Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sporting Lisbon v Estoril

Kickoff: 2026-02-27 20:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sporting Lisbon (Local)

Prediction 79.88%1.25fair odd
EV -2.54%
Edge -2.08%
Kelly -11.56%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
78.28%79.95%79.89%81.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.121.171.171.2289.29%85.68%85.47%81.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Estoril (Visit)

Prediction 7.56%13.22fair odd
EV +6.63%
Edge +0.470%
Kelly +0.506%
Growth +0.034%

assuming max odds 14.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.60%7.60%7.55%9.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
10.0012.2912.5014.1010.00%8.14%8.00%7.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 12.56%7.96fair odd
EV +9.86%
Edge +1.13%
Kelly +1.27%
Growth +0.125%

assuming max odds 8.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.80%12.44%12.56%13.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.757.427.408.7514.81%13.47%13.51%11.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sporting Lisbon (Local): 79.88%; Estoril (Visit): 7.56%; Draw: 12.56%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.96. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.86%.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Betclic (FR)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.48%EV -7.34%E -6.32%K -45.85%G +0.000%12.25I 8.16%NM 7.72%EV -7.36%E -0.601%K -0.654%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.80%EV +9.86%E +1.13%K +1.27%G +0.125%5.8%2026-02-27 20:24
LowVig.ag🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 81.33%EV -5.74%E -4.86%K -31.88%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.38%EV -1.69%E -0.130%K -0.141%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.29%EV +6.72%E +0.790%K +0.896%G +0.060%4.2%2026-02-27 20:39
BetOnline.ag🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 81.33%EV -5.74%E -4.86%K -31.88%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.38%EV -1.69%E -0.130%K -0.141%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.29%EV +6.72%E +0.790%K +0.896%G +0.060%4.2%2026-02-27 20:39
Sky Bet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 81.85%EV -8.93%E -7.84%K -63.81%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.18%EV -1.69%E -0.130%K -0.141%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.98%EV +6.72%E +0.790%K +0.896%G +0.060%7.2%2026-02-27 20:05
Winamax (DE)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 80.95%EV -8.14%E -7.07%K -54.23%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.10%EV -13.03%E -1.13%K -1.24%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.95%EV +6.72%E +0.790%K +0.896%G +0.060%7.4%2026-02-27 20:04
Pinnacle🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.76%EV -6.54%E -5.59%K -38.46%G +0.000%14.10I 7.09%NM 6.78%EV +6.63%E +0.470%K +0.506%G +0.034%8.35I 11.98%NM 11.46%EV +4.83%E +0.579%K +0.658%G +0.032%4.5%2026-02-27 20:34
Bovada🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.44%EV -8.14%E -7.07%K -54.23%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.20%EV -1.69%E -0.130%K -0.141%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.35%EV +3.58%E +0.434%K +0.494%G +0.018%6.8%2026-02-27 20:38
Everygame🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.15%EV -8.14%E -7.07%K -54.23%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.18%EV -1.69%E -0.130%K -0.141%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.67%EV +0.440%E +0.055%K +0.063%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-27 20:09
Winamax (FR)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 80.25%EV -8.93%E -7.84%K -63.81%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.32%EV -16.81%E -1.53%K -1.68%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.44%EV +0.440%E +0.055%K +0.063%G +0.000%9.3%2026-02-27 20:04
BetUS🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.29%EV -5.74%E -4.86%K -31.88%G +0.000%12.40I 8.06%NM 7.64%EV -6.23%E -0.502%K -0.546%G +0.000%7.85I 12.74%NM 12.07%EV -1.44%E -0.184%K -0.211%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-27 20:39
Tipico (DE)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.33%EV -8.14%E -7.07%K -54.23%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.68%EV +5.87%E +0.420%K +0.452%G +0.027%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.99%EV -2.07%E -0.265%K -0.305%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-27 20:24
1xBet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 79.53%EV -2.54%E -2.08%K -11.56%G +0.000%12.20I 8.20%NM 7.95%EV -7.74%E -0.634%K -0.691%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.52%EV -2.70%E -0.348%K -0.400%G +0.000%3.1%2026-02-27 20:34
Marathon Bet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.54%EV -7.34%E -6.32%K -45.85%G +0.000%12.75I 7.84%NM 7.33%EV -3.58%E -0.281%K -0.305%G +0.000%7.70I 12.99%NM 12.13%EV -3.33%E -0.432%K -0.496%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-27 20:39
Coolbet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.54%EV -5.74%E -4.86%K -31.88%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.79%EV +5.87%E +0.420%K +0.452%G +0.027%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.67%EV -5.84%E -0.778%K -0.898%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-27 20:29
Coral🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.80%EV -4.14%E -3.45%K -20.70%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.60%EV -16.81%E -1.53%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.61%EV -5.84%E -0.778%K -0.898%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-27 05:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.80%EV -4.14%E -3.45%K -20.70%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.60%EV -16.81%E -1.53%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.61%EV -5.84%E -0.778%K -0.898%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-27 05:34
Svenska Spel🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.12%EV -5.74%E -4.86%K -31.88%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.27%EV -1.69%E -0.130%K -0.141%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.61%EV -5.84%E -0.778%K -0.898%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-27 19:54
