La escuela de los momiosEspañol
Sporting Lisbon v Gil Vicente
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Sporting Lisbon (Local)
Predicción 76.00%1.32momio equitativo
EV -4.24%
Ventaja -3.37%
Kelly -16.31%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.26
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
72.86%75.88%75.90%77.84%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.161.231.231.2686.21%81.61%81.63%79.37%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Gil Vicente (Visitante)
Predicción 8.65%11.56momio equitativo
EV +3.83%
Ventaja +0.319%
Kelly +0.348%
Crecimiento +0.013%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 12.00
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
7.78%8.75%8.69%10.39%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
8.5010.3510.0012.0011.76%9.66%10.00%8.33%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Empate
Predicción 15.35%6.52momio equitativo
EV +1.15%
Ventaja +0.174%
Kelly +0.205%
Crecimiento +0.002%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.59
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
14.18%15.37%15.41%17.78%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
5.005.926.006.5920.00%16.91%16.67%15.17%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (36 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tipico (DE) | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.84%EV -8.80%E -7.33%K -44.00%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV +3.83%E +0.319%K +0.348%G +0.013% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -0.236%E -0.036%K -0.043%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-11 23:39 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.99%EV -8.80%E -7.33%K -44.00%G +0.000% | 11.75I 8.51%NM 7.86%EV +1.66%E +0.142%K +0.155%G +0.003% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.15%EV -6.38%E -1.05%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-11 22:03 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.08%EV -8.04%E -6.65%K -38.29%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.11%EV -0.499%E -0.043%K -0.048%G +0.000% | 6.30I 15.87%NM 14.81%EV -3.31%E -0.525%K -0.624%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-12 09:49 |
| Betsson | 1.24I 80.65%NM 74.77%EV -5.76%E -4.65%K -24.00%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.06%EV -0.499%E -0.043%K -0.048%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.17%EV -17.12%E -3.17%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-12 09:14 |
| NordicBet | 1.24I 80.65%NM 74.77%EV -5.76%E -4.65%K -24.00%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.06%EV -0.499%E -0.043%K -0.048%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.17%EV -17.12%E -3.17%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-12 09:14 |
| NetBet (FR) | 1.17I 85.47%NM 77.31%EV -11.08%E -9.47%K -65.18%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 7.87%EV -0.499%E -0.043%K -0.048%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.83%EV -6.38%E -1.05%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-05-12 09:53 |
| 1xBet | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.76%EV -4.24%E -3.37%K -16.31%G +0.000% | 11.30I 8.85%NM 8.56%EV -2.23%E -0.197%K -0.216%G +0.000% | 6.59I 15.17%NM 14.68%EV +1.15%E +0.174%K +0.205%G +0.002% | 3.4% | 2026-05-12 01:44 |
| Coral | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.57%EV -5.00%E -4.00%K -20.00%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.70%EV -4.83%E -0.439%K -0.483%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.73%EV -0.236%E -0.036%K -0.043%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-11 20:50 |
| Fanatics | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.72%EV -5.76%E -4.65%K -24.00%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.65%EV -4.83%E -0.439%K -0.483%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.64%EV -0.236%E -0.036%K -0.043%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-11 20:59 |
| Coolbet | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.50%EV -4.24%E -3.37%K -16.31%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.65%EV -4.83%E -0.439%K -0.483%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -7.91%E -1.32%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-11 22:00 |
| FanDuel | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.79%EV -5.76%E -4.65%K -24.00%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -4.83%E -0.439%K -0.483%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -7.91%E -1.32%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-11 22:19 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.94%EV -6.52%E -5.30%K -28.35%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -4.83%E -0.439%K -0.483%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV -7.91%E -1.32%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-11 22:04 |
| Bet Right | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.28%EV -5.76%E -4.65%K -24.00%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -4.83%E -0.439%K -0.483%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.23%EV -11.75%E -2.04%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-11 21:59 |
| SportsBet | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -7.28%E -5.97%K -33.09%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV -4.83%E -0.439%K -0.483%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -7.91%E -1.32%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-11 22:19 |
| Paddy Power | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -7.28%E -5.97%K -33.09%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV -4.83%E -0.439%K -0.483%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -7.91%E -1.32%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-11 22:20 |
| Pinnacle | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.49%EV -5.76%E -4.65%K -24.00%G +0.000% | 10.51I 9.51%NM 8.91%EV -9.07%E -0.863%K -0.953%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.60%EV -7.91%E -1.32%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-12 07:52 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.83%EV -5.00%E -4.00%K -20.00%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.91%EV -9.15%E -0.872%K -0.963%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV -11.75%E -2.04%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-11 21:59 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.00%E -4.00%K -20.00%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -13.48%E -1.35%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -7.91%E -1.32%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-11 21:00 |
