Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.92
assuming max odds 4.61
assuming max odds 3.80
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nacional (Local): 51.70%; CF Estrela (Visit): 22.52%; Draw: 25.79%. For CF Estrela (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.44. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.61, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.81%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 52.69%EV -4.88%E -2.65%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 4.61I 21.69%NM 21.03%EV +3.81%E +0.826%K +1.05%G +0.040% | 3.69I 27.10%NM 26.28%EV -4.85%E -1.32%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-04-04 14:24 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 52.51%EV -4.88%E -2.65%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 4.42I 22.62%NM 21.86%EV -0.471%E -0.107%K -0.138%G +0.000% | 3.77I 26.53%NM 25.63%EV -2.79%E -0.740%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-04-04 14:20 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.39%EV -6.95%E -3.86%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.78%EV -2.50%E -0.577%K -0.750%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.83%EV -5.88%E -1.61%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-04 14:19 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.89%EV -3.33%E -1.78%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.57%EV -3.17%E -0.738%K -0.962%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.54%EV -2.02%E -0.531%K -0.720%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-04-04 14:09 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.89%EV -3.33%E -1.78%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.57%EV -3.17%E -0.738%K -0.962%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.54%EV -2.02%E -0.531%K -0.720%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-04-04 14:09 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.12%EV -6.95%E -3.86%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -3.17%E -0.738%K -0.962%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.06%EV -7.17%E -1.99%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-04 14:09 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 51.03%EV -2.29%E -1.21%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 4.29I 23.31%NM 22.48%EV -3.40%E -0.792%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 3.64I 27.47%NM 26.49%EV -6.14%E -1.69%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-04-04 14:24 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.99%EV -6.95%E -3.86%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -4.30%E -1.01%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -7.17%E -1.99%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-04 14:10 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.98%EV -5.39%E -2.95%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -5.42%E -1.29%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.37%EV -3.31%E -0.882%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-04 14:15 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.85%EV -6.95%E -3.86%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -5.42%E -1.29%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -7.17%E -1.99%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-04 14:08 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.47%EV -6.95%E -3.86%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.06%EV -5.42%E -1.29%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -9.75%E -2.79%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-04 14:09 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.47%EV -6.95%E -3.86%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.06%EV -5.42%E -1.29%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -9.75%E -2.79%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-04 14:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -6.95%E -3.86%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -5.42%E -1.29%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -12.33%E -3.63%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-04 14:24 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -6.95%E -3.86%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -5.42%E -1.29%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -12.33%E -3.63%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-04 14:24 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -6.95%E -3.86%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -5.42%E -1.29%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -12.33%E -3.63%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-04 14:25 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -6.95%E -3.86%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -5.42%E -1.29%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -12.33%E -3.63%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-04 14:24 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.25%EV -5.91%E -3.25%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.48%EV -6.55%E -1.58%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -8.46%E -2.38%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-04 14:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.25%EV -5.91%E -3.25%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.48%EV -6.55%E -1.58%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -8.46%E -2.38%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-04 14:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.79%EV -6.95%E -3.86%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.46%EV -6.55%E -1.58%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 3.62I 27.62%NM 25.75%EV -6.66%E -1.84%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-04 14:25 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.18%EV -11.60%E -6.78%K -16.34%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 21.91%EV -6.55%E -1.58%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.91%EV -5.88%E -1.61%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-04 14:10 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.09%EV -1.26%E -0.659%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.33%EV -7.68%E -1.87%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.58%EV -7.17%E -1.99%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-04 13:44 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.52%EV -5.39%E -2.95%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.00%EV -7.68%E -1.87%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -4.60%E -1.24%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-04 14:09 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.34%EV -5.39%E -2.95%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -7.68%E -1.87%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.74%EV -5.88%E -1.61%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-04 13:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.30%EV -5.91%E -3.25%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.77%EV -7.68%E -1.87%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -7.17%E -1.99%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-04 14:15 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.28%EV -9.53%E -5.45%K -12.71%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.31%EV -7.68%E -1.87%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.41%EV -7.17%E -1.99%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-04 14:18 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.38%EV -10.56%E -6.11%K -14.47%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.10%EV -7.68%E -1.87%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.52%EV -8.46%E -2.38%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-04-04 14:09 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.13%EV -4.36%E -2.36%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -9.93%E -2.48%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -3.31%E -0.882%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-04 14:10 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.81%EV -6.95%E -3.86%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -9.93%E -2.48%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -3.31%E -0.882%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-04 14:09 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.32%EV -6.43%E -3.55%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -9.93%E -2.48%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.45%EV -5.88%E -1.61%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-04 14:14 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.82%EV -5.91%E -3.25%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -9.93%E -2.48%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.05%EV -8.46%E -2.38%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-04 14:19 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.50%EV -5.39%E -2.95%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.10%EV -9.93%E -2.48%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -9.75%E -2.79%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-04 14:25 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.50%EV -5.39%E -2.95%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.10%EV -9.93%E -2.48%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -9.75%E -2.79%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-04 14:09 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.61%EV -9.53%E -5.45%K -12.71%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -9.93%E -2.48%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -9.75%E -2.79%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-04-04 13:40 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.49%EV -6.95%E -3.86%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.46%EV -11.05%E -2.80%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -4.60%E -1.24%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-04 14:09 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.09%EV -5.39%E -2.95%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.97%EV -12.18%E -3.12%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -3.31%E -0.882%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-04 14:09 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.09%EV -5.39%E -2.95%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.97%EV -12.18%E -3.12%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -3.31%E -0.882%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-04 14:09 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.09%EV -5.39%E -2.95%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.97%EV -12.18%E -3.12%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -3.31%E -0.882%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-04 14:09 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.92%EV -5.39%E -2.95%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.89%EV -12.18%E -3.12%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -4.60%E -1.24%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-04 14:09 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.03%EV -0.742%E -0.386%K -0.806%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.45%EV -13.31%E -3.46%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.52%EV -8.46%E -2.38%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-04 14:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.03%EV -0.742%E -0.386%K -0.806%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.45%EV -13.31%E -3.46%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.52%EV -8.46%E -2.38%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-04 14:09 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.10%EV -7.98%E -4.48%K -10.23%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.63%EV -13.31%E -3.46%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.27%EV -7.17%E -1.99%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-04 14:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -1.26%E -0.659%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -14.43%E -3.80%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -9.75%E -2.79%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-04 14:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -1.26%E -0.659%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -14.43%E -3.80%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -9.75%E -2.79%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-04 14:09 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -1.26%E -0.659%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -14.43%E -3.80%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -9.75%E -2.79%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-04 14:10 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -1.26%E -0.659%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -14.43%E -3.80%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -9.75%E -2.79%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-04 14:09 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.08%EV -2.29%E -1.21%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.41%EV -14.43%E -3.80%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.50%EV -9.75%E -2.79%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-04 14:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.08%EV -2.29%E -1.21%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.41%EV -14.43%E -3.80%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.50%EV -9.75%E -2.79%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-04 14:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.22%EV -2.81%E -1.49%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -14.43%E -3.80%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.44%EV -9.75%E -2.79%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-04 14:14 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.22%EV -2.81%E -1.49%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -14.43%E -3.80%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.44%EV -9.75%E -2.79%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-04 14:09 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.22%EV -2.81%E -1.49%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -14.43%E -3.80%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.44%EV -9.75%E -2.79%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-04 14:09 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.87%EV -2.81%E -1.49%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.50%EV -15.56%E -4.15%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -11.04%E -3.20%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-04 14:09 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.87%EV -2.81%E -1.49%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.50%EV -15.56%E -4.15%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -11.04%E -3.20%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-04 14:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 49.52%EV -10.56%E -6.11%K -14.47%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 22.85%EV -15.56%E -4.15%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.64%EV -20.07%E -6.47%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 16.7% | 2026-04-04 13:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 48.98%EV -3.84%E -2.07%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.62%EV -16.68%E -4.51%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.40%EV -11.04%E -3.20%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-04 14:10 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.11%EV -4.36%E -2.36%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.56%EV -16.68%E -4.51%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.33%EV -11.04%E -3.20%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-04-04 14:09 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.03%EV -5.39%E -2.95%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.58%EV -17.81%E -4.88%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.39%EV -12.33%E -3.63%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-04-04 14:09 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.91I 52.36%NM 52.07% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.10% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.83% | 0.6% | 2026-04-04 14:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.90I 52.63%NM 52.20% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.04% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.76% | 0.8% | 2026-04-04 14:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.90I 52.63%NM 52.20% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.04% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.76% | 0.8% | 2026-04-04 14:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.90I 52.63%NM 52.20% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.04% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.76% | 0.8% | 2026-04-04 14:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.89I 52.91%NM 51.90% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.29% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.81% | 2.0% | 2026-04-04 14:20 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.92% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.12% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 26.96% | 3.9% | 2026-04-04 14:25 |