ATG (SE)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.12%EV -5.74%E -4.86%K -31.88%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.27%EV -1.69%E -0.130%K -0.141%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.61%EV -5.84%E -0.778%K -0.898%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-27 19:54
BetMGM🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.48%EV -4.14%E -3.45%K -20.70%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.97%EV -20.60%E -1.96%K -2.17%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.56%EV -5.84%E -0.778%K -0.898%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-27 05:35
Fanatics🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.64%EV -5.74%E -4.86%K -31.88%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -9.25%E -0.771%K -0.841%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.53%EV -5.84%E -0.778%K -0.898%G +0.000%6.4%2026-02-27 20:29
DraftKings🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.64%EV -5.74%E -4.86%K -31.88%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -9.25%E -0.771%K -0.841%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.53%EV -5.84%E -0.778%K -0.898%G +0.000%6.4%2026-02-27 20:30
BoyleSports🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.22%EV -6.54%E -5.59%K -38.46%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.43%EV -16.81%E -1.53%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -5.84%E -0.778%K -0.898%G +0.000%7.9%2026-02-27 20:19
SportsBet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 81.07%EV -8.93%E -7.84%K -63.81%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.60%EV +5.87%E +0.420%K +0.452%G +0.027%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.32%EV -5.84%E -0.778%K -0.898%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-27 20:04
Paddy Power🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 81.07%EV -8.93%E -7.84%K -63.81%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.60%EV +5.87%E +0.420%K +0.452%G +0.027%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.32%EV -5.84%E -0.778%K -0.898%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-27 20:03
FanDuel🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 80.80%EV -9.73%E -8.61%K -74.87%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.02%EV -1.69%E -0.130%K -0.141%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV -5.84%E -0.778%K -0.898%G +0.000%9.5%2026-02-27 20:04
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 78.70%EV -7.34%E -6.32%K -45.85%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.13%EV -24.38%E -2.44%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV -5.84%E -0.778%K -0.898%G +0.000%9.5%2026-02-27 20:25
Betsson🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.89%EV -6.54%E -5.59%K -38.46%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.48%EV -5.47%E -0.438%K -0.476%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.63%EV -7.09%E -0.958%K -1.11%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-27 20:19
NordicBet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.89%EV -6.54%E -5.59%K -38.46%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.48%EV -5.47%E -0.438%K -0.476%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.63%EV -7.09%E -0.958%K -1.11%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-27 20:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.28%EV -4.94%E -4.15%K -26.00%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.87%EV -20.60%E -1.96%K -2.17%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.85%EV -8.98%E -1.24%K -1.44%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-27 05:34
Neds🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.28%EV -4.94%E -4.15%K -26.00%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.87%EV -20.60%E -1.96%K -2.17%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.85%EV -8.98%E -1.24%K -1.44%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-27 05:35
PMU (FR)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 80.60%EV -10.53%E -9.40%K -87.76%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.94%EV -1.69%E -0.130%K -0.141%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.45%EV -8.98%E -1.24%K -1.44%G +0.000%10.8%2026-02-27 20:04
Betr (AU)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.41%EV -5.74%E -4.86%K -31.88%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -1.69%E -0.130%K -0.141%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -12.11%E -1.73%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-27 20:29
Unibet (UK)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.95%EV -6.54%E -5.59%K -38.46%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.68%EV +5.87%E +0.420%K +0.452%G +0.027%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.36%EV -12.11%E -1.73%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-27 20:29
Bet Right🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.55%EV -6.54%E -5.59%K -38.46%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.16%EV -1.69%E -0.130%K -0.141%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -12.11%E -1.73%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-27 20:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.55%EV -6.54%E -5.59%K -38.46%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.16%EV -1.69%E -0.130%K -0.141%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -12.11%E -1.73%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-27 20:29
BetRivers🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.32%EV -6.54%E -5.59%K -38.46%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.42%EV -5.47%E -0.438%K -0.476%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV -12.11%E -1.73%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-27 19:54
Grosvenor🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.32%EV -6.54%E -5.59%K -38.46%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.42%EV -5.47%E -0.438%K -0.476%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV -12.11%E -1.73%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-27 19:54
