La escuela de los momios

Nacional v CF Estrela

Inicio: 2026-04-04 14:30 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Nacional (Local)

Predicción 51.70%1.93momio equitativo
EV -0.742%
Ventaja -0.386%
Kelly -0.806%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.92

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
48.82%51.53%51.78%53.18%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.711.831.831.9258.48%54.54%54.64%52.08%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

CF Estrela (Visitante)

Predicción 22.52%4.44momio equitativo
EV +3.81%
Ventaja +0.826%
Kelly +1.05%
Crecimiento +0.040%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.61

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.03%22.64%22.47%24.62%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.654.024.004.6127.40%24.87%25.00%21.69%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 25.79%3.88momio equitativo
EV -2.02%
Ventaja -0.531%
Kelly -0.720%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.87%25.82%25.75%27.64%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.103.573.553.8032.26%28.01%28.17%26.32%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet1.84I 54.35%NM 52.69%EV -4.88%E -2.65%K -5.81%G +0.000%4.61I 21.69%NM 21.03%EV +3.81%E +0.826%K +1.05%G +0.040%3.69I 27.10%NM 26.28%EV -4.85%E -1.32%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-04 14:24
Pinnacle1.84I 54.35%NM 52.51%EV -4.88%E -2.65%K -5.81%G +0.000%4.42I 22.62%NM 21.86%EV -0.471%E -0.107%K -0.138%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 25.63%EV -2.79%E -0.740%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-04 14:20
Everygame1.80I 55.56%NM 52.39%EV -6.95%E -3.86%K -8.68%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.78%EV -2.50%E -0.577%K -0.750%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.83%EV -5.88%E -1.61%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-04 14:19
LowVig.ag1.87I 53.48%NM 51.89%EV -3.33%E -1.78%K -3.82%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.57%EV -3.17%E -0.738%K -0.962%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.54%EV -2.02%E -0.531%K -0.720%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-04 14:09
BetOnline.ag1.87I 53.48%NM 51.89%EV -3.33%E -1.78%K -3.82%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.57%EV -3.17%E -0.738%K -0.962%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.54%EV -2.02%E -0.531%K -0.720%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-04 14:09
FanDuel1.80I 55.56%NM 52.12%EV -6.95%E -3.86%K -8.68%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -3.17%E -0.738%K -0.962%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.06%EV -7.17%E -1.99%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-04 14:09
GTbets1.89I 52.91%NM 51.03%EV -2.29%E -1.21%K -2.58%G +0.000%4.29I 23.31%NM 22.48%EV -3.40%E -0.792%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.49%EV -6.14%E -1.69%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-04 14:24
PointsBet (AU)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.99%EV -6.95%E -3.86%K -8.68%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -4.30%E -1.01%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -7.17%E -1.99%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-04 14:10
Coolbet1.83I 54.64%NM 51.98%EV -5.39%E -2.95%K -6.50%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -5.42%E -1.29%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.37%EV -3.31%E -0.882%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-04 14:15
Tipico (DE)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.85%EV -6.95%E -3.86%K -8.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -5.42%E -1.29%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -7.17%E -1.99%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 14:08
SportsBet1.80I 55.56%NM 51.47%EV -6.95%E -3.86%K -8.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.06%EV -5.42%E -1.29%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -9.75%E -2.79%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-04 14:09
Paddy Power1.80I 55.56%NM 51.47%EV -6.95%E -3.86%K -8.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.06%EV -5.42%E -1.29%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -9.75%E -2.79%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-04 14:10
William Hill1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -6.95%E -3.86%K -8.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -5.42%E -1.29%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -12.33%E -3.63%K -5.14%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-04 14:24
888sport1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -6.95%E -3.86%K -8.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -5.42%E -1.29%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -12.33%E -3.63%K -5.14%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-04 14:24
Mr Green (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -6.95%E -3.86%K -8.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -5.42%E -1.29%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -12.33%E -3.63%K -5.14%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-04 14:25
888sport (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -6.95%E -3.86%K -8.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -5.42%E -1.29%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -12.33%E -3.63%K -5.14%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-04 14:24
Betsson1.82I 54.95%NM 51.25%EV -5.91%E -3.25%K -7.21%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.48%EV -6.55%E -1.58%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -8.46%E -2.38%K -3.32%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-04 14:20
