Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nacional v Braga

Kickoff: 2026-02-28 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nacional (Local)

Prediction 15.73%6.36fair odd
EV +2.22%
Edge +0.342%
Kelly +0.404%
Growth +0.009%

assuming max odds 6.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.35%15.70%15.70%17.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.406.016.006.5018.52%16.65%16.67%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Braga (Visit)

Prediction 62.21%1.61fair odd
EV -2.96%
Edge -1.89%
Kelly -5.28%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.59%62.22%62.24%63.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.421.491.501.5670.42%66.90%66.67%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.07%4.53fair odd
EV -0.704%
Edge -0.157%
Kelly -0.201%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.13%22.08%22.07%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.604.214.204.5027.78%23.73%23.81%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nacional (Local): 15.73%; Braga (Visit): 62.21%; Draw: 22.07%. For Nacional (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.36. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.22%.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.41%EV +2.22%E +0.342%K +0.404%G +0.009%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.29%EV -7.93%E -5.36%K -16.53%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.30%EV -7.32%E -1.74%K -2.29%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-28 17:29
Tipico (DE)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.35%EV +2.22%E +0.342%K +0.404%G +0.009%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.45%EV -8.55%E -5.82%K -18.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.21%EV -7.32%E -1.74%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-28 17:30
Pinnacle🎯6.40I 15.63%NM 15.04%EV +0.648%E +0.101%K +0.120%G +0.001%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.89%EV -4.82%E -3.15%K -9.10%G +0.000%4.36I 22.94%NM 22.07%EV -3.79%E -0.870%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.9%2026-02-28 17:44
Casumo🎯6.40I 15.63%NM 14.64%EV +0.648%E +0.101%K +0.120%G +0.001%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.31%EV -7.93%E -5.36%K -16.53%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.05%EV -6.22%E -1.46%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-28 17:39
Grosvenor🎯6.40I 15.63%NM 14.64%EV +0.648%E +0.101%K +0.120%G +0.001%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.31%EV -7.93%E -5.36%K -16.53%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.05%EV -6.22%E -1.46%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-28 17:39
Bally Bet🎯6.40I 15.63%NM 14.64%EV +0.648%E +0.101%K +0.120%G +0.001%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.31%EV -7.93%E -5.36%K -16.53%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.05%EV -6.22%E -1.46%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-28 17:40
ATG (SE)🎯6.40I 15.63%NM 14.64%EV +0.648%E +0.101%K +0.120%G +0.001%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.31%EV -7.93%E -5.36%K -16.53%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.05%EV -6.22%E -1.46%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-28 17:40
Svenska Spel🎯6.40I 15.63%NM 14.64%EV +0.648%E +0.101%K +0.120%G +0.001%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.31%EV -7.93%E -5.36%K -16.53%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.05%EV -6.22%E -1.46%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-28 17:40
betPARX🎯6.40I 15.63%NM 14.64%EV +0.648%E +0.101%K +0.120%G +0.001%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.31%EV -7.93%E -5.36%K -16.53%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.05%EV -6.22%E -1.46%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-28 17:39
LowVig.ag🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 15.50%EV -1.71%E -0.274%K -0.326%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 62.49%EV -3.58%E -2.31%K -6.50%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.01%EV -2.91%E -0.662%K -0.856%G +0.000%3.2%2026-02-28 17:24
BetOnline.ag🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 15.50%EV -1.71%E -0.274%K -0.326%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 62.49%EV -3.58%E -2.31%K -6.50%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.01%EV -2.91%E -0.662%K -0.856%G +0.000%3.2%2026-02-28 17:24
Coolbet🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 15.21%EV -1.71%E -0.274%K -0.326%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.15%EV -4.82%E -3.15%K -9.10%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.64%EV -7.32%E -1.74%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-28 17:23
Unibet🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.84%EV -1.71%E -0.274%K -0.326%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.08%EV -8.55%E -5.82%K -18.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.08%EV -7.32%E -1.74%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-28 17:39
Unibet (NL)🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.84%EV -1.71%E -0.274%K -0.326%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.08%EV -8.55%E -5.82%K -18.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.08%EV -7.32%E -1.74%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-28 17:39
TABtouch🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.84%EV -1.71%E -0.274%K -0.326%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.08%EV -8.55%E -5.82%K -18.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.08%EV -7.32%E -1.74%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-28 17:40
Unibet (SE)🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.84%EV -1.71%E -0.274%K -0.326%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.08%EV -8.55%E -5.82%K -18.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.08%EV -7.32%E -1.74%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-28 17:39
