L’École des cotes

Nacional v CF Estrela

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-04 14:30 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

56 opérateurs (19 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Nacional (Local)

Prévision 51.70%1.93cote équitable
EV -0.742%
Avantage -0.386%
Kelly -0.806%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.92

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
48.82%51.53%51.78%53.18%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.711.831.831.9258.48%54.54%54.64%52.08%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

CF Estrela (Visiteur)

Prévision 22.52%4.44cote équitable
EV +3.81%
Avantage +0.826%
Kelly +1.05%
Croissance +0.040%

avec la cote maximale 4.61

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
21.03%22.64%22.47%24.62%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.654.024.004.6127.40%24.87%25.00%21.69%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 25.79%3.88cote équitable
EV -2.02%
Avantage -0.531%
Kelly -0.720%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.80

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
24.87%25.82%25.75%27.64%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.103.573.553.8032.26%28.01%28.17%26.32%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (56 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
1xBet1.84I 54.35%NM 52.69%EV -4.88%E -2.65%K -5.81%G +0.000%4.61I 21.69%NM 21.03%EV +3.81%E +0.826%K +1.05%G +0.040%3.69I 27.10%NM 26.28%EV -4.85%E -1.32%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-04 14:24
Pinnacle1.84I 54.35%NM 52.51%EV -4.88%E -2.65%K -5.81%G +0.000%4.42I 22.62%NM 21.86%EV -0.471%E -0.107%K -0.138%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 25.63%EV -2.79%E -0.740%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-04 14:20
Everygame1.80I 55.56%NM 52.39%EV -6.95%E -3.86%K -8.68%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.78%EV -2.50%E -0.577%K -0.750%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.83%EV -5.88%E -1.61%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-04 14:19
LowVig.ag1.87I 53.48%NM 51.89%EV -3.33%E -1.78%K -3.82%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.57%EV -3.17%E -0.738%K -0.962%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.54%EV -2.02%E -0.531%K -0.720%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-04 14:09
BetOnline.ag1.87I 53.48%NM 51.89%EV -3.33%E -1.78%K -3.82%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.57%EV -3.17%E -0.738%K -0.962%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.54%EV -2.02%E -0.531%K -0.720%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-04 14:09
FanDuel1.80I 55.56%NM 52.12%EV -6.95%E -3.86%K -8.68%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -3.17%E -0.738%K -0.962%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.06%EV -7.17%E -1.99%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-04 14:09
GTbets1.89I 52.91%NM 51.03%EV -2.29%E -1.21%K -2.58%G +0.000%4.29I 23.31%NM 22.48%EV -3.40%E -0.792%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.49%EV -6.14%E -1.69%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-04 14:24
PointsBet (AU)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.99%EV -6.95%E -3.86%K -8.68%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -4.30%E -1.01%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -7.17%E -1.99%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-04 14:10
Coolbet1.83I 54.64%NM 51.98%EV -5.39%E -2.95%K -6.50%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -5.42%E -1.29%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.37%EV -3.31%E -0.882%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-04 14:15
Tipico (DE)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.85%EV -6.95%E -3.86%K -8.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -5.42%E -1.29%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -7.17%E -1.99%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 14:08
SportsBet1.80I 55.56%NM 51.47%EV -6.95%E -3.86%K -8.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.06%EV -5.42%E -1.29%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -9.75%E -2.79%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-04 14:09
Paddy Power1.80I 55.56%NM 51.47%EV -6.95%E -3.86%K -8.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.06%EV -5.42%E -1.29%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -9.75%E -2.79%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-04 14:10
William Hill1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -6.95%E -3.86%K -8.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -5.42%E -1.29%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -12.33%E -3.63%K -5.14%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-04 14:24
888sport1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -6.95%E -3.86%K -8.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -5.42%E -1.29%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -12.33%E -3.63%K -5.14%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-04 14:24
Mr Green (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -6.95%E -3.86%K -8.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -5.42%E -1.29%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -12.33%E -3.63%K -5.14%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-04 14:25
888sport (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -6.95%E -3.86%K -8.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -5.42%E -1.29%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -12.33%E -3.63%K -5.14%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-04 14:24
Betsson1.82I 54.95%NM 51.25%EV -5.91%E -3.25%K -7.21%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.48%EV -6.55%E -1.58%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -8.46%E -2.38%K -3.32%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-04 14:20