NordicBet1.82I 54.95%NM 51.25%EV -5.91%E -3.25%K -7.21%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.48%EV -6.55%E -1.58%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -8.46%E -2.38%K -3.32%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-04 14:20
Marathon Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 51.79%EV -6.95%E -3.86%K -8.68%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.46%EV -6.55%E -1.58%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 25.75%EV -6.66%E -1.84%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-04 14:25
Betclic (FR)1.71I 58.48%NM 53.18%EV -11.60%E -6.78%K -16.34%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.91%EV -6.55%E -1.58%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.91%EV -5.88%E -1.61%K -2.22%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-04 14:10
Fanatics1.91I 52.36%NM 50.09%EV -1.26%E -0.659%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.33%EV -7.68%E -1.87%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.58%EV -7.17%E -1.99%K -2.76%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-04 13:44
DraftKings1.83I 54.64%NM 51.52%EV -5.39%E -2.95%K -6.50%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.00%EV -7.68%E -1.87%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -4.60%E -1.24%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-04 14:09
BetUS1.83I 54.64%NM 51.34%EV -5.39%E -2.95%K -6.50%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -7.68%E -1.87%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.74%EV -5.88%E -1.61%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-04 13:40
Betr (AU)1.82I 54.95%NM 51.30%EV -5.91%E -3.25%K -7.21%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.77%EV -7.68%E -1.87%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -7.17%E -1.99%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 14:15
Bet Victor1.75I 57.14%NM 52.28%EV -9.53%E -5.45%K -12.71%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.31%EV -7.68%E -1.87%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.41%EV -7.17%E -1.99%K -2.76%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-04 14:18
NetBet (FR)1.73I 57.80%NM 52.38%EV -10.56%E -6.11%K -14.47%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.10%EV -7.68%E -1.87%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.52%EV -8.46%E -2.38%K -3.32%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-04 14:09
Coral1.85I 54.05%NM 51.13%EV -4.36%E -2.36%K -5.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -9.93%E -2.48%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -3.31%E -0.882%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-04 14:10
Sky Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 51.81%EV -6.95%E -3.86%K -8.68%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -9.93%E -2.48%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -3.31%E -0.882%K -1.20%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-04 14:09
Bet Right1.81I 55.25%NM 51.32%EV -6.43%E -3.55%K -7.94%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -9.93%E -2.48%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.45%EV -5.88%E -1.61%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-04 14:14
PlayUp1.82I 54.95%NM 50.82%EV -5.91%E -3.25%K -7.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -9.93%E -2.48%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.05%EV -8.46%E -2.38%K -3.32%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-04 14:19
Betway1.83I 54.64%NM 50.50%EV -5.39%E -2.95%K -6.50%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.10%EV -9.93%E -2.48%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -9.75%E -2.79%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-04 14:25
Unibet (FR)1.83I 54.64%NM 50.50%EV -5.39%E -2.95%K -6.50%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.10%EV -9.93%E -2.48%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -9.75%E -2.79%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-04 14:09
BoyleSports1.75I 57.14%NM 51.61%EV -9.53%E -5.45%K -12.71%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -9.93%E -2.48%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -9.75%E -2.79%K -3.90%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-04 13:40
Winamax (DE)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.49%EV -6.95%E -3.86%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.46%EV -11.05%E -2.80%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -4.60%E -1.24%K -1.70%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-04 14:09
Ladbrokes (UK)1.83I 54.64%NM 51.09%EV -5.39%E -2.95%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.97%EV -12.18%E -3.12%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -3.31%E -0.882%K -1.20%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-04 14:09
Neds1.83I 54.64%NM 51.09%EV -5.39%E -2.95%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.97%EV -12.18%E -3.12%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -3.31%E -0.882%K -1.20%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-04 14:09
Ladbrokes (AU)1.83I 54.64%NM 51.09%EV -5.39%E -2.95%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.97%EV -12.18%E -3.12%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -3.31%E -0.882%K -1.20%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-04 14:09
BetMGM1.83I 54.64%NM 50.92%EV -5.39%E -2.95%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.89%EV -12.18%E -3.12%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -4.60%E -1.24%K -1.70%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-04 14:09
Svenska Spel1.92I 52.08%NM 49.03%EV -0.742%E -0.386%K -0.806%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.45%EV -13.31%E -3.46%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.52%EV -8.46%E -2.38%K -3.32%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 14:10