BetRivers🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.84%EV -1.71%E -0.274%K -0.326%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.08%EV -8.55%E -5.82%K -18.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.08%EV -7.32%E -1.74%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-28 17:39
LiveScore Bet🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.77%EV -1.71%E -0.274%K -0.326%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 63.24%EV -9.18%E -6.29%K -19.95%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.98%EV -7.32%E -1.74%K -2.29%G +0.000%8.3%2026-02-28 17:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.71%EV -1.71%E -0.274%K -0.326%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.40%EV -9.80%E -6.76%K -21.77%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -7.32%E -1.74%K -2.29%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-28 17:40
1xBet🎯6.19I 16.16%NM 15.68%EV -2.65%E -0.429%K -0.512%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 62.61%EV -3.58%E -2.31%K -6.50%G +0.000%4.47I 22.37%NM 21.71%EV -1.37%E -0.306%K -0.394%G +0.000%3.0%2026-02-28 17:50
Betclic (FR)🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 15.63%EV -4.07%E -0.667%K -0.798%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.71%EV -5.44%E -3.58%K -10.47%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.66%EV -2.91%E -0.662%K -0.856%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-28 17:43
Virgin Bet🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 14.87%EV -4.07%E -0.667%K -0.798%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.00%EV -10.42%E -7.24%K -23.68%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.13%EV -9.53%E -2.32%K -3.07%G +0.000%10.2%2026-02-28 17:39
LeoVegas🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 14.74%EV -4.07%E -0.667%K -0.798%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 63.33%EV -11.66%E -8.21%K -27.77%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.93%EV -9.53%E -2.32%K -3.07%G +0.000%11.2%2026-02-28 17:39
DraftKings🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.78%EV -5.64%E -0.940%K -1.13%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.70%EV -6.07%E -4.02%K -11.89%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.52%EV -2.91%E -0.662%K -0.856%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-28 17:54
Sky Bet🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.71%EV -5.64%E -0.940%K -1.13%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.86%EV -6.69%E -4.46%K -13.38%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -2.91%E -0.662%K -0.856%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-28 17:30
Fanatics🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.64%EV -5.64%E -0.940%K -1.13%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.55%EV -6.69%E -4.46%K -13.38%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -5.12%E -1.19%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-28 17:34
Bovada🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.64%EV -5.64%E -0.940%K -1.13%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.55%EV -6.69%E -4.46%K -13.38%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -5.12%E -1.19%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-28 17:40
BetUS🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.64%EV -5.64%E -0.940%K -1.13%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.55%EV -6.69%E -4.46%K -13.38%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -5.12%E -1.19%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-28 17:29
Betr (AU)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.60%EV -5.64%E -0.940%K -1.13%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 61.57%EV -5.44%E -3.58%K -10.47%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.83%EV -9.53%E -2.32%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-28 17:40
Paddy Power🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -5.64%E -0.940%K -1.13%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -6.69%E -4.46%K -13.38%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -7.32%E -1.74%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-28 17:30
Everygame🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -5.64%E -0.940%K -1.13%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -6.69%E -4.46%K -13.38%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -7.32%E -1.74%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-28 17:45
Bet Right🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.51%EV -5.64%E -0.940%K -1.13%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 61.22%EV -5.44%E -3.58%K -10.47%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.27%EV -11.74%E -2.93%K -3.91%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-28 17:24
SportsBet🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.36%EV -5.64%E -0.940%K -1.13%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 62.70%EV -8.55%E -5.82%K -18.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.94%EV -7.32%E -1.74%K -2.29%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-28 17:35
PMU (FR)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.13%EV -5.64%E -0.940%K -1.13%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 62.18%EV -9.18%E -6.29%K -19.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.69%EV -11.74%E -2.93%K -3.91%G +0.000%10.2%2026-02-28 17:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 14.63%EV -5.64%E -0.940%K -1.13%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 60.98%EV -10.42%E -7.24%K -23.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.39%EV -20.56%E -5.71%K -7.91%G +0.000%13.9%2026-02-28 17:30
Marathon Bet🎯5.95I 16.81%NM 15.67%EV -6.43%E -1.08%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.14%EV -6.69%E -4.46%K -13.38%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -7.32%E -1.74%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-28 17:30
NordicBet🎯5.90I 16.95%NM 15.86%EV -7.22%E -1.22%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 61.58%EV -5.44%E -3.58%K -10.47%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.55%EV -8.43%E -2.03%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-28 17:55