NordicBet1.82I 54.95%NM 51.25%EV -5.91%E -3.25%K -7.21%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.48%EV -6.55%E -1.58%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -8.46%E -2.38%K -3.32%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-04 14:20
Marathon Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 51.79%EV -6.95%E -3.86%K -8.68%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.46%EV -6.55%E -1.58%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 25.75%EV -6.66%E -1.84%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-04 14:25
Betclic (FR)1.71I 58.48%NM 53.18%EV -11.60%E -6.78%K -16.34%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.91%EV -6.55%E -1.58%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.91%EV -5.88%E -1.61%K -2.22%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-04 14:10
Fanatics1.91I 52.36%NM 50.09%EV -1.26%E -0.659%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.33%EV -7.68%E -1.87%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.58%EV -7.17%E -1.99%K -2.76%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-04 13:44
DraftKings1.83I 54.64%NM 51.52%EV -5.39%E -2.95%K -6.50%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.00%EV -7.68%E -1.87%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -4.60%E -1.24%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-04 14:09
BetUS1.83I 54.64%NM 51.34%EV -5.39%E -2.95%K -6.50%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -7.68%E -1.87%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.74%EV -5.88%E -1.61%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-04 13:40
Betr (AU)1.82I 54.95%NM 51.30%EV -5.91%E -3.25%K -7.21%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.77%EV -7.68%E -1.87%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -7.17%E -1.99%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 14:15
Bet Victor1.75I 57.14%NM 52.28%EV -9.53%E -5.45%K -12.71%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.31%EV -7.68%E -1.87%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.41%EV -7.17%E -1.99%K -2.76%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-04 14:18
NetBet (FR)1.73I 57.80%NM 52.38%EV -10.56%E -6.11%K -14.47%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.10%EV -7.68%E -1.87%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.52%EV -8.46%E -2.38%K -3.32%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-04 14:09
Coral1.85I 54.05%NM 51.13%EV -4.36%E -2.36%K -5.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -9.93%E -2.48%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -3.31%E -0.882%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-04 14:10
Sky Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 51.81%EV -6.95%E -3.86%K -8.68%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -9.93%E -2.48%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -3.31%E -0.882%K -1.20%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-04 14:09
Bet Right1.81I 55.25%NM 51.32%EV -6.43%E -3.55%K -7.94%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -9.93%E -2.48%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.45%EV -5.88%E -1.61%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-04 14:14
PlayUp1.82I 54.95%NM 50.82%EV -5.91%E -3.25%K -7.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -9.93%E -2.48%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.05%EV -8.46%E -2.38%K -3.32%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-04 14:19
Betway1.83I 54.64%NM 50.50%EV -5.39%E -2.95%K -6.50%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.10%EV -9.93%E -2.48%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -9.75%E -2.79%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-04 14:25
Unibet (FR)1.83I 54.64%NM 50.50%EV -5.39%E -2.95%K -6.50%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.10%EV -9.93%E -2.48%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -9.75%E -2.79%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-04 14:09
BoyleSports1.75I 57.14%NM 51.61%EV -9.53%E -5.45%K -12.71%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -9.93%E -2.48%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -9.75%E -2.79%K -3.90%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-04 13:40
Winamax (DE)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.49%EV -6.95%E -3.86%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.46%EV -11.05%E -2.80%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -4.60%E -1.24%K -1.70%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-04 14:09
Ladbrokes (UK)1.83I 54.64%NM 51.09%EV -5.39%E -2.95%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.97%EV -12.18%E -3.12%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -3.31%E -0.882%K -1.20%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-04 14:09
Neds1.83I 54.64%NM 51.09%EV -5.39%E -2.95%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.97%EV -12.18%E -3.12%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -3.31%E -0.882%K -1.20%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-04 14:09
Ladbrokes (AU)1.83I 54.64%NM 51.09%EV -5.39%E -2.95%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.97%EV -12.18%E -3.12%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -3.31%E -0.882%K -1.20%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-04 14:09
BetMGM1.83I 54.64%NM 50.92%EV -5.39%E -2.95%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.89%EV -12.18%E -3.12%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -4.60%E -1.24%K -1.70%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-04 14:09
