Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.17
assuming max odds 24.00
assuming max odds 9.00
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Porto (Local): 81.98%; Tondela (Visit): 4.86%; Draw: 13.15%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.60. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +18.39%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.02%EV -9.00%E -8.11%K -81.80%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.49%EV +2.10%E +0.100%K +0.105%G +0.002% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.49%EV +18.39%E +2.04%K +2.30%G +0.423% | 6.0% | 2026-04-19 19:30 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.10%EV -9.00%E -8.11%K -81.80%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.91%EV -7.62%E -0.401%K -0.424%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.98%EV +11.82%E +1.39%K +1.58%G +0.186% | 7.1% | 2026-04-19 19:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.92%EV -9.00%E -8.11%K -81.80%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.44%EV +2.10%E +0.100%K +0.105%G +0.002% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.64%EV +5.24%E +0.655%K +0.748%G +0.039% | 7.4% | 2026-04-19 19:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.92%EV -9.00%E -8.11%K -81.80%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.44%EV +2.10%E +0.100%K +0.105%G +0.002% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.64%EV +5.24%E +0.655%K +0.748%G +0.039% | 7.4% | 2026-04-19 19:30 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.04%EV -9.82%E -8.93%K -98.18%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.40%EV +2.10%E +0.100%K +0.105%G +0.002% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.56%EV +5.24%E +0.655%K +0.748%G +0.039% | 8.2% | 2026-04-19 19:30 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 83.79%EV -4.90%E -4.22%K -30.62%G +0.000% | 24.00I 4.17%NM 4.05%EV +16.69%E +0.695%K +0.725%G +0.121% | 7.99I 12.52%NM 12.16%EV +5.11%E +0.639%K +0.731%G +0.037% | 2.9% | 2026-04-19 19:29 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.64%EV -4.08%E -3.49%K -24.00%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.62%EV -17.35%E -1.02%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.74%EV -1.34%E -0.179%K -0.206%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-19 19:31 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.08%E -3.49%K -24.00%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.32%EV -27.07%E -1.80%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.64%EV -1.34%E -0.179%K -0.206%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-19 19:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.33%EV -4.90%E -4.22%K -30.62%G +0.000% | 15.50I 6.45%NM 6.09%EV -24.64%E -1.59%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.58%EV -1.34%E -0.179%K -0.206%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-19 19:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.51%EV -6.54%E -5.74%K -46.71%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.95%EV -7.62%E -0.401%K -0.424%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.54%EV -1.34%E -0.179%K -0.206%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-19 19:31 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.02%EV -7.36%E -6.51%K -56.61%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.47%EV +2.10%E +0.100%K +0.105%G +0.002% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.51%EV -1.34%E -0.179%K -0.206%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-19 19:31 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.33%EV -5.72%E -4.97%K -38.13%G +0.000% | 15.50I 6.45%NM 6.03%EV -24.64%E -1.59%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 12.64%EV -2.65%E -0.359%K -0.415%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-19 19:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.33%EV -5.72%E -4.97%K -38.13%G +0.000% | 15.50I 6.45%NM 6.03%EV -24.64%E -1.59%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 12.64%EV -2.65%E -0.359%K -0.415%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-19 19:30 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.01%EV -8.18%E -7.30%K -68.16%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.43%EV +2.10%E +0.100%K +0.105%G +0.002% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 12.56%EV -2.65%E -0.359%K -0.415%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-19 19:29 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.86%EV -4.90%E -4.22%K -30.62%G +0.000% | 23.32I 4.29%NM 4.12%EV +13.38%E +0.574%K +0.599%G +0.080% | 7.38I 13.55%NM 13.02%EV -2.92%E -0.395%K -0.457%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-04-19 19:29 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.23%EV -6.54%E -5.74%K -46.71%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.93%EV -7.62%E -0.401%K -0.424%G +0.000% | 7.30I 13.70%NM 12.84%EV -3.97%E -0.544%K -0.630%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-19 19:29 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.35%EV -4.08%E -3.49%K -24.00%G +0.000% | 21.80I 4.59%NM 4.42%EV +5.99%E +0.275%K +0.288%G +0.017% | 7.28I 13.74%NM 13.23%EV -4.23%E -0.581%K -0.674%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-19 19:29 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.36%EV -6.54%E -5.74%K -46.71%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.69%EV -2.76%E -0.138%K -0.145%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.95%EV -4.63%E -0.638%K -0.740%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-19 19:28 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.36%EV -6.54%E -5.74%K -46.71%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.69%EV -2.76%E -0.138%K -0.145%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.95%EV -4.63%E -0.638%K -0.740%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-19 19:29 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.46%EV -4.90%E -4.22%K -30.62%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.67%EV -31.93%E -2.28%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.87%EV -4.63%E -0.638%K -0.740%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-19 19:29 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.46%EV -4.90%E -4.22%K -30.62%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.67%EV -31.93%E -2.28%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.87%EV -4.63%E -0.638%K -0.740%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-19 19:29 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.91%EV -4.08%E -3.49%K -24.00%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.57%EV -17.35%E -1.02%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.52%EV -7.92%E -1.13%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-19 19:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.91%EV -4.08%E -3.49%K -24.00%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.57%EV -17.35%E -1.02%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.52%EV -7.92%E -1.13%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-19 19:30 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -5.72%E -4.97%K -38.13%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.49%EV +2.10%E +0.100%K +0.105%G +0.002% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -7.92%E -1.13%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-19 19:29 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -5.72%E -4.97%K -38.13%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.49%EV +2.10%E +0.100%K +0.105%G +0.002% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -7.92%E -1.13%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-19 19:29 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -5.72%E -4.97%K -38.13%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.49%EV +2.10%E +0.100%K +0.105%G +0.002% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -7.92%E -1.13%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-19 19:29 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.76%EV -4.90%E -4.22%K -30.62%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.86%EV -22.21%E -1.39%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -7.92%E -1.13%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-19 19:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.76%EV -4.90%E -4.22%K -30.62%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.86%EV -22.21%E -1.39%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -7.92%E -1.13%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-19 19:31 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.76%EV -4.90%E -4.22%K -30.62%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.86%EV -22.21%E -1.39%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -7.92%E -1.13%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-19 19:30 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.76%EV -4.90%E -4.22%K -30.62%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.86%EV -22.21%E -1.39%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -7.92%E -1.13%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-19 19:30 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.16%EV -6.54%E -5.74%K -46.71%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.46%EV +2.10%E +0.100%K +0.105%G +0.002% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -7.92%E -1.13%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-19 19:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.16%EV -6.54%E -5.74%K -46.71%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.46%EV +2.10%E +0.100%K +0.105%G +0.002% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -7.92%E -1.13%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-19 19:31 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.90%EV -5.72%E -4.97%K -38.13%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.81%EV -22.21%E -1.39%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.29%EV -7.92%E -1.13%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-19 19:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.31%EV -6.54%E -5.74%K -46.71%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.45%EV -17.35%E -1.02%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -7.92%E -1.13%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-19 19:30 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 81.57%EV -8.18%E -7.30%K -68.16%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.37%EV -17.35%E -1.02%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -7.92%E -1.13%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-19 19:29 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.62%EV -5.72%E -4.97%K -38.13%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.47%EV +2.10%E +0.100%K +0.105%G +0.002% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.91%EV -11.21%E -1.66%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-19 19:29 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.13%EV -5.72%E -4.97%K -38.13%G +0.000% | 18.50I 5.41%NM 5.04%EV -10.06%E -0.544%K -0.575%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.82%EV -11.21%E -1.66%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-19 19:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.50%EV -5.72%E -4.97%K -38.13%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.79%EV -22.21%E -1.39%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.71%EV -11.21%E -1.66%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-19 19:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.50%EV -5.72%E -4.97%K -38.13%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.79%EV -22.21%E -1.39%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.71%EV -11.21%E -1.66%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-19 19:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.50%EV -5.72%E -4.97%K -38.13%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.79%EV -22.21%E -1.39%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.71%EV -11.21%E -1.66%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-19 19:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.50%EV -5.72%E -4.97%K -38.13%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.79%EV -22.21%E -1.39%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.71%EV -11.21%E -1.66%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-19 19:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 80.64%EV -6.54%E -5.74%K -46.71%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.75%EV -22.21%E -1.39%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.62%EV -11.21%E -1.66%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-19 19:31 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 80.64%EV -6.54%E -5.74%K -46.71%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.75%EV -22.21%E -1.39%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.62%EV -11.21%E -1.66%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-19 19:30 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 80.33%EV -6.54%E -5.74%K -46.71%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -27.07%E -1.80%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.57%EV -11.21%E -1.66%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-19 19:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.08%EV -4.08%E -3.49%K -24.00%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.51%EV -17.35%E -1.02%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.41%EV -14.49%E -2.23%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-19 19:29 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.19%EV -5.72%E -4.97%K -38.13%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.45%EV +2.10%E +0.100%K +0.105%G +0.002% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -14.49%E -2.23%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-19 19:30 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.35%EV -5.72%E -4.97%K -38.13%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.44%EV -17.35%E -1.02%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.22%EV -14.49%E -2.23%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-19 19:29 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.08%EV -5.72%E -4.97%K -38.13%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.76%EV -22.21%E -1.39%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -14.49%E -2.23%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-19 19:29 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 79.91%EV -6.54%E -5.74%K -46.71%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.07%EV -27.07%E -1.80%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.02%EV -14.49%E -2.23%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-19 19:29 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 80.36%EV -7.36%E -6.51%K -56.61%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.68%EV -22.21%E -1.39%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.97%EV -14.49%E -2.23%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-04-19 19:31 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 80.36%EV -7.36%E -6.51%K -56.61%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.68%EV -22.21%E -1.39%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.97%EV -14.49%E -2.23%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-04-19 19:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 81.55%EV -9.00%E -8.11%K -81.80%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.53%EV -2.76%E -0.138%K -0.145%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.93%EV -14.49%E -2.23%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-04-19 19:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 80.05%EV -7.36%E -6.51%K -56.61%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.03%EV -27.07%E -1.80%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.92%EV -14.49%E -2.23%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-04-19 19:30 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 80.50%EV -8.18%E -7.30%K -68.16%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.63%EV -22.21%E -1.39%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.87%EV -14.49%E -2.23%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-04-19 19:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.17%EV -5.72%E -4.97%K -38.13%G +0.000% | 22.00I 4.55%NM 4.24%EV +6.96%E +0.316%K +0.332%G +0.023% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.59%EV -15.81%E -2.47%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-19 19:31 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.17%EV -5.72%E -4.97%K -38.13%G +0.000% | 22.00I 4.55%NM 4.24%EV +6.96%E +0.316%K +0.332%G +0.023% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.59%EV -15.81%E -2.47%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-19 19:31 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.16I 86.21%NM 85.85% | 28.00I 3.57%NM 3.56% | 9.40I 10.64%NM 10.59% | 0.4% | 2026-04-19 19:31 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.16I 86.21%NM 85.54% | 27.00I 3.70%NM 3.68% | 9.20I 10.87%NM 10.79% | 0.8% | 2026-04-19 19:30 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.16I 86.21%NM 85.54% | 27.00I 3.70%NM 3.68% | 9.20I 10.87%NM 10.79% | 0.8% | 2026-04-19 19:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.16I 86.21%NM 85.45% | 28.00I 3.57%NM 3.54% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 11.01% | 0.9% | 2026-04-19 19:31 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.15I 86.96%NM 85.45% | 27.03I 3.70%NM 3.64% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.92% | 1.8% | 2026-04-19 19:31 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.15I 86.96%NM 85.29% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.92% | 9.09I 11.00%NM 10.79% | 2.0% | 2026-04-19 19:30 |