Casumo🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.32%EV -6.54%E -5.59%K -38.46%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.42%EV -5.47%E -0.438%K -0.476%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV -12.11%E -1.73%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-27 19:55
TABtouch🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.32%EV -6.54%E -5.59%K -38.46%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.42%EV -5.47%E -0.438%K -0.476%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV -12.11%E -1.73%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-27 19:54
Bally Bet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.32%EV -6.54%E -5.59%K -38.46%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.42%EV -5.47%E -0.438%K -0.476%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV -12.11%E -1.73%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-27 19:54
betPARX🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.32%EV -6.54%E -5.59%K -38.46%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.42%EV -5.47%E -0.438%K -0.476%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV -12.11%E -1.73%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-27 19:54
Betway🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.38%EV -5.74%E -4.86%K -31.88%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV -16.81%E -1.53%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.21%EV -12.11%E -1.73%K -2.02%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-27 20:14
888sport🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.38%EV -5.74%E -4.86%K -31.88%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV -16.81%E -1.53%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.21%EV -12.11%E -1.73%K -2.02%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-27 20:39
William Hill🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.38%EV -5.74%E -4.86%K -31.88%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV -16.81%E -1.53%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.21%EV -12.11%E -1.73%K -2.02%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-27 20:38
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.38%EV -5.74%E -4.86%K -31.88%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV -16.81%E -1.53%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.21%EV -12.11%E -1.73%K -2.02%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-27 20:39
888sport (SE)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.38%EV -5.74%E -4.86%K -31.88%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV -16.81%E -1.53%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.21%EV -12.11%E -1.73%K -2.02%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-27 20:39
Unibet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 79.46%EV -7.34%E -6.32%K -45.85%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.37%EV -5.47%E -0.438%K -0.476%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -12.11%E -1.73%K -2.02%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-27 19:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 79.46%EV -7.34%E -6.32%K -45.85%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.37%EV -5.47%E -0.438%K -0.476%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -12.11%E -1.73%K -2.02%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-27 19:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 79.46%EV -7.34%E -6.32%K -45.85%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.37%EV -5.47%E -0.438%K -0.476%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -12.11%E -1.73%K -2.02%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-27 19:54
Unibet (NL)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 79.46%EV -7.34%E -6.32%K -45.85%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.37%EV -5.47%E -0.438%K -0.476%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -12.11%E -1.73%K -2.02%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-27 19:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 79.46%EV -7.34%E -6.32%K -45.85%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.37%EV -5.47%E -0.438%K -0.476%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -12.11%E -1.73%K -2.02%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-27 19:54
Virgin Bet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 79.36%EV -8.14%E -7.07%K -54.23%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.61%EV -9.25%E -0.771%K -0.841%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -12.11%E -1.73%K -2.02%G +0.000%9.6%2026-02-27 19:54
Bet Victor🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 79.36%EV -8.14%E -7.07%K -54.23%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.61%EV -9.25%E -0.771%K -0.841%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -12.11%E -1.73%K -2.02%G +0.000%9.6%2026-02-27 20:19
NetBet (FR)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 79.24%EV -8.93%E -7.84%K -63.81%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.86%EV -13.03%E -1.13%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.90%EV -12.11%E -1.73%K -2.02%G +0.000%10.7%2026-02-27 20:39
LeoVegas🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 79.27%EV -9.73%E -8.61%K -74.87%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.46%EV -9.25%E -0.771%K -0.841%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.27%EV -15.25%E -2.26%K -2.65%G +0.000%11.6%2026-02-27 19:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.20I 83.33%NM 82.99%17.50I 5.71%NM 5.69%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.32%0.4%2026-02-27 20:34
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.20I 83.33%NM 82.99%17.50I 5.71%NM 5.69%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.32%0.4%2026-02-27 20:39
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.20I 83.33%NM 82.99%17.50I 5.71%NM 5.69%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.32%0.4%2026-02-27 20:35
Matchbook1.20I 83.33%NM 82.99%17.50I 5.71%NM 5.69%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.32%0.4%2026-02-27 20:34
Smarkets1.19I 84.03%NM 82.97%17.01I 5.88%NM 5.80%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.22%1.3%2026-02-27 20:34