ATG (SE)1.92I 52.08%NM 49.03%EV -0.742%E -0.386%K -0.806%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.45%EV -13.31%E -3.46%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.52%EV -8.46%E -2.38%K -3.32%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 14:09
Winamax (FR)1.78I 56.18%NM 51.10%EV -7.98%E -4.48%K -10.23%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.63%EV -13.31%E -3.46%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.27%EV -7.17%E -1.99%K -2.76%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-04 14:10
Casumo1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -1.26%E -0.659%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -14.43%E -3.80%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -9.75%E -2.79%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-04 14:10
Grosvenor1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -1.26%E -0.659%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -14.43%E -3.80%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -9.75%E -2.79%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-04 14:09
betPARX1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -1.26%E -0.659%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -14.43%E -3.80%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -9.75%E -2.79%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-04 14:10
Bally Bet1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -1.26%E -0.659%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -14.43%E -3.80%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -9.75%E -2.79%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-04 14:09
BetRivers1.89I 52.91%NM 49.08%EV -2.29%E -1.21%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.41%EV -14.43%E -3.80%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.50%EV -9.75%E -2.79%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-04 14:10
TABtouch1.89I 52.91%NM 49.08%EV -2.29%E -1.21%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.41%EV -14.43%E -3.80%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.50%EV -9.75%E -2.79%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-04 14:15
Unibet1.88I 53.19%NM 49.22%EV -2.81%E -1.49%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -14.43%E -3.80%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.44%EV -9.75%E -2.79%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-04 14:14
Unibet (SE)1.88I 53.19%NM 49.22%EV -2.81%E -1.49%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -14.43%E -3.80%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.44%EV -9.75%E -2.79%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-04 14:09
Unibet (NL)1.88I 53.19%NM 49.22%EV -2.81%E -1.49%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -14.43%E -3.80%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.44%EV -9.75%E -2.79%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-04 14:09
LiveScore Bet1.88I 53.19%NM 48.87%EV -2.81%E -1.49%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.50%EV -15.56%E -4.15%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -11.04%E -3.20%K -4.51%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-04 14:09
LeoVegas (SE)1.88I 53.19%NM 48.87%EV -2.81%E -1.49%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.50%EV -15.56%E -4.15%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -11.04%E -3.20%K -4.51%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-04 14:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 49.52%EV -10.56%E -6.11%K -14.47%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.85%EV -15.56%E -4.15%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.64%EV -20.07%E -6.47%K -9.56%G +0.000%16.7%2026-04-04 13:55
Virgin Bet1.86I 53.76%NM 48.98%EV -3.84%E -2.07%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.62%EV -16.68%E -4.51%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.40%EV -11.04%E -3.20%K -4.51%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-04 14:10
PMU (FR)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.11%EV -4.36%E -2.36%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.56%EV -16.68%E -4.51%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.33%EV -11.04%E -3.20%K -4.51%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-04 14:09
LeoVegas1.83I 54.64%NM 49.03%EV -5.39%E -2.95%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.58%EV -17.81%E -4.88%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.39%EV -12.33%E -3.63%K -5.14%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-04 14:09
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.91I 52.36%NM 52.07%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.10%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.83%0.6%2026-04-04 14:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.90I 52.63%NM 52.20%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.04%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.76%0.8%2026-04-04 14:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.90I 52.63%NM 52.20%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.04%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.76%0.8%2026-04-04 14:25
Matchbook1.90I 52.63%NM 52.20%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.04%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.76%0.8%2026-04-04 14:25
Smarkets1.89I 52.91%NM 51.90%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.29%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.81%2.0%2026-04-04 14:20
Kalshi1.89I 52.91%NM 50.92%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.12%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.96%3.9%2026-04-04 14:25