Language:English
Santa Clara v Nacional
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Santa Clara (Local)
Prediction 45.47%2.20fair odd
EV -3.61%
Edge -1.70%
Kelly -3.23%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.12
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.78%45.63%45.49%48.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.832.012.022.1254.64%49.68%49.38%47.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Nacional (Visit)
Prediction 26.01%3.84fair odd
EV +0.156%
Edge +0.040%
Kelly +0.055%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.85
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.71%25.86%25.98%27.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.593.603.8531.25%27.86%27.78%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 28.52%3.51fair odd
EV -2.75%
Edge -0.805%
Kelly -1.14%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.41
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.13%28.51%28.53%29.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.263.253.4134.72%30.67%30.77%29.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Santa Clara (Local): 45.47%; Nacional (Visit): 26.01%; Draw: 28.52%. For Nacional (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.84. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.156%.
Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.44%EV -9.07%E -4.53%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.65%EV +0.156%E +0.040%K +0.055%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.91%EV -3.03%E -0.891%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-05 12:28 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.44%EV -13.16%E -6.89%K -14.46%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -1.15%E -0.301%K -0.409%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -3.03%E -0.891%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-05 12:28 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.44%EV -13.16%E -6.89%K -14.46%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -1.15%E -0.301%K -0.409%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -3.03%E -0.891%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-05 12:29 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.57%EV -13.62%E -7.17%K -15.13%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV -1.15%E -0.301%K -0.409%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.14%EV -3.03%E -0.891%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-05 12:30 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.15%EV -9.07%E -4.53%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 3.78I 26.46%NM 24.95%EV -1.67%E -0.441%K -0.599%G +0.000% | 3.38I 29.59%NM 27.90%EV -3.60%E -1.07%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-04 00:25 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.72%EV -3.61%E -1.70%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.85%EV -2.45%E -0.652%K -0.889%G +0.000% | 3.41I 29.33%NM 28.43%EV -2.75%E -0.805%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-05-05 14:15 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.36%EV -6.80%E -3.32%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.69%EV -3.75%E -1.01%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.95%EV -3.03%E -0.891%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-05 15:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -9.07%E -4.53%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -3.75%E -1.01%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -3.03%E -0.891%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-05 12:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -9.07%E -4.53%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -3.75%E -1.01%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -3.03%E -0.891%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-05 15:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -9.07%E -4.53%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -3.75%E -1.01%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -3.03%E -0.891%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-05 15:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -9.07%E -4.53%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -3.75%E -1.01%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -3.03%E -0.891%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-05 15:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.16%EV -10.43%E -5.30%K -10.76%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.11%EV -3.75%E -1.01%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.73%EV -4.46%E -1.33%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-05 12:30 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 46.98%EV -10.43%E -5.30%K -10.76%G +0.000% | 3.68I 27.17%NM 25.15%EV -4.27%E -1.16%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 27.87%EV -5.31%E -1.60%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-05 14:58 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.88%EV -3.61%E -1.70%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 3.63I 27.55%NM 26.21%EV -5.57%E -1.53%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 3.29I 30.40%NM 28.92%EV -6.17%E -1.87%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-05 22:35 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.09I 47.85%NM 44.97%EV -4.98%E -2.38%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.11%EV -6.35%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.92%EV -7.31%E -2.25%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-05 12:21 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.09I 47.85%NM 44.97%EV -4.98%E -2.38%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.11%EV -6.35%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.92%EV -7.31%E -2.25%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-05 22:15 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -6.80%E -3.32%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -6.35%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -5.88%E -1.78%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-05 15:03 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -6.80%E -3.32%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -6.35%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -5.88%E -1.78%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-05 13:09 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -9.07%E -4.53%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -6.35%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -5.88%E -1.78%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-05 15:00 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -11.34%E -5.82%K -11.94%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -6.35%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -5.88%E -1.78%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-05 12:29 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 46.65%EV -16.80%E -9.18%K -20.24%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 23.71%EV -6.35%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 29.64%EV -17.86%E -6.20%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 17.1% | 2026-05-05 12:29 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.30%EV -6.34%E -3.08%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 3.58I 27.93%NM 26.07%EV -6.87%E -1.92%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 3.26I 30.67%NM 28.63%EV -7.02%E -2.15%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-05 22:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.09I 47.85%NM 44.61%EV -4.98%E -2.38%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.26%EV -7.65%E -2.15%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -8.73%E -2.73%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-05 12:39 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.09I 47.85%NM 44.61%EV -4.98%E -2.38%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.26%EV -7.65%E -2.15%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -8.73%E -2.73%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-05 12:38 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 45.86%EV -10.43%E -5.30%K -10.76%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.45%EV -7.65%E -2.15%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.68%EV -10.16%E -3.23%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-05-05 15:19 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -4.52%E -2.15%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -8.95%E -2.56%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -11.59%E -3.74%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-05 15:32 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -6.80%E -3.32%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -8.95%E -2.56%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -8.73%E -2.73%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-05 15:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -6.80%E -3.32%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -8.95%E -2.56%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -8.73%E -2.73%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-05 15:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -6.80%E -3.32%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -8.95%E -2.56%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -8.73%E -2.73%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-05 15:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -6.80%E -3.32%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -8.95%E -2.56%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -8.73%E -2.73%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-05 15:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -6.80%E -3.32%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -8.95%E -2.56%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -8.73%E -2.73%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-05 16:00 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.71%EV -6.80%E -3.32%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -8.95%E -2.56%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.10%EV -10.16%E -3.23%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-05 15:35 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.73%EV -9.07%E -4.53%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.13%EV -8.95%E -2.56%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -7.31%E -2.25%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-05 12:14 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 46.60%EV -13.62%E -7.17%K -15.13%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.30%EV -8.95%E -2.56%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.11%EV -10.16%E -3.23%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-05-05 15:00 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.67%EV -15.89%E -8.59%K -18.69%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.20%EV -8.95%E -2.56%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.13%EV -7.31%E -2.25%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-05-05 12:29 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.92%EV -3.61%E -1.70%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -10.25%E -2.97%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -8.73%E -2.73%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-05 21:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.92%EV -3.61%E -1.70%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -10.25%E -2.97%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -8.73%E -2.73%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-05 21:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.78%EV -4.52%E -2.15%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -11.55%E -3.40%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%EV -10.16%E -3.23%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-05 15:19 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 45.76%EV -11.80%E -6.08%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.50%EV -12.85%E -3.84%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.74%EV -8.73%E -2.73%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-05-05 15:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 45.64%EV -15.43%E -8.30%K -17.95%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 26.53%EV -16.75%E -5.24%K -7.62%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 27.83%EV -13.01%E -4.27%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 17.8% | 2026-05-05 14:59 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.37% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.75% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.87% | 4.9% | 2026-05-05 15:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.37% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.75% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.87% | 4.9% | 2026-05-05 15:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.37% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.75% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.87% | 4.9% | 2026-05-05 15:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.04I 49.02%NM 38.58% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 36.44% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 24.98% | 27.1% | 2026-05-05 15:43 |