La escuela de los momiosEspañol
Sporting Lisbon v Benfica
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Sporting Lisbon (Local)
Predicción 47.68%2.10momio equitativo
EV -3.68%
Ventaja -1.82%
Kelly -3.61%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.02
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
45.14%47.92%47.44%50.03%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.871.941.952.0253.48%51.42%51.28%49.50%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Benfica (Visitante)
Predicción 25.60%3.91momio equitativo
EV +2.41%
Ventaja +0.602%
Kelly +0.803%
Crecimiento +0.019%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.00
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.42%25.41%25.83%27.10%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.303.613.524.0030.30%27.71%28.37%25.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Empate
Predicción 26.71%3.74momio equitativo
EV -1.16%
Ventaja -0.312%
Kelly -0.428%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.70
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.90%26.67%26.73%28.74%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.493.503.7033.33%28.67%28.57%27.03%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (50 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coral | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.52%EV -7.02%E -3.60%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV +2.41%E +0.602%K +0.803%G +0.019% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -9.17%E -2.70%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-19 17:16 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.01%EV -10.36%E -5.51%K -11.77%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.50%EV +2.41%E +0.602%K +0.803%G +0.019% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.48%EV -5.16%E -1.45%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-19 17:15 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.01%EV -10.36%E -5.51%K -11.77%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.50%EV +2.41%E +0.602%K +0.803%G +0.019% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.48%EV -5.16%E -1.45%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-19 17:15 |
| BetMGM | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -8.93%E -4.67%K -9.81%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV +2.41%E +0.602%K +0.803%G +0.019% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -9.17%E -2.70%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-19 17:14 |
| Neds | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -8.93%E -4.67%K -9.81%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV +2.41%E +0.602%K +0.803%G +0.019% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -9.17%E -2.70%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-19 17:14 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -8.93%E -4.67%K -9.81%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV +2.41%E +0.602%K +0.803%G +0.019% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -9.17%E -2.70%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-19 17:14 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -8.93%E -4.67%K -9.81%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV +2.41%E +0.602%K +0.803%G +0.019% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -9.17%E -2.70%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-19 17:15 |
| DraftKings | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.28%EV -8.93%E -4.67%K -9.81%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.83%EV +1.13%E +0.286%K +0.382%G +0.004% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -6.50%E -1.86%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-19 17:14 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.63%EV -9.40%E -4.95%K -10.45%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.18%EV -0.152%E -0.039%K -0.052%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -3.83%E -1.06%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-19 17:15 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.03%EV -10.83%E -5.79%K -12.45%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -0.152%E -0.039%K -0.052%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -3.83%E -1.06%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-19 17:15 |
| Betway | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.28%EV -8.93%E -4.67%K -9.81%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.59%EV -3.99%E -1.06%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -9.17%E -2.70%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-19 17:15 |
| FanDuel | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -4.63%E -2.32%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -5.27%E -1.43%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -9.17%E -2.70%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-19 17:16 |
| Everygame | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.00%EV -4.63%E -2.32%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.75%EV -6.55%E -1.80%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.25%EV -7.83%E -2.27%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-19 17:01 |
| Svenska Spel | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.54%EV -4.63%E -2.32%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.41%EV -7.83%E -2.18%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.05%EV -2.49%E -0.682%K -0.940%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-19 17:15 |
| ATG (SE) | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.54%EV -4.63%E -2.32%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.41%EV -7.83%E -2.18%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.05%EV -2.49%E -0.682%K -0.940%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-19 17:16 |
| Coolbet | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.63%E -2.32%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -7.83%E -2.18%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -3.83%E -1.06%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-19 17:14 |
| Fanatics | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.01%EV -4.63%E -2.32%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -7.83%E -2.18%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -6.50%E -1.86%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-19 17:10 |
| SportsBet | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -4.63%E -2.32%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -7.83%E -2.18%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -9.17%E -2.70%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-19 17:15 |
| Paddy Power | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -4.63%E -2.32%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -7.83%E -2.18%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -9.17%E -2.70%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-19 17:15 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -7.02%E -3.60%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -7.83%E -2.18%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -6.50%E -1.86%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-19 17:14 |
| 888sport | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -7.02%E -3.60%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -7.83%E -2.18%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -9.17%E -2.70%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-19 17:14 |
| William Hill | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -7.02%E -3.60%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -7.83%E -2.18%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -9.17%E -2.70%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-19 17:15 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -7.02%E -3.60%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -7.83%E -2.18%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -9.17%E -2.70%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-19 17:14 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -7.02%E -3.60%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -7.83%E -2.18%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -9.17%E -2.70%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-19 17:14 |
