A Escola das Odds

Sporting Lisbon v Benfica

Início: 2026-04-19 17:19 UTC

Final: Sporting Lisbon 1–2 Benfica

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

50 casas de apostas (16 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: IQM

Sporting Lisbon (Local)

Previsão 47.68%2.10odd justa
EV -3.68%
Vantagem -1.82%
Kelly -3.61%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.02

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
45.14%47.92%47.44%50.03%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
1.871.941.952.0253.48%51.42%51.28%49.50%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Benfica (Visitante)

Previsão 25.60%3.91odd justa
EV +2.41%
Vantagem +0.602%
Kelly +0.803%
Crescimento +0.019%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.00

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
23.42%25.41%25.83%27.10%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
3.303.613.524.0030.30%27.71%28.37%25.00%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Empate

Previsão 26.71%3.74odd justa
EV -1.16%
Vantagem -0.312%
Kelly -0.428%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.70

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
24.90%26.67%26.73%28.74%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
3.003.493.503.7033.33%28.67%28.57%27.03%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Odds das casas de apostas (50 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
Coral1.95I 51.28%NM 48.52%EV -7.02%E -3.60%K -7.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV +2.41%E +0.602%K +0.803%G +0.019%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -9.17%E -2.70%K -3.82%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-19 17:16
LowVig.ag1.88I 53.19%NM 50.01%EV -10.36%E -5.51%K -11.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.50%EV +2.41%E +0.602%K +0.803%G +0.019%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.48%EV -5.16%E -1.45%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-19 17:15
BetOnline.ag1.88I 53.19%NM 50.01%EV -10.36%E -5.51%K -11.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.50%EV +2.41%E +0.602%K +0.803%G +0.019%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.48%EV -5.16%E -1.45%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-19 17:15
BetMGM1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -8.93%E -4.67%K -9.81%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV +2.41%E +0.602%K +0.803%G +0.019%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -9.17%E -2.70%K -3.82%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-19 17:14
Neds1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -8.93%E -4.67%K -9.81%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV +2.41%E +0.602%K +0.803%G +0.019%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -9.17%E -2.70%K -3.82%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-19 17:14
Ladbrokes (AU)1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -8.93%E -4.67%K -9.81%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV +2.41%E +0.602%K +0.803%G +0.019%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -9.17%E -2.70%K -3.82%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-19 17:14
Ladbrokes (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -8.93%E -4.67%K -9.81%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV +2.41%E +0.602%K +0.803%G +0.019%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -9.17%E -2.70%K -3.82%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-19 17:15
DraftKings1.91I 52.36%NM 49.28%EV -8.93%E -4.67%K -9.81%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.83%EV +1.13%E +0.286%K +0.382%G +0.004%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -6.50%E -1.86%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-19 17:14
Unibet (UK)1.90I 52.63%NM 49.63%EV -9.40%E -4.95%K -10.45%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.18%EV -0.152%E -0.039%K -0.052%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -3.83%E -1.06%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-19 17:15
Tipico (DE)1.87I 53.48%NM 50.03%EV -10.83%E -5.79%K -12.45%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -0.152%E -0.039%K -0.052%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -3.83%E -1.06%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-19 17:15
Betway1.91I 52.36%NM 48.28%EV -8.93%E -4.67%K -9.81%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.59%EV -3.99%E -1.06%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -9.17%E -2.70%K -3.82%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-19 17:15
FanDuel2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -4.63%E -2.32%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -5.27%E -1.43%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -9.17%E -2.70%K -3.82%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-19 17:16
Everygame2.00I 50.00%NM 47.00%EV -4.63%E -2.32%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.75%EV -6.55%E -1.80%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.25%EV -7.83%E -2.27%K -3.20%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-19 17:01
Svenska Spel2.00I 50.00%NM 47.54%EV -4.63%E -2.32%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.41%EV -7.83%E -2.18%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.05%EV -2.49%E -0.682%K -0.940%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-19 17:15
ATG (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.54%EV -4.63%E -2.32%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.41%EV -7.83%E -2.18%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.05%EV -2.49%E -0.682%K -0.940%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-19 17:16
Coolbet2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.63%E -2.32%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -7.83%E -2.18%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -3.83%E -1.06%K -1.47%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-19 17:14
Fanatics2.00I 50.00%NM 47.01%EV -4.63%E -2.32%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -7.83%E -2.18%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -6.50%E -1.86%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-19 17:10
SportsBet2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -4.63%E -2.32%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -7.83%E -2.18%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -9.17%E -2.70%K -3.82%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-19 17:15
Paddy Power2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -4.63%E -2.32%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -7.83%E -2.18%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -9.17%E -2.70%K -3.82%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-19 17:15
Betr (AU)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -7.02%E -3.60%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -7.83%E -2.18%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -6.50%E -1.86%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-19 17:14
888sport1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -7.02%E -3.60%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -7.83%E -2.18%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -9.17%E -2.70%K -3.82%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-19 17:14
William Hill1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -7.02%E -3.60%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -7.83%E -2.18%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -9.17%E -2.70%K -3.82%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-19 17:15
888sport (SE)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -7.02%E -3.60%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -7.83%E -2.18%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -9.17%E -2.70%K -3.82%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-19 17:14