Betsson🎯5.90I 16.95%NM 15.86%EV -7.22%E -1.22%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 61.58%EV -5.44%E -3.58%K -10.47%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.55%EV -8.43%E -2.03%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-28 17:55
Parions Sport (FR)🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 15.83%EV -8.79%E -1.52%K -1.83%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.04%EV -7.93%E -5.36%K -16.53%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.13%EV -8.43%E -2.03%K -2.68%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-28 17:39
William Hill🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 15.83%EV -8.79%E -1.52%K -1.83%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.21%EV -6.69%E -4.46%K -13.38%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -11.74%E -2.93%K -3.91%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-28 17:50
Coral🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.57%EV -9.57%E -1.67%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.26%EV -4.82%E -3.15%K -9.10%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.17%EV -0.704%E -0.157%K -0.201%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-28 17:39
Betway🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.10%EV -9.57%E -1.67%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.53%EV -7.93%E -5.36%K -16.53%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.37%EV -4.46%E -1.03%K -1.34%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-28 17:55
888sport🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -9.57%E -1.67%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.13%EV -6.69%E -4.46%K -13.38%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -11.74%E -2.93%K -3.91%G +0.000%9.1%2026-02-28 17:50
888sport (SE)🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -9.57%E -1.67%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.13%EV -6.69%E -4.46%K -13.38%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -11.74%E -2.93%K -3.91%G +0.000%9.1%2026-02-28 17:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -9.57%E -1.67%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.13%EV -6.69%E -4.46%K -13.38%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -11.74%E -2.93%K -3.91%G +0.000%9.1%2026-02-28 17:50
GTbets🎯5.74I 17.42%NM 16.47%EV -9.73%E -1.70%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.59%EV -2.96%E -1.89%K -5.28%G +0.000%4.12I 24.27%NM 22.94%EV -9.09%E -2.21%K -2.91%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-28 17:39
Winamax (DE)🎯5.70I 17.54%NM 16.41%EV -10.36%E -1.82%K -2.20%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.34%EV -6.69%E -4.46%K -13.38%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.25%EV -2.91%E -0.662%K -0.856%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-28 17:39
Winamax (FR)🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 16.43%EV -11.93%E -2.13%K -2.59%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.17%EV -7.93%E -5.36%K -16.53%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.40%EV -5.12%E -1.19%K -1.55%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-28 17:45
NetBet (FR)🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 16.19%EV -11.93%E -2.13%K -2.59%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 61.69%EV -8.55%E -5.82%K -18.20%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.12%EV -9.53%E -2.32%K -3.07%G +0.000%10.3%2026-02-28 17:53
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.11%EV -13.51%E -2.46%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.50%EV -4.82%E -3.15%K -9.10%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.39%EV -2.91%E -0.662%K -0.856%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-28 17:39
BetMGM🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -13.51%E -2.46%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.97%EV -6.69%E -4.46%K -13.38%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.13%EV -2.91%E -0.662%K -0.856%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-28 17:39
BoyleSports🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -13.51%E -2.46%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -6.69%E -4.46%K -13.38%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -11.74%E -2.93%K -3.91%G +0.000%9.8%2026-02-28 17:19
Bet Victor🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -13.51%E -2.46%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -6.69%E -4.46%K -13.38%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -11.74%E -2.93%K -3.91%G +0.000%9.8%2026-02-28 17:54
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.30%EV -15.08%E -2.79%K -3.43%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 61.47%EV -5.44%E -3.58%K -10.47%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.23%EV -2.91%E -0.662%K -0.856%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-28 17:39
Neds🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.30%EV -15.08%E -2.79%K -3.43%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 61.47%EV -5.44%E -3.58%K -10.47%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.23%EV -2.91%E -0.662%K -0.856%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-28 17:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)7.00I 14.29%NM 14.20%1.56I 64.10%NM 63.71%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.09%0.6%2026-02-28 17:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)7.00I 14.29%NM 14.14%1.55I 64.52%NM 63.86%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.00%1.0%2026-02-28 17:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)7.00I 14.29%NM 14.08%1.54I 64.94%NM 64.01%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.91%1.4%2026-02-28 17:55
Matchbook7.00I 14.29%NM 14.08%1.54I 64.94%NM 64.01%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.91%1.4%2026-02-28 17:54
Smarkets7.00I 14.29%NM 14.01%1.54I 64.94%NM 63.69%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.29%1.9%2026-02-28 17:39