| Bet Right | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.22%EV -6.06%E -3.08%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -9.11%E -2.57%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -6.50%E -1.86%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-19 17:14 |
| Unibet (FR) | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -4.63%E -2.32%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -10.39%E -2.97%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -6.50%E -1.86%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-19 17:14 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -4.63%E -2.32%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -10.39%E -2.97%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -6.50%E -1.86%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-19 17:14 |
| Grosvenor | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -7.02%E -3.60%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -10.39%E -2.97%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -3.83%E -1.06%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-19 17:15 |
| Casumo | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -7.02%E -3.60%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -10.39%E -2.97%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -3.83%E -1.06%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-19 17:15 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -7.02%E -3.60%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -10.39%E -2.97%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -3.83%E -1.06%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-19 17:15 |
| Sky Bet | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -7.02%E -3.60%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -10.39%E -2.97%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -3.83%E -1.06%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-19 17:16 |
| Bally Bet | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -7.02%E -3.60%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -10.39%E -2.97%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -3.83%E -1.06%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-19 17:15 |
| betPARX | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -7.02%E -3.60%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -10.39%E -2.97%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -3.83%E -1.06%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-19 17:15 |
| TABtouch | 1.94I 51.55%NM 47.60%EV -7.49%E -3.86%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.38%EV -10.39%E -2.97%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.01%EV -5.16%E -1.45%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-19 17:15 |
| Unibet | 1.93I 51.81%NM 47.73%EV -7.97%E -4.13%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -10.39%E -2.97%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.95%EV -5.16%E -1.45%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-19 17:15 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.93I 51.81%NM 47.73%EV -7.97%E -4.13%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -10.39%E -2.97%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.95%EV -5.16%E -1.45%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-19 17:16 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.93I 51.81%NM 47.73%EV -7.97%E -4.13%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -10.39%E -2.97%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.95%EV -5.16%E -1.45%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-19 17:16 |
| betfred_uk | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -7.02%E -3.60%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -10.39%E -2.97%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -9.17%E -2.70%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-19 17:14 |
| Bet Victor | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -7.02%E -3.60%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -10.39%E -2.97%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -9.17%E -2.70%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-19 17:03 |
| Betsson | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.69%EV -3.68%E -1.82%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -11.67%E -3.38%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.55%EV -10.51%E -3.14%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-19 17:15 |
| NordicBet | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.69%EV -3.68%E -1.82%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -11.67%E -3.38%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.55%EV -10.51%E -3.14%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-19 17:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.93I 51.81%NM 47.55%EV -7.97%E -4.13%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.60%EV -11.67%E -3.38%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -5.16%E -1.45%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-19 17:15 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.93I 51.81%NM 47.55%EV -7.97%E -4.13%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.60%EV -11.67%E -3.38%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -5.16%E -1.45%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-19 17:15 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.92I 52.08%NM 47.99%EV -8.45%E -4.40%K -9.18%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.10%EV -12.95%E -3.81%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -1.16%E -0.312%K -0.428%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-19 17:15 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.45%EV -8.93%E -4.67%K -9.81%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.66%EV -12.95%E -3.81%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.89%EV -6.50%E -1.86%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-04-19 17:16 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.45%EV -8.93%E -4.67%K -9.81%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.66%EV -12.95%E -3.81%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.89%EV -6.50%E -1.86%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-04-19 17:16 |
| BoyleSports | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.09%EV -8.93%E -4.67%K -9.81%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -12.95%E -3.81%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -9.17%E -2.70%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-04-19 17:04 |
| LeoVegas | 1.88I 53.19%NM 47.67%EV -10.36%E -5.51%K -11.77%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.36%EV -12.95%E -3.81%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.98%EV -7.83%E -2.27%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-04-19 17:15 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.90I 52.63%NM 47.73%EV -9.40%E -4.95%K -10.45%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.07%EV -14.23%E -4.25%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -3.83%E -1.06%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-04-19 17:15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.91I 52.36%NM 45.14%EV -8.93%E -4.67%K -9.81%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.13%EV -15.51%E -4.70%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.74%EV -19.86%E -6.62%K -9.93%G +0.000% | 16.0% | 2026-04-19 17:16 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.40% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.53% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.07% | 1.2% | 2026-04-19 17:15 |
| Smarkets | 1.97I 50.76%NM 49.78% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.35% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.87% | 2.0% | 2026-04-19 17:16 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.96I 51.02%NM 49.91% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.29% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.80% | 2.2% | 2026-04-19 17:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.95I 51.28%NM 50.04% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.23% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.73% | 2.5% | 2026-04-19 17:16 |
| Kalshi | 1.43I 69.93%NM 42.90% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 30.07% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 27.03% | 63.0% | 2026-04-19 17:16 |