Svenska Spel1.92I 52.08%NM 49.03%EV -0.742%E -0.386%K -0.806%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.45%EV -13.31%E -3.46%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.52%EV -8.46%E -2.38%K -3.32%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 14:10
ATG (SE)1.92I 52.08%NM 49.03%EV -0.742%E -0.386%K -0.806%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.45%EV -13.31%E -3.46%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.52%EV -8.46%E -2.38%K -3.32%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 14:09
Winamax (FR)1.78I 56.18%NM 51.10%EV -7.98%E -4.48%K -10.23%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.63%EV -13.31%E -3.46%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.27%EV -7.17%E -1.99%K -2.76%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-04 14:10
Casumo1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -1.26%E -0.659%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -14.43%E -3.80%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -9.75%E -2.79%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-04 14:10
Grosvenor1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -1.26%E -0.659%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -14.43%E -3.80%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -9.75%E -2.79%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-04 14:09
betPARX1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -1.26%E -0.659%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -14.43%E -3.80%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -9.75%E -2.79%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-04 14:10
Bally Bet1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -1.26%E -0.659%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -14.43%E -3.80%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -9.75%E -2.79%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-04 14:09
BetRivers1.89I 52.91%NM 49.08%EV -2.29%E -1.21%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.41%EV -14.43%E -3.80%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.50%EV -9.75%E -2.79%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-04 14:10
TABtouch1.89I 52.91%NM 49.08%EV -2.29%E -1.21%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.41%EV -14.43%E -3.80%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.50%EV -9.75%E -2.79%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-04 14:15
Unibet1.88I 53.19%NM 49.22%EV -2.81%E -1.49%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -14.43%E -3.80%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.44%EV -9.75%E -2.79%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-04 14:14
Unibet (SE)1.88I 53.19%NM 49.22%EV -2.81%E -1.49%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -14.43%E -3.80%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.44%EV -9.75%E -2.79%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-04 14:09
Unibet (NL)1.88I 53.19%NM 49.22%EV -2.81%E -1.49%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -14.43%E -3.80%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.44%EV -9.75%E -2.79%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-04 14:09
LiveScore Bet1.88I 53.19%NM 48.87%EV -2.81%E -1.49%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.50%EV -15.56%E -4.15%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -11.04%E -3.20%K -4.51%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-04 14:09
LeoVegas (SE)1.88I 53.19%NM 48.87%EV -2.81%E -1.49%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.50%EV -15.56%E -4.15%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -11.04%E -3.20%K -4.51%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-04 14:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 49.52%EV -10.56%E -6.11%K -14.47%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.85%EV -15.56%E -4.15%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.64%EV -20.07%E -6.47%K -9.56%G +0.000%16.7%2026-04-04 13:55
Virgin Bet1.86I 53.76%NM 48.98%EV -3.84%E -2.07%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.62%EV -16.68%E -4.51%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.40%EV -11.04%E -3.20%K -4.51%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-04 14:10
PMU (FR)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.11%EV -4.36%E -2.36%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.56%EV -16.68%E -4.51%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.33%EV -11.04%E -3.20%K -4.51%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-04 14:09
LeoVegas1.83I 54.64%NM 49.03%EV -5.39%E -2.95%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.58%EV -17.81%E -4.88%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.39%EV -12.33%E -3.63%K -5.14%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-04 14:09
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.91I 52.36%NM 52.07%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.10%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.83%0.6%2026-04-04 14:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.90I 52.63%NM 52.20%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.04%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.76%0.8%2026-04-04 14:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.90I 52.63%NM 52.20%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.04%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.76%0.8%2026-04-04 14:25
Matchbook1.90I 52.63%NM 52.20%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.04%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.76%0.8%2026-04-04 14:25
Smarkets1.89I 52.91%NM 51.90%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.29%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.81%2.0%2026-04-04 14:20
Kalshi1.89I 52.91%NM 50.92%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.12%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.96%3.9%2026-04-04 14:25