Mr Green (SE)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -7.02%E -3.60%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -7.83%E -2.18%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -9.17%E -2.70%K -3.82%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-19 17:14
Bet Right1.97I 50.76%NM 47.22%EV -6.06%E -3.08%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -9.11%E -2.57%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -6.50%E -1.86%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-19 17:14
Unibet (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -4.63%E -2.32%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -10.39%E -2.97%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -6.50%E -1.86%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-19 17:14
PointsBet (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -4.63%E -2.32%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -10.39%E -2.97%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -6.50%E -1.86%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-19 17:14
Grosvenor1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -7.02%E -3.60%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -10.39%E -2.97%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -3.83%E -1.06%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-19 17:15
Casumo1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -7.02%E -3.60%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -10.39%E -2.97%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -3.83%E -1.06%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-19 17:15
Betclic (FR)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -7.02%E -3.60%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -10.39%E -2.97%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -3.83%E -1.06%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-19 17:15
Sky Bet1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -7.02%E -3.60%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -10.39%E -2.97%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -3.83%E -1.06%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-19 17:16
Bally Bet1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -7.02%E -3.60%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -10.39%E -2.97%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -3.83%E -1.06%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-19 17:15
betPARX1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -7.02%E -3.60%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -10.39%E -2.97%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -3.83%E -1.06%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-19 17:15
TABtouch1.94I 51.55%NM 47.60%EV -7.49%E -3.86%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.38%EV -10.39%E -2.97%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.01%EV -5.16%E -1.45%K -2.02%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-19 17:15
Unibet1.93I 51.81%NM 47.73%EV -7.97%E -4.13%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -10.39%E -2.97%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.95%EV -5.16%E -1.45%K -2.02%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-19 17:15
Unibet (NL)1.93I 51.81%NM 47.73%EV -7.97%E -4.13%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -10.39%E -2.97%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.95%EV -5.16%E -1.45%K -2.02%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-19 17:16
Unibet (SE)1.93I 51.81%NM 47.73%EV -7.97%E -4.13%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -10.39%E -2.97%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.95%EV -5.16%E -1.45%K -2.02%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-19 17:16
betfred_uk1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -7.02%E -3.60%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -10.39%E -2.97%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -9.17%E -2.70%K -3.82%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-19 17:14
Bet Victor1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -7.02%E -3.60%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -10.39%E -2.97%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -9.17%E -2.70%K -3.82%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-19 17:03
Betsson2.02I 49.50%NM 45.69%EV -3.68%E -1.82%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -11.67%E -3.38%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.55%EV -10.51%E -3.14%K -4.47%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-19 17:15
NordicBet2.02I 49.50%NM 45.69%EV -3.68%E -1.82%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -11.67%E -3.38%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.55%EV -10.51%E -3.14%K -4.47%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-19 17:15
LeoVegas (SE)1.93I 51.81%NM 47.55%EV -7.97%E -4.13%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.60%EV -11.67%E -3.38%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -5.16%E -1.45%K -2.02%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-19 17:15
LiveScore Bet1.93I 51.81%NM 47.55%EV -7.97%E -4.13%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.60%EV -11.67%E -3.38%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -5.16%E -1.45%K -2.02%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-19 17:15
Winamax (DE)1.92I 52.08%NM 47.99%EV -8.45%E -4.40%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.10%EV -12.95%E -3.81%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -1.16%E -0.312%K -0.428%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-19 17:15
Virgin Bet1.91I 52.36%NM 47.45%EV -8.93%E -4.67%K -9.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.66%EV -12.95%E -3.81%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.89%EV -6.50%E -1.86%K -2.60%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-19 17:16
PMU (FR)1.91I 52.36%NM 47.45%EV -8.93%E -4.67%K -9.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.66%EV -12.95%E -3.81%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.89%EV -6.50%E -1.86%K -2.60%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-19 17:16
BoyleSports1.91I 52.36%NM 47.09%EV -8.93%E -4.67%K -9.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -12.95%E -3.81%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -9.17%E -2.70%K -3.82%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-19 17:04
LeoVegas1.88I 53.19%NM 47.67%EV -10.36%E -5.51%K -11.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.36%EV -12.95%E -3.81%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.98%EV -7.83%E -2.27%K -3.20%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-19 17:15
Winamax (FR)1.90I 52.63%NM 47.73%EV -9.40%E -4.95%K -10.45%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.07%EV -14.23%E -4.25%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -3.83%E -1.06%K -1.47%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-19 17:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 45.14%EV -8.93%E -4.67%K -9.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.13%EV -15.51%E -4.70%K -6.74%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.74%EV -19.86%E -6.62%K -9.93%G +0.000%16.0%2026-04-19 17:16
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.00I 50.00%NM 49.40%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.53%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.07%1.2%2026-04-19 17:15
Smarkets1.97I 50.76%NM 49.78%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.35%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.87%2.0%2026-04-19 17:16
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.96I 51.02%NM 49.91%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.29%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.80%2.2%2026-04-19 17:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.95I 51.28%NM 50.04%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.23%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.73%2.5%2026-04-19 17:16
Kalshi1.43I 69.93%NM 42.90%2.04I 49.02%NM 30.07%2.27I 44.05%NM 27.03%63.0%2026-04-19 17:16