |
| Bet Right | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.28%EV -5.76%E -4.65%K -24.00%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -4.83%E -0.439%K -0.483%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.23%EV -11.75%E -2.04%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-11 21:59 |
| SportsBet | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -7.28%E -5.97%K -33.09%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV -4.83%E -0.439%K -0.483%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -7.91%E -1.32%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-11 22:19 |
| Paddy Power | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -7.28%E -5.97%K -33.09%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV -4.83%E -0.439%K -0.483%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -7.91%E -1.32%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-11 22:20 |
| Pinnacle | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.49%EV -5.76%E -4.65%K -24.00%G +0.000% | 10.51I 9.51%NM 8.91%EV -9.07%E -0.863%K -0.953%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.60%EV -7.91%E -1.32%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-12 07:52 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.83%EV -5.00%E -4.00%K -20.00%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.91%EV -9.15%E -0.872%K -0.963%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV -11.75%E -2.04%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-11 21:59 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.00%E -4.00%K -20.00%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -13.48%E -1.35%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -7.91%E -1.32%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-11 21:00 |
| Neds | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.00%E -4.00%K -20.00%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -13.48%E -1.35%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -7.91%E -1.32%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-11 20:54 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.00%E -4.00%K -20.00%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -13.48%E -1.35%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -7.91%E -1.32%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-11 20:54 |
| BetMGM | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.00%E -4.00%K -20.00%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -13.48%E -1.35%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -7.91%E -1.32%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-11 20:55 |
| betfred_uk | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.95%EV -5.00%E -4.00%K -20.00%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV -13.48%E -1.35%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -15.58%E -2.83%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-11 21:57 |
| 888sport | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.28%E -5.97%K -33.09%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -13.48%E -1.35%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -7.91%E -1.32%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-12 09:09 |
| William Hill | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.28%E -5.97%K -33.09%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -13.48%E -1.35%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -7.91%E -1.32%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-12 09:14 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.28%E -5.97%K -33.09%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -13.48%E -1.35%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -7.91%E -1.32%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-12 09:09 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.28%E -5.97%K -33.09%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -13.48%E -1.35%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -7.91%E -1.32%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-12 09:09 |
| Everygame | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.95%EV -7.28%E -5.97%K -33.09%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.14%EV -13.48%E -1.35%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.90%EV -11.75%E -2.04%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-12 08:49 |
| BoyleSports | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.41%EV -7.28%E -5.97%K -33.09%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.08%EV -13.48%E -1.35%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.51%EV -15.58%E -2.83%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-11 22:03 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.17I 85.47%NM 75.20%EV -11.08%E -9.47%K -65.18%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.80%EV -13.48%E -1.35%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.00%EV -15.58%E -2.83%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-05-11 22:05 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.22I 81.97%NM 72.86%EV -7.28%E -5.97%K -33.09%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.36%EV -17.80%E -1.87%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.78%EV -23.26%E -4.65%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-05-11 22:44 |
| Betway | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.57%EV -7.28%E -5.97%K -33.09%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.24%EV -22.13%E -2.46%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.18%EV -0.236%E -0.036%K -0.043%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-12 09:54 |
| Sky Bet | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.67%EV -7.28%E -5.97%K -33.09%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.99%EV -22.13%E -2.46%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.34%EV -15.58%E -2.83%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-11 22:19 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.18I 84.75%NM 74.73%EV -10.32%E -8.75%K -57.34%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.80%EV -22.13%E -2.46%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 15.47%EV -12.51%E -2.20%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-05-11 22:04 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.36%EV -6.52%E -5.30%K -28.35%G +0.000% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 10.39%EV -23.86%E -2.71%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.24%EV -7.91%E -1.32%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-12 09:19 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.36%EV -6.52%E -5.30%K -28.35%G +0.000% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 10.39%EV -23.86%E -2.71%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.24%EV -7.91%E -1.32%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-12 09:19 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.16I 86.21%NM 73.32%EV -11.84%E -10.21%K -74.00%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.01%EV -26.46%E -3.11%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 16.68%EV -21.72%E -4.26%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 17.6% | 2026-05-11 22:04 |
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu
Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.
Plateformes d’échange (4)
| Opérateur | Local | Visiteur | Match nul | Marge ▲ | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.11I 90.09%NM 79.22% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.04% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 13.74% | 13.7% | 2026-05-12 07:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.11I 90.09%NM 79.22% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.04% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 13.74% | 13.7% | 2026-05-12 07:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.11I 90.09%NM 79.22% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.04% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 13.74% | 13.7% | 2026-05-12 07:54 |
| Smarkets | 1.09I 91.74%NM 78.40% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.12% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 14.48% | 17.0% | 2026-05-12 08:00 |