| Neds | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.00%E -4.00%K -20.00%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -13.48%E -1.35%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -7.91%E -1.32%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-11 20:54 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.00%E -4.00%K -20.00%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -13.48%E -1.35%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -7.91%E -1.32%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-11 20:54 |
| BetMGM | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.00%E -4.00%K -20.00%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -13.48%E -1.35%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -7.91%E -1.32%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-11 20:55 |
| betfred_uk | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.95%EV -5.00%E -4.00%K -20.00%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV -13.48%E -1.35%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -15.58%E -2.83%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-11 21:57 |
| 888sport | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.28%E -5.97%K -33.09%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -13.48%E -1.35%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -7.91%E -1.32%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-12 09:09 |
| William Hill | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.28%E -5.97%K -33.09%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -13.48%E -1.35%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -7.91%E -1.32%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-12 09:14 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.28%E -5.97%K -33.09%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -13.48%E -1.35%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -7.91%E -1.32%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-12 09:09 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.28%E -5.97%K -33.09%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -13.48%E -1.35%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -7.91%E -1.32%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-12 09:09 |
| Everygame | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.95%EV -7.28%E -5.97%K -33.09%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.14%EV -13.48%E -1.35%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.90%EV -11.75%E -2.04%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-12 08:49 |
| BoyleSports | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.41%EV -7.28%E -5.97%K -33.09%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.08%EV -13.48%E -1.35%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.51%EV -15.58%E -2.83%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-11 22:03 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.17I 85.47%NM 75.20%EV -11.08%E -9.47%K -65.18%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.80%EV -13.48%E -1.35%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.00%EV -15.58%E -2.83%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-05-11 22:05 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.22I 81.97%NM 72.86%EV -7.28%E -5.97%K -33.09%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.36%EV -17.80%E -1.87%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.78%EV -23.26%E -4.65%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-05-11 22:44 |
| Betway | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.57%EV -7.28%E -5.97%K -33.09%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.24%EV -22.13%E -2.46%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.18%EV -0.236%E -0.036%K -0.043%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-12 09:54 |
| Sky Bet | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.67%EV -7.28%E -5.97%K -33.09%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.99%EV -22.13%E -2.46%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.34%EV -15.58%E -2.83%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-11 22:19 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.18I 84.75%NM 74.73%EV -10.32%E -8.75%K -57.34%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.80%EV -22.13%E -2.46%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 15.47%EV -12.51%E -2.20%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-05-11 22:04 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.36%EV -6.52%E -5.30%K -28.35%G +0.000% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 10.39%EV -23.86%E -2.71%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.24%EV -7.91%E -1.32%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-12 09:19 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.36%EV -6.52%E -5.30%K -28.35%G +0.000% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 10.39%EV -23.86%E -2.71%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.24%EV -7.91%E -1.32%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-12 09:19 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.16I 86.21%NM 73.32%EV -11.84%E -10.21%K -74.00%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.01%EV -26.46%E -3.11%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 16.68%EV -21.72%E -4.26%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 17.6% | 2026-05-11 22:04 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (4)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.11I 90.09%NM 79.22% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.04% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 13.74% | 13.7% | 2026-05-12 07:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.11I 90.09%NM 79.22% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.04% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 13.74% | 13.7% | 2026-05-12 07:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.11I 90.09%NM 79.22% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.04% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 13.74% | 13.7% | 2026-05-12 07:54 |
| Smarkets | 1.09I 91.74%NM 78.40% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.12% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 14.48% | 17.0% | 2026-05-